Article published Aug 14, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Editorial Note: TSLA at $407.76 RSI 51.5 has meaningfully recovered from the broken-cohort read at June 26 ($379.71, RSI 41.4, full inverted MA stack). Price is back above SMA20 ($400.88, +1.7%) and now only marginally below SMA50 (-0.4%) and SMA200 (-2.5%) — the full inverted stack has closed to near-flat. 7D is a modest +0.62% and 30D +2.16%, both far calmer than the -8.46%/-13.77% deterioration flagged on 06/26. From 52wk high has narrowed to -18.26% (vs -23.88%). RSI 51.5 is now comfortably neutral and above the 45 threshold the 06/26 note set as a re-engagement condition, and SMA20 has been reclaimed — two of the three stated conditions ("wait for death cross resolution + RSI > 45 + SMA20 reclaim") are now satisfied even though the death cross itself has not technically resolved (still flagged
true) and the summary trend label still reads "strong-down."Tape-vs-thesis note (2026-07-11): The summary's
trend: strong-downlabel is now stale relative to the underlying numbers — price is +1.7% above SMA20, only -0.4%/-2.5% below SMA50/SMA200, and RSI is neutral at 51.5, none of which reads as "strong-down" in isolation. Regime tag has also shifted from "pullback" (matching current row) withthesis flag: intact. Treat the categorical trend/death-cross labels here as lagging the price recovery; the raw MA/RSI numbers argue for re-scoring the setup rather than trusting the label at face value.Tape-vs-thesis note (2026-07-17): This cycle, the "strong-down" label caught up with the tape. TSLA $380.84, RSI 42.5 (down from 51.5), now -4.3% below SMA20, -7.1% below SMA50, -8.7% below SMA200 — the inverted stack the 07/11 note flagged as "closed" has reopened. 7D -6.6%, 30D -4.91% (flipped negative), 3M -2.97% (flipped negative from +15.7%). -23.65% from 52wk high (widened from -18.26%). Death cross flag still
true, regime "pullback," thesis flag "intact." No new fundamentals re-researched — the re-scoring flagged 07/11 has resolved toward the bearish label, not away from it.2026-07-25 tape note (Friday 2026-07-24 close): TSLA has broken decisively lower. $313.03, RSI 28.1 (down sharply from 42.5) — the deepest oversold reading in this series. Price is now -19.5% below SMA20, -22.2% below SMA50, -24.5% below SMA200 — the inverted stack, reopened at 07/17, has widened further across all three moving averages. 7D -17.81%, 30D -16.64% (deepened from -4.91%), 3M -16.81% (deepened from -2.97%). -35.91% from 52wk high (widened sharply from -23.65%). Death cross flag still
true, regime has shifted from "pullback" to "collapse." No new fundamentals re-researched.Recent developments: TSLA fell 13% on Thursday after Tesla reaffirmed plans to sharply increase AI infrastructure spending — per FinanceCharts (2026-07-24). The same week, Tesla disclosed a $1.95 billion AI hardware acquisition completed in Q2 2026, with the target and technology undisclosed in the SEC filing — per The Electric Viking (2026-07-25). The available news file does not attribute the break to insider buying.
2026-07-28 tape note: The oversold break has continued at a similar pace, not stabilized. $307.44 (-1.8% vs $313.03), RSI 27.4 (essentially flat, still the deepest oversold read in this series). Price is now -19.1% below SMA20, -22.6% below SMA50, -25.6% below SMA200 — roughly the same gaps as 07/25, meaning the stock has not recovered any ground. 7D -18.87% (deepened from -17.81%), 30D -25.35% (deepened sharply from -16.64%), 3M -17.53% (roughly flat vs -16.81%). -38.37% from 52wk high — widened from -35.91%. Death cross flag still
true, regime remains "collapse." No new fundamentals re-researched beyond the AI-infrastructure-spending news already captured 07/25; no further news identified attributing this session's move.
2026-07-31 tape note: TSLA $311.21 (+1.23% vs $307.44), RSI 31.9 (warmed from 27.4). 7D -0.58% (moderated from -18.87%), 30D -26.83% (deepened from -25.35%), 3M -20.37% (deepened from -17.53%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -37.61% (narrowed from -38.37%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "collapse", no golden cross. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-07-31 close). 2026-08-08 tape note: TSLA $328.58 (+5.58% vs $311.21), RSI 41.5 (warmed from 31.9). 7D +5.58% (turned positive from -0.58%), 30D -16.62% (moderated from -26.83%), 3M -23.29% (deepened from -20.37%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -35.54% (narrowed from -37.61%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "collapse", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-07 close). 2026-08-14 tape note: TSLA $342.27 (+4.17% vs $328.58), RSI 48.7 (warmed from 41.5). 7D +4.17% (moderated from +5.58%), 30D -13.23% (moderated from -16.62%), 3M -18.94% (moderated from -23.29%). From the 52-week high, the gap is -31.85% (narrowed from -35.54%). Per the tape: trend "strong-down", regime "collapse", death cross confirmed. No new fundamentals re-researched. Per the full-scan summaries (2026-08-14 close).
