Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
ARM Price Structure
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Arm is recovering from a deep pullback inside a long uptrend: down 17.5% since June 29, but up 18.5% since August 28, and 33.3% above its 200-day average, up 102.7% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, ARM $283.33 was +4.8% versus its 20-day average and +18.5% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $1.29B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $1.05B, that is +22.4% year over year. The stock closed 37.4% below its high after an 8.7% session decline; the agent-CPU thesis needs royalty proof beyond the re-rating. The standing call is 🟡 Wait for a held pullback. The $276–$295 zone was reached on September 28, but the 8.7% drop and pending event check do not establish support; reassess after stabilization.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟡 Wait for a held pullback. The $276–$295 zone was reached on September 28, but the 8.7% drop and pending event check do not establish support; reassess after stabilization. |
| What it is | The dominant CPU instruction-set architecture: Arm licenses designs and collects royalties on chips used in phones, data-center servers, PCs and cars, and is expanding into its own compute products. |
| Why now | Prior case (2026-09-23): Consumer AI agents run on CPUs. On September 21 CNBC traced a CPU rally — Arm +17.16%, Intel +12.16%, AMD +9.95% — to demand around Meta's Muse agent app, per the desk's September 21 brief. |
| Proof | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-29: revenue $1.29B. Prior case: The fiscal first-quarter 2027 release (July 29) reported revenue growth and progress toward management's $2B AGI CPU target, per the company newsroom and its SEC 6-K. |
| Objection | The stock closed 37.4% below its high after an 8.7% session decline; the agent-CPU thesis needs royalty proof beyond the re-rating. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; +4.8% versus the 20-day, +33.3% versus the 200-day, RSI 52. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
Current status (2026-09-28): 🟡 Wait for a held pullback. The $276–$295 zone was reached on September 28, but the 8.7% drop and pending event check do not establish support; reassess after stabilization. The listed levels below record the prior conditional plan and require a new review before use.
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | A pullback holds $276–$295, above the September 18 breakout close of $275.61 | Entry; the breakout survived its first test. |
| 🟡 Wait | Price stays extended well above the 20-day (about $263) with RSI above 70 | No entry; chasing a vertical week is the pattern the desk's call record says loses. |
| 🔴 Out | After an entry, a close below $255 | The breakout failed back into the summer range. |
| 🟠 Target | $430, the prior high area | First target; trail rather than sell all. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | The November 4 print shows royalty growth slowing or the CPU bid fades within the week | The agent-CPU story was a headline, not demand. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Arm is recovering from a deep pullback inside a long uptrend: down 17.5% since June 29, but up 18.5% since August 28, and 33.3% above its 200-day average, up 102.7% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: ARM $283.33, RSI 52, strong-up, +4.8% vs SMA20, +33.3% vs SMA200, 7D -12.2%, 30D +18.5%, 1Y +102.7%, -37.4% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $276–$295 prior pullback zone was reached after an 8.7% session decline; the move has no verified company-specific cause in the current news receipt, so the pullback condition alone is not confirmation.
Business and mechanism. The dominant CPU instruction-set architecture: Arm licenses designs and collects royalties on chips used in phones, data-center servers, PCs and cars, and is expanding into its own compute products.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Consumer AI agents run on CPUs. On September 21 CNBC traced a CPU rally — Arm +17.16%, Intel +12.16%, AMD +9.95% — to demand around Meta's Muse agent app, per the desk's September 21 brief.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The fiscal first-quarter 2027 release (July 29) reported revenue growth and progress toward management's $2B AGI CPU target, per the company newsroom and its SEC 6-K.
The countercase. The stock closed 37.4% below its high after an 8.7% session decline; the agent-CPU thesis needs royalty proof beyond the re-rating.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $1.29B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $1.05B, that is +22.4% year over year.
Recent source context. Arm's September 28 issuer blog describes its CPU and DPU role in NVIDIA's Open Agent Safety Platform. It supplies product-positioning evidence for the agent infrastructure thesis, but gives no new royalty, shipment or revenue figure and does not explain the 8.7% share-price decline.
