Editorial Note: NVDA at $192.53 RSI 37.9 is the cleanest AI-infra entry setup in the cohort this week. The stock has pulled back -7.28% in 7D and -9.33% in 30D, but the golden cross remains firmly intact and the 3M return of +15.07% confirms the Blackwell ramp thesis is still running. RSI 37.9 is the deepest oversold-adjacent read in this series so far — and it has arrived at a structurally significant level: the SMA200 at $190.43 is only 1.1% below current price. Price at $192.53 is just 3.27% above VWAP ($186.44), meaning the stock is now trading near the average cost of all market participants over the past period — not extended, not dislocated to the downside, just sitting at equilibrium. The -7.3% below SMA20 ($207.71) shows the near-term trend is weak but the golden cross (SMA50 $209.92 > SMA200 $190.43) remains intact — the structural signal that brought NVDA out of the April hole has not reversed. Regime "pullback" confirms this reads as healthy digestion of the Blackwell ramp, not a Blackwell thesis break. The prior base target of $212 (reached in May) has pulled back to $207 SMA20 — now the first reclaim target. The EOW direction: NVDA is the member of the AI-infra cohort that held structural integrity (golden cross, pullback regime, SMA200 support within reach) while MSFT/ORCL/PLTR broke structure entirely. At RSI 37.9 with SMA200 only 1% below, this is the re-entry zone the Blackwell thesis warrants.

2026-07-11 tape check: The entry-zone call played out. NVDA bounced from $192.53 to $210.96 (+9.6%), RSI recovered from 37.9 to 57.2, and price has reclaimed SMA20 ($201.95, +4.5% above) — exceeding the prior $207 base target. It's now only +0.9% above SMA50 ($209.07) and +10.2% above SMA200 ($191.47); golden cross remains intact throughout. 7D +7.32%, 30D +2.97% (flipped positive from -9.33%), and drawdown from the 52-week high improved to -10.81% (from -18.61%). 3M ticked down to +11.57% from +15.07% — a rolling-window base effect, not a reversal, given the outright price gain and every other indicator improving. No divergence: this is the thesis confirming cleanly. Next reference point is the $250+ bull target.

2026-07-17 tape check: A pullback has erased the 07/11 bounce. NVDA $202.81, RSI 48.1 (down from 57.2), now essentially flat vs SMA20 (+0.3%, down from +4.5%) and -3.3% below SMA50 (was +0.9% above). 7D -2.21%, 30D -3.74% (flipped negative), 3M +0.49% (flat). -14.26% from 52wk high (widened from -10.81%). Golden cross still intact (+5.5% above SMA200), regime "pullback," thesis flag "intact." No new fundamentals re-researched — this reads as digesting the 07/11 bounce rather than a fresh breakdown.

2026-07-25 tape check (Friday 2026-07-24 close): The digestion has resolved back upward. NVDA $206.84 (+2.0% vs $202.81), RSI 51 (up from 48.1) — +1.7% above SMA20 (up from +0.3%) and -1.1% below SMA50 (narrowed from -3.3%). 7D has flipped positive to +1.99% (from -2.21%), 30D has flipped positive to +3.94% (from -3.74%), and 3M is roughly flat at -0.57% (from +0.49%). -11.74% from 52wk high — narrowed from -14.26%. Golden cross still intact (+7.3% above SMA200), regime "pullback," thesis flag "intact." No new fundamentals re-researched.

2026-07-28 tape check: The upward resolution has reversed. NVDA $197.01 (-4.75% vs $206.84), RSI 43 (down from 51) — back to -3.3% below SMA20 (from +1.7% above) and -5.2% below SMA50 (widened from -1.1%). 7D has flipped negative to -4.96% (from +1.99%), 30D has moderated to +1.05% (from +3.94%), and 3M has deepened to -5.74% (from -0.57%). -16.71% from 52wk high — widened from -11.74%. Golden cross still intact (+2.2% above SMA200, a narrower cushion than +7.3%), regime "pullback," thesis flag "intact." No new fundamentals re-researched; this reads as a fresh leg of digestion within the pullback, not a break of the Blackwell ramp thesis.

2026-07-31 tape note: NVDA $200.75 (+1.90% vs $197.01), RSI 48.6 (warmed from 43). 7D -2.94% (moderated from -4.96%), 30D +1.60% (accelerated from +1.05%), 3M +1.28% (turned positive from -5.74%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -15.13% (narrowed from -16.71%). Per the tape: trend "weak-down", regime "pullback", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: NVDA $223.96 (+11.56% vs $200.75), RSI 64.5 (warmed from 48.6). 7D +11.56% (turned positive from -2.94%), 30D +9.72% (accelerated from +1.60%), 3M +4.19% (accelerated from +1.28%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -7.32% (narrowed from -15.13%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "uptrend", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: NVDA $225.16 (+0.54% vs $223.96), RSI 62.8 (cooled from 64.5). 7D +0.54% (moderated from +11.56%), 30D +5.96% (moderated from +9.72%), 3M +0.04% (moderated from +4.19%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -4.75% (narrowed from -7.32%). Per the tape: trend "strong-up", regime "basing", golden cross intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

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Quick Snapshot

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Action Matrix

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Price Data

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Key Changes vs 07/28

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Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).