Quick Snapshot
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 31.9 | neutral, warmed from 27.4 |
| Trend (label) | Strong-down | Unchanged |
| Death cross | Yes (flag) | Still open, gap roughly flat |
| SMA20 vs Price | -14.5% below | narrowed |
| SMA50 vs Price | -20.4% below | narrowed |
| SMA200 vs Price | -24.4% below | narrowed |
| 7D return | -0.58% | moderated from -18.87% |
| 30D return | -26.83% | deepened from -25.35% |
| 3M return | -20.37% | deepened from -17.53% |
| From 52wk High | -37.61% | Gap narrowed from -38.37% |
Action Matrix
| Scenario | Level | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry zone | $340–$370 | Prior range — price ($313.03) has now drifted below this zone |
| Stop-loss | $275 | Below major structure |
| Target (base) | $398 | SMA20 reclaim — further away this cycle |
| Target (bull) | $499 | Prior 52wk high |
| Current | RSI 31.9, strong-down | collapse, -37.6% from 52wk high |
Price Data
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Price | $342.27 |
| RSI (14) | 48.7 |
| SMA20 | $329.14 (+4.0%) |
| SMA50 | $371.09 (-7.8%) |
| SMA200 | $406.08 (-15.7%) |
| Trend | strong-down |
| Golden cross | No |
| Regime | collapse |
| 7D | +4.17% |
| 30D | -13.23% |
| 3M | -18.94% |
| From 52wk High | -31.85% |
Key Changes vs 07/28
| Metric | 07/28 | 07/31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $307.44 | $311.21 | up |
| RSI | 27.4 | 31.9 | warmed |
| Trend (label) | Strong-down | Strong-down | Unchanged |
| SMA20 vs Price | -19.1% | -14.5% | narrowed |
| SMA50 vs Price | -22.6% | -20.4% | narrowed |
| SMA200 vs Price | -25.6% | -14.5% | narrowed |
| 7D | -18.87% | -0.58% | moderated |
| 30D | -25.35% | -26.83% | deepened |
| From 52wkHi | -38.37% | -37.61% | narrowed |
| Verdict | Tape update: price now $311.21 (+1.2% vs prior refresh), RSI 31.9, trend "strong-down", -37.6% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched this cycle. |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | TSLA $435.79, RSI 60.1, up; +14.19% 30D. Death cross resolved. Entry zone $300-340 had been hit and price recovered. Flag for human review. |
| 2026-06-16 | TSLA $404.66, RSI 48.1, neutral; -1.3% 30D, +1.35% 3M. Softened; below SMA20, -18.88% from 52wkHi. No new entry signal. |
| 2026-06-26 | TSLA $379.71, RSI 41.4, strong-down; -8.46% 7D, -13.77% 30D, +4.94% 3M. Death cross re-confirmed since 06/16. Full inverted MA stack ($401/$404/$417 overhead). VWAP $396.65 also overhead. Broken-cohort alongside MSFT/ORCL/PLTR. RSI 41.4 approaching oversold but mechanical floor lower in death-cross regime. From 52wkHi deepened to -23.88%. No entry; wait for death cross resolution + RSI > 45 + SMA20 reclaim. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | TSLA $407.76, RSI 51.5, +0.62% 7D, +2.16% 30D, +15.7% 3M. Reclaimed SMA20 (+1.7%), nearly flat vs SMA50 (-0.4%) and SMA200 (-2.5%) — inverted stack has closed. RSI back above the 45 re-engagement threshold set 06/26. Trend label/death-cross flag still read "strong-down"/true and appear stale vs the underlying numbers — flagged as a tape-vs-thesis divergence. From 52wkHi narrowed to -18.26%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | TSLA $380.84, RSI 42.5, strong-down; -6.6% 7D, -4.91% 30D, -2.97% 3M. Lost the SMA20 reclaim, back -4.3%/-7.1%/-8.7% below SMA20/50/200 — the inverted stack has reopened. From 52wkHi widened to -23.65%. The 07/11 tape-vs-thesis divergence has resolved toward the bearish label. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | TSLA $313.03, RSI 28.1, strong-down; -17.81% 7D, -16.64% 30D, -16.81% 3M. Oversold break — -19.5%/-22.2%/-24.5% below SMA20/50/200, regime shifted from pullback to collapse. From 52wkHi widened to -35.91%. Recent developments: TSLA fell 13% Thursday after reaffirming plans to sharply increase AI infrastructure spending (FinanceCharts, 2026-07-24); Tesla also disclosed a $1.95B AI hardware acquisition with undisclosed terms (The Electric Viking, 2026-07-25). No insider-buying attribution found in the available news file. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | TSLA $307.44, RSI 27.4, strong-down; -18.87% 7D, -25.35% 30D, -17.53% 3M. Oversold break has held, not stabilized — SMA gaps roughly flat vs 07/25, regime remains collapse. From 52wkHi widened to -38.37%. No new news identified attributing this session's move; no new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | TSLA $311.21, RSI 31.9, strong-down; 7D -0.58%; 30D -26.83%; 3M -20.37%; -37.61% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | TSLA $328.58, RSI 41.5, strong-down; 7D +5.58%; 30D -16.62%; 3M -23.29%; -35.54% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | TSLA $342.27, RSI 48.7, strong-down; 7D +4.17%; 30D -13.23%; 3M -18.94%; -31.85% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
Sources
- Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-31 close — *.
- News: latest (fetched 2026-07-25).
- Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log (refreshed each full scan).