News and attention check. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or forecast pages and missed Arm's same-day NVIDIA platform blog, which was checked directly in the approved Chrome session. The blog supplies product context without a royalty figure and does not establish the cause of the 8.7% decline. No company event for ARM was recorded between September 24 and 28. 2 social posts from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.
The call: 🟡 Wait for a held pullback. The $276–$295 zone was reached on September 28, but the 8.7% drop and pending event check do not establish support; reassess after stabilization.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries. They update with each close; the dated sections above keep the numbers of their own date.
| Metric | ARM |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 227.8 |
| RSI (14) | 34.5 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | -20.6 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | -15 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | 1.9 |
| SMA20 ($) | 286.72 |
| SMA50 ($) | 267.88 |
| SMA200 ($) | 223.44 |
| 1D (%) | -6.94 |
| 7D (%) | -14.45 |
| 30D (%) | -6.63 |
| 3M (%) | -14.74 |
| 1Y (%) | 33.07 |
| 2Y (%) | 49.38 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | 17.54 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -49.68 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-29. Revenue was $1.29B. Source: SEC key financials. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | Filing date |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | $824.0M | 2025-02-05 |
| 2024-06-30 | $939.0M | 2025-07-30 |
| 2024-09-30 | $844.0M | 2025-11-05 |
| 2024-12-31 | $983.0M | 2026-02-04 |
| 2025-06-30 | $1.05B | 2026-07-29 |
| 2025-09-30 | $1.14B | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-12-31 | $1.24B | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-06-30 | $1.29B | 2026-07-29 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | ARM $353.29, RSI 77.5, strong-up; overbought. 3M +184%. Flagged SMA20 pullback ($340-350) as cleanest entry. |
| 2026-06-16 | ARM $396.34, RSI 63.9; RSI cooling but +15.4% above SMA20. Entry window approaching but not yet arrived. 3M +211.32%. |
| 2026-06-26 | ARM $334.27, RSI 48.4, strong-up (longer frame); -17.11% 7D, +10.43% 30D, +131.92% 3M. Largest single-week drawdown of the run. Price pulled back through SMA20 to $334 — exactly the $340-350 entry window flagged at June 16. RSI neutral at 48.4. Golden cross intact, regime "pullback," thesis flag "intact-but-priced." This is the best entry setup of the past 3 refreshes. Stop at SMA50 ($285). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | ARM $323.39, RSI 47.9, strong-up; -2.33% 7D, -5.51% 30D, +105.22% 3M. Pullback continued at a calmer pace — no repeat of the prior -17% single-week flush. Golden cross, regime "pullback," and thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. -28.56% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | ARM $267.19, RSI 38.4, weak-down; -17.38% 7D, -39.2% 30D (deepest month in this file's history), +52.59% 3M (window effect). -40.98% from 52wk high, new deepest drawdown. Golden cross and thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | ARM $260.01, RSI 38, weak-down; -2.69% 7D (stabilizing), -27.59% 30D (improved), +10.73% 3M (decaying further as April move rolls out). -37.48% from 52wk high (narrowed). Golden cross and thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | ARM $244.74, RSI 35.9, weak-down; -8.11% 1D, -15.53% 7D, -28.77% 30D, +21.34% 3M (base-effect churn). -45.94% from 52wk high, new deepest drawdown. Stabilization broke — fresh single-day drop. Golden cross and thesis flag "intact-but-priced" unchanged. