Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
BRBR Price Structure
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BellRing Brands, Inc. is cratering: 79.0% below its 52-week high, down 27.6% since August 28 and down 37.5% since June 29, and 50.4% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, BRBR $7.74 was -16.5% versus its 20-day average and -27.6% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-04); revenue was $570.4M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $547.5M, that is +4.2% year over year. Coca-Cola's Fairlife is taking share, whey costs have compressed margins, and the balance sheet carries about $1.2B of debt. The standing call is 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target; the old $13–$15 zone and $10.50 stop are retired. Revisit only after a base and a quarter that confirms consumption · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target; the old $13–$15 zone and $10.50 stop are retired. Revisit only after a base and a quarter that confirms consumption · low conviction. |
| What it is | The maker of Premier Protein, the leading ready-to-drink protein shake brand in the U.S., sold heavily through club stores. |
| Why now | Prior case (2026-09-23): The June-quarter report missed (EPS $0.30 against $0.37 expected, per the August 4 earnings record) and growth has slowed to about 4% year over year. |
| Proof | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04: revenue $570.4M. Prior case: The filed June-quarter 10-Q: revenue $570.4M against $547.5M a year earlier, net income $34.2M. |
| Objection | Coca-Cola's Fairlife is taking share, whey costs have compressed margins, and the balance sheet carries about $1.2B of debt. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -16.5% versus the 20-day, -50.4% versus the 200-day, RSI 24.6. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | Price builds a base for several weeks and closes above $11.10 (the volume-weighted average from the low) | Only then is there a structure to judge; still no position until a quarter confirms consumption. |
| 🔴 Out | Any day the stock is in its current collapse regime | Stand aside; an oversold RSI in a collapse is not a buy signal. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | The fiscal fourth-quarter report shows consumption declining or covenant pressure | The protein-demand case is no longer the company's case. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
BellRing Brands, Inc. is cratering: 79.0% below its 52-week high, down 27.6% since August 28 and down 37.5% since June 29, and 50.4% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: BRBR $7.74, RSI 24.6, strong-down, -16.5% vs SMA20, -50.4% vs SMA200, 7D -13.5%, 30D -27.6%, 1Y -78.9%, -79.0% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. The maker of Premier Protein, the leading ready-to-drink protein shake brand in the U.S., sold heavily through club stores.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The June-quarter report missed (EPS $0.30 against $0.37 expected, per the August 4 earnings record) and growth has slowed to about 4% year over year.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The filed June-quarter 10-Q: revenue $570.4M against $547.5M a year earlier, net income $34.2M.
The countercase. Coca-Cola's Fairlife is taking share, whey costs have compressed margins, and the balance sheet carries about $1.2B of debt.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-04); revenue was $570.4M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $547.5M, that is +4.2% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-11. No company event for BRBR was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target; the old $13–$15 zone and $10.50 stop are retired. Revisit only after a base and a quarter that confirms consumption · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries. They update with each close; the dated sections above keep the numbers of their own date.
| Metric | BRBR |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 9.43 |
| RSI (14) | 62 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | 15.1 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | -0.1 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | -33 |
| SMA20 ($) | 8.2 |
| SMA50 ($) | 9.44 |
| SMA200 ($) | 14.07 |
| 1D (%) | 4.89 |
| 7D (%) | 10.29 |
| 30D (%) | 3.74 |
| 3M (%) | -22.19 |
| 1Y (%) | -71.6 |
| 2Y (%) | -85.59 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | -87.14 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -72.96 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Company Overview
One-Liner
America's #1 ready-to-drink protein shake company (Premier Protein), riding the GLP-1/protein-maxxing cultural wave.
