Editorial Note: SOFI has continued its recovery and extended it materially. At the May 29 refresh (RSI 64.3, $18.22, +13.17% 30D, weak-up, -44.33% from 52wk high), the read was "inflected but fragile — the recovery is recent." As of 2026-06-16, SOFI is at $17.71, RSI 57.2 — a moderate -2.8% pullback from the prior $18.22 peak, RSI cooled from 64.3 to 57.2 (still in the bullish zone), and the SMA20 ($16.63) has risen significantly from the prior $16.05, meaning SOFI is now +6.5% above SMA20. The 3M +1.96% confirms the 90-day trend is barely positive — all the recent momentum has been concentrated in the 30D window (+12.73%). The 30D +12.73% and 7D +2.15% show momentum is intact if cooling slightly. The -45.89% from 52wk high is still the structural reality — significant damage to repair. The setup now: weak-up trend with healthy RSI 57, SMA20 rising, near the prior $16.50-$17 ideal re-entry zone from May 29. This is the holding zone — the recovery hasn't broken, but it hasn't accelerated either.

2026-07-11 tape note: SOFI $18.78 (07-10), RSI 60.5 — up +6.0% from the $17.71 (06-16) checkpoint. SMA20 rose again to $17.73 (+5.9% above, similar spread to prior). 30D essentially flat at +12.66%; 3M turned materially positive at +10.15% (from +1.96%) — this directly answers the "does 3M turn materially positive (>10%) over the next 30 days" open question from 06-16 in the affirmative. -42.62% from 52wk high (improved from -45.89%). Trend "weak-up" though summary regime reads "downtrend" (death cross persists, no golden cross) — same mixed-signal pattern as the 06-16 read, not a new contradiction.

2026-07-17 tape note: The recovery has reversed. SOFI $17.28 (07-16), RSI 45.9 (down from 60.5) — down -8.0% from the $18.78 checkpoint, now -3.5% below SMA20 ($17.91) for the first time in this file's recent history, though still +1.5% above SMA50. 7D -7.99%, 30D -3.52% (flipped negative from +12.66%), 3M -11.38% (flipped negative from +10.15%). -47.2% from 52wk high (widened from -42.62%). No new fundamentals re-researched; this reverses the constructive momentum flagged 07/11 — worth a closer look at what drove the pullback.

2026-07-25 tape note: The pullback has extended. SOFI $16.46 (07-24), RSI 40.7 (down from 45.9) — down -4.75% from the $17.28 checkpoint, now -7.6% below SMA20 ($17.81) and -3.8% below SMA50 ($17.12) for the first time in this file's recent history, a new SMA50 breach. 7D -4.75%, 30D -4.91% (worsened from -3.52%), 3M -10.74% (modestly improved from -11.38%). -49.13% from 52wk high (widened from -47.2%). No new fundamentals re-researched; this extends the reversal flagged 07/17, not a stabilization.

2026-07-28 tape note: A modest bounce, still below both moving averages. SOFI $16.74 (07-28), RSI 44.4 (up from 40.7) — up +1.7% from the $16.46 checkpoint, now -5.3% below SMA20 (narrowed from -7.6%) and -2.5% below SMA50 (narrowed from -3.8%, still breached). 7D -5.1% (roughly flat vs -4.75%), 30D -7.97% (worsened from -4.91%), 3M has swung to +7.86% (from -10.74%, a base-effect move as the window rolls). -48.85% from 52wk high (narrowed slightly from -49.13%). No new fundamentals re-researched; this reads as a modest bounce within the ongoing pullback, not a stabilization. 2026-07-31 tape note: SOFI $16.31 (-2.57% vs $16.74), RSI 44 (roughly flat from 44.4). 7D -0.91% (moderated from -5.10%), 30D -11.55% (deepened from -7.97%), 3M -0.73% (turned negative from +7.86%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -50.17% (widened from -48.85%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "downtrend", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: SOFI $18.38 (+12.69% vs $16.31), RSI 56.5 (warmed from 44.0). 7D +12.69% (turned positive from -0.91%), 30D +3.67% (turned positive from -11.55%), 3M +16.70% (turned positive from -0.73%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -44.24% (narrowed from -50.17%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: SOFI $18.29 (-0.49% vs $18.38), RSI 55.6 (cooled from 56.5). 7D -0.49% (turned negative from +12.69%), 30D +2.35% (moderated from +3.67%), 3M +17.17% (roughly flat from +16.70%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -43.69% (narrowed from -44.24%). Per the tape: trend "weak-up", regime "downtrend", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).

Price Data

Key Changes vs 2026-07-28

Δ Since April 10 Refresh (full context)

Action Matrix

Context

At the April 10 refresh, SOFI was approaching oversold (RSI 39.2), strong-down, death cross active, -50.6% from 52wk high. At May 29 (RSI 64.3, $18.22), the trend had fully reversed to weak-up. Now at June 16 (RSI 57.2, $17.71), the recovery has paused: a -2.8% pullback from the May peak, RSI cooling toward neutral-bullish (57 vs 64 prior), but critically the SMA20 has risen from $16.05 to $16.63 — which means the trend is consolidating with a rising floor, not breaking down.

The 3M +1.96% is the key read for the medium-term frame: essentially flat over 90 days means all the recovery came in the most recent 30-45 day window. This is a stock in a short-term recovery, not a confirmed multi-month uptrend. The -45.89% from 52wk high is still the ceiling; SOFI needs to prove the weak-up trend holds before adding conviction.

The rate macro thesis hasn't changed: SOFI's lending business (student loan refi, personal loans, mortgage) is sensitive to Fed rate policy. Any hawkish pivot re-pressures the name. The 3M barely positive (+1.96%) suggests the macro tailwind hasn't been confirmed yet — the recovery is more technical than fundamental.

Key questions:

• Did Q1 2026 show lending volume growth and improved net interest margins?
• Is the SMA20 ($16.63) holding as support on any further pullback?
• Does the 3M turn materially positive (>10%) over the next 30 days, confirming the trend?

Research Log

Sources

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
• Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).