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | ARM $239.69, RSI 37.5, weak-down; 7D -7.82%; 30D -28.97%; 3M +13.50%; -47.05% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | ARM $282.57, RSI 50.3, weak-down; 7D +17.89%; 30D -5.89%; 3M +32.49%; -39.35% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | ARM $279.44, RSI 50.9, weak-down; 7D -1.11%; 30D +0.88%; 3M +33.60%; -38.45% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | ARM $243.32, RSI 39.2, weak-down; 7D -12.89%; 30D -14.14%; 3M -20.62%; -46.25% from 52wk high. 1Y +82.56%, vs SMA200 +23.40%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | ARM $239.05, RSI 40, weak-down; 7D -1.78%; 30D +6.30%; 3M -32.34%; -47.19% from 52wk high. 1Y +67.70%, vs SMA200 +19.9%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | ARM $252.09, RSI 48, weak-down; 7D +5.45%; 30D -8.19%; 3M -26.49%; -44.31% from 52wk high. 1Y +86.07%, vs SMA200 +24.90%. News pulled 2026-09-04; no ARM-specific catalyst found for this week's move. The broader semiconductor cohort rallied hard on 2026-09-04 (sector data), which is consistent with the up-week, but no ARM-specific receipt confirms causation. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | ARM $264.79, RSI 53.4, weak-down; 7D +5.04%; 30D -2.60%; 3M -30.47%; -41.51% from 52wk high. 1Y +71.16%, vs SMA200 +29.60%. News pulled 2026-09-11: generic AI-CPU-demand commentary, no single dated catalyst — cause unknown. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-18 | ARM $275.61, RSI 57.7, strong-up (upgraded from weak-down); 7D +4.09%; 30D +10.54%; 3M -37.28%; -39.12% from 52wk high. 1Y +88.08%, vs SMA200 +33.0% — a deep pullback inside an intact long trend, not a breakdown. The $270 line the desk has watched since August is reclaimed. News pulled 2026-09-18: quote, derivative-product and earnings-history pages, nothing dated on the two-day move; the desk's 2026-09-17 record of Thursday's +8.57% names no company event. Stock-events checked: none in this window. No newly filed period on disk this cycle. |
| 2026-09-23 | ARM $332.56, RSI 71.1, +26.7% vs SMA20, 30D +39.27%. +36.31% on the week; 1Y +135.87%, +58.2% vs the 200-day. Cause on the record: the 2026-09-21 CPU rally that CNBC tied to Meta's Muse agent app (+17.16% that day on 3.2x volume, per the desk's 2026-09-21 brief). Call reset to a first-pullback entry $276–$295. News pulled 2026-09-22 (quote pages and the July 29 results). Stock-events checked: none in the window; Q2 FYE27 report scheduled 11-04. Filed-period check: newest period on disk is FY2026 (10-K filed 2026-05-26); the July 29 quarter came by 6-K and no table here cites it. |
| 2026-09-28 | ARM $283.33, RSI 52, +4.8% vs SMA20, 30D +18.5%. The long trend remains intact; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-29); revenue was $1.29B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $1.05B, that is +22.4% year over year. The September 28 hosted pull returned five quote or forecast pages and missed Arm's same-day NVIDIA platform blog, which was checked directly in the approved Chrome session. The blog supplies product context without a royalty figure and does not establish the cause of the 8.7% decline. No company event for ARM was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-22) — Arm Q1 FYE27 results and SEC 6-K.
- CNBC, Intel surges 12% as CPU stocks rally (2026-09-21) and 2026-09-21-market-brief — the CPU rally and Arm's September 21 session.
- Scheduled-event check: 2026-11-04-arm-earnings (scheduled); no ARM row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23.
- Macro: CNBC, Fed delivers its first hike in three years (2026-09-16); Bloomberg, US bond-market slide deepens (2026-09-23); Bloomberg, biggest long-bond ETF hits record low (2026-09-23); CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October (2026-09-23).
- market-pulse — sector-fund and S&P 500 30-day returns, September 23, 2026.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, ARM row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-29 (SEC XBRL direct quarter).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-28; fresh successful receipt; event-quality review summarized above.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no ARM row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 source-page check: Arm's September 28 issuer blog describes its CPU and DPU role in NVIDIA's Open Agent Safety Platform. It supplies product-positioning evidence for the agent infrastructure thesis, but gives no new royalty, shipment or revenue figure and does not explain the 8.7% share-price decline. The Chrome CDP source-page capture is under 2026-09-28-raw.
2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 2 September 24–28 document(s) tagging ARM.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-arm; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.