Business Model
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What they sell | RTD protein shakes, protein powders, nutrition bars |
| Who pays | Mass-market consumers via club stores (Costco), FDM, e-commerce |
| Revenue model | CPG product sales — high velocity, repeat purchase |
| How sticky | Brand loyalty + taste habit + medical recommendation (GLP-1 patients) |
Key Segments
| Segment | Revenue % | Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Premier Protein | ~85% | Core growth driver | #1 RTD protein shake, 22% market share |
| Dymatize | ~12% | Stable | Performance protein powder, gym channel |
| PowerBar | ~3% | Legacy | Declining, not a focus |
Geographic Mix
| Region | Revenue % | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US | ~95% | Dominant domestic focus |
| International | ~5% | Early expansion |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Market share | 22% RTD protein shakes (#1) |
| Market size (TAM) | $29.8B → $63.2B by 2033 (10.3% CAGR) |
| Growth rate | RTD +7.4% YoY, bars +6.8%, powder +7.2% |
| Key competitors | Fairlife (Coca-Cola), Orgain, OWYN, Quest (Simply Good Foods), Muscle Milk (PepsiCo) |
| Position | Leader in RTD, challenger in powder |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Network effects | 🔴 | No network effects in CPG |
| Switching costs | 🟡 | Taste/habit loyalty but low switching friction |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | Scale in RTD manufacturing, whey procurement contracts |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | Premier Protein brand #1, Costco shelf placement |
| Efficient scale | 🟡 | Category growing fast enough for new entrants |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Narrow Moat Trend: Stable (but competitive intensity increasing — Fairlife/Coca-Cola entering)
Summary:
Premier Protein owns the RTD convenience protein category with #1 share and dominant Costco placement. But Coca-Cola's Fairlife is the real threat — backed by infinite distribution muscle. BellRing's moat is brand and scale, not technology. In CPG, that's enough to survive but not enough to prevent share erosion.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role | Name | Since | Background | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Darcy H. Davenport | 2019 | Post Holdings Active Nutrition → Premier Protein president. Career: Nestle, Dreyer's, Timbuk2 | Leadership transition announced Feb 2026 |
| CGO | Doug Cornille | — | Clif Bar, Nestlé, Clorox | Leads all sales and marketing |
| CFO | — | — | 20+ years public company finance, telecom + CPG | Named in class action |
| CLO | Craig Leupold | — | Altice USA SVP Law | 20+ years corporate legal |
Founder Involvement
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Founder-led? | No — spun off from Post Holdings 2022 |
| Founder ownership | N/A |
| Skin in the game | Management team has 6.4 years avg tenure; CEO transitioning |
Capital Allocation
| Metric | Track Record |
|---|---|
| M&A discipline | Good — focused on core brands, no empire-building |
| Buyback timing | Good — $97M/quarter at depressed prices shows conviction |
| R&D investment | Low — CPG, innovation is flavors/formats not R&D |
| Debt management | Aggressive — negative equity, $1.18B net debt from Post spin-off structure |
Red Flags
- Securities class action — alleged artificial growth via channel stuffing
- CEO transition announced February 2026
- Negative equity (-$510M) — leveraged structure from Post spin-off
- No excessive exec compensation flagged
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric | Q1 FY2026 | FY2025 | FY2024 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (quarterly) | $537M | $648M (Q4) | $556M (Q4) | 📈 Growing but decelerating |
| Revenue Growth YoY | +0.8% | +16.8%* | — | 📉 Massive deceleration |
| Gross Margin | 29.9% | 28.9% (Q4) | 36.9% (Q4 FY24) | 📉 Whey cost pressure |
| Operating Margin | 14.6% | 15.8% (Q4) | 20.2% (Q4 FY24) | 📉 Compression |
| FCF Margin | -1.4% | — | — | 📉 Negative in latest Q |
| Net Debt | $1.18B (gross long-term debt; ~$1.15B net of the $33M cash balance) | — | — | ➡️ Stable but high |
*FY2025 full year: $2.32B revenue, up from $1.67B in FY2023
Refresh check (2026-08-22): BRBR reported Q2 FY2026 on 2026-08-04 — a miss (EPS $0.30 actual vs $0.37 consensus, -18.5% surprise), stock -2.6% across the print (per the August 4 earnings record). No filed quarter covering that print is on disk yet — Q1 FY2026 (period ending 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-03) remains the newest quarter in the data provider's quarterly series; the tables above are one quarter stale against the reported (not yet filed) print.
Refresh check (2026-09-11): the quarter IS now on file with the SEC, even though the data provider's quarterly series still shows Q1 FY2026 as newest. The filed 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04, accession 0001772016-26-000022) reports quarterly revenue $570.4M, net income $34.2M, EPS diluted $0.29, operating income $65.4M, shares outstanding 116.4M, cash $50.4M. Revenue growth: $570.4M vs $547.5M in the year-ago quarter (end 2025-06-30) is roughly +4.2% YoY — decelerating from the FY2025 full-year growth rate, consistent with the destocking/consumption question this file has been tracking. The tables above (Key Metrics / Quality Checks) still show Q1 FY2026 as the newest cited row; this footnote folds the newer figure rather than restating the whole table shape.
Quality Checks
| Check | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FCF positive? | 🔴 | Negative in Q1 FY2026 (-$7.3M) — seasonal; historically positive |
| Profitable? | 🟢 | Net income $43.7M in latest Q |
| Debt manageable? | 🟡 | $1.18B net debt, negative equity, but strong EBITDA covers interest |
| Cash runway | ∞ | Profitable business, just leveraged |
Revenue Quality
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Recurring % | High — repeat purchase CPG (protein shakes consumed daily) |
| Customer concentration | High — Costco/club stores dominate |
| Contract length | Short — CPG shelf agreements, renegotiated annually |
| Volume drivers | GLP-1 adoption, protein-maxxing trend, consumer health awareness |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Acceleration | -35.5% | 🔴 Severe deceleration |
| YoY Growth | +0.8% | 🟡 Stalled |
| Earnings Beat Rate | 50% | 🟡 Neutral |
| Insider Trading | -$30.3M net (6 buys / 26 sells) | 🟡 Mixed — high sell count but management buying back shares aggressively |
| Composite | -0.3 (Neutral) | 🟡 |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric | Current | Context |
|---|---|---|
| P/S | ~0.42x (recomputed 2026-09-23 at $8.44 × 116.4M filed shares = ~$0.98B market cap over the same $2.35B TTM revenue basis — Q3 FY2026 $570.4M + Q2 FY2026 $598.7M + Q1 FY2026 $537.3M + Q4 FY2025 $648.2M, all filed quarterly figures; was ~0.44x at the 2026-09-18 $8.98 price) | Historically cheap for a growth CPG name |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.4x | Stale — computed at a higher price; no on-disk EBITDA authority to recompute (noted 2026-08-03, re-checked 2026-09-23) |
| P/E | ~5.7x trailing (recomputed 2026-09-23: TTM net income $171.4M / 116.4M shares ≈ $1.47 EPS at the current $8.44 price — Q3 FY2026 $34.2M + Q2 FY2026 $33.9M + Q1 FY2026 $43.7M + Q4 FY2025 $59.6M (derived: FY2025 full-year $216.2M less the first three FY2025 quarters); was ~6.1x at the 2026-09-18 $8.98 price) | The multiple compressed further with the price |
| Forward P/E | 26.6x | Stale — same creation-price basis; no consensus estimate on disk to recompute (noted 2026-08-03, re-checked 2026-09-23) |
Fair Value Estimate
| Method | Fair Value (as recorded at the April–August 2026 writing) |
|---|---|
| Analyst consensus (16) | $46.88 |
| Deutsche Bank (revised down) | $31.00 |
| Acquirer's Multiple estimate | ~$30 |
| If margins normalize to 35% GM | ~$25-30 |
My Fair Value: $25-31 (based on normalized margins + secular demand), contingent on Q2 confirming consumption isn't broken.
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
GLP-1 creates permanent protein demand floor
- Evidence: 12% of US adults on GLP-1, 40% of weight lost = muscle, doctors prescribe protein
- Implication: Unlike cyclical food trends, this is medically mandated demand that grows with drug adoption
Destocking is one-time, not structural
- Evidence: Underlying consumption still growing 6% YoY per management; retailer inventory correction is finite
- Implication: Once shelves normalize, sales re-accelerate to match actual demand
Valuation at maximum pessimism
- Evidence (as stated at the 2026-08-03 writing): P/S 1.07x vs historical 3-5x; stock down 86% from high; analyst targets at $31-47
- Implication: Risk/reward dramatically skewed if thesis is correct — even partial recovery = 200%+ upside
Aggressive buybacks signal management conviction
- Evidence: $97M/quarter in repurchases at current levels
- Implication: Insiders putting real capital to work; they see the same secular demand data we do
Oral GLP-1 (2026) massively expands patient pool
- Evidence: Oral semaglutide removes injection barrier; market expects 2-3x patient growth
- Implication: Every new GLP-1 patient = another recurring protein buyer
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| Q2 confirms consumption intact + destocking ending | $25 (183% up) in 3-6 months |
| New CEO catalyst + margin recovery + oral GLP-1 launch | $35-45 (297-410% up) in 12 months |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
Channel stuffing was real, demand is overstated
- How it plays out: Consumption data was inflated; actual end-consumer demand is flat or declining
- Probability: Medium — class action suggests real concerns, not just ambulance-chasing
Fairlife/Coca-Cola takes share
- How it plays out: Coca-Cola's distribution muscle + $500M marketing budget erodes Premier Protein's #1 position
- Probability: Medium-High — Fairlife already growing faster than category
Whey protein costs stay elevated
- How it plays out: Gross margins don't recover from 30% back to 35%+; earnings disappoint
- Probability: Medium — whey is cyclical, but war/oil backdrop keeps input costs high
Debt load becomes problematic
- How it plays out: $1.18B net debt with negative equity; if earnings deteriorate further, leverage becomes toxic
- Probability: Low — EBITDA still covers interest, but worth monitoring
CEO transition goes badly
- How it plays out: Darcy Davenport leaves, new CEO changes strategy or stumbles; institutional investors sell on uncertainty
- Probability: Medium — transitions always carry risk
Thesis Killers
- Q2 FY2026 shows consumption declining (not just destocking)
- Fairlife overtakes Premier Protein as #1 RTD in tracked channels
- Debt covenant breach or credit downgrade
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| Consumption actually broken + share loss to Fairlife | $5-7 (-43-21% from current) |
| Full class action settlement + margin erosion | $6-8 (-32-9% from current) |
Market-Moving News
Historical
| Date | Event | Impact | Market Reaction | Lesson |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05 | CFO reveals retailers cutting weeks of supply | -19% | Justified — early warning | Channel inventory matters in CPG |
| 2025-08 | Destocking hits, full inventory correction | -33% in one day | Overreaction? TBD | $2.9B wiped — market priced in worst case |
| 2026-02 | Q1 FY2026 + CEO transition announced | Continued decline | Neutral-negative | New uncertainty layer |
| 2026-03 | Class action lawsuits filed (multiple firms) | Legal overhang | Ambulance-chasing or real? | Securities litigation is common after big drops |
Recent News
| Date | Headline | Source | Impact | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | Q2 FY2026 earnings timing announced | GlobeNewswire | 🟡 | Upcoming catalyst — the truth serum |
| 2026-03-24 | Multiple class action lawsuits filed | Multiple | 🔴 | Legal overhang, but typical post-crash ambulance chasing |
| 2026-02-03 | Q1 results + narrowed FY2026 guidance ($2.41-2.46B) | Company | 🟡 | Revenue growth stalled but not collapsing |
| 2026-02-03 | Leadership transition plan announced | Company | 🟡 | CEO Davenport transitioning — uncertainty |
News Patterns
BRBR moves on channel inventory data and competitive dynamics, not macro. The market is hyper-focused on whether consumption is real or channel-stuffed. Q2 earnings will resolve this tension one way or the other.
Related Markets & ETFs
| Symbol | Name | Relationship | 30D | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | Consumer Staples SPDR | Sector ETF | — | BRBR straddles staples/discretionary |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary SPDR | Sector ETF | — | Broader consumer weakness |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | Small-cap index | — | BRBR now small-cap territory |
Sector Context
The entire consumer/cultural-thesis basket is getting destroyed — NKE, HIMS, LULU all in strong-down with death crosses. This is NOT BRBR-specific. Oil at $128+, war uncertainty, and consumer sentiment at lows are crushing discretionary spending. But protein shakes are closer to staples than discretionary — people drink them daily. SBUX is the only cultural-thesis name working (strong-up, golden cross), partly because it's pure staples.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location | File | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Perspective | The Protein Economy perspective | Pure-play beneficiary of GLP-1 protein demand cascade |
| Watchlists | The cultural-thesis watchlist | Tracked alongside HIMS, NKE, LULU, SBUX, CROX, DPZ |
| Active perspectives registry | — | Part of Protein Economy perspective (priority: high) |
| Community | An external analyst's GLP-1/protein-economy write-up | External analyst thesis |
Related Tickers to Monitor
| Ticker | Why Related | Suggested Placement | Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMPL (Simply Good Foods) | Quest protein bars competitor | cultural-thesis | 🟡 | Direct comp for investor comparison |
| KO (Coca-Cola/Fairlife) | Biggest competitive threat | Already tracked | 🟢 | Monitor Fairlife share gains |
| BANB.SW (Bachem) | GLP-1 peptide manufacturer (different chain) | New watchlist? | 🟡 | Upstream of the drug, not downstream demand |
| LLY | GLP-1 drug maker — upstream catalyst | Already tracked | 🟢 | Oral GLP-1 timeline drives BRBR demand |
| NVO | GLP-1 drug maker — upstream catalyst | Already tracked | 🟢 | Semaglutide adoption rate |
| DAR (Darling Ingredients) | Creatine gummies → peptide supply chain | Research pending | 🟡 | Community-sourced cultural arbitrage signal |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date | Event | Impact | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported 2026-08-04 | Q3 FY2026 earnings (June quarter) | 🔴 | Missed: EPS $0.30 against $0.37 expected; revenue +4.2% YoY |
| 2026 H2 | Oral GLP-1 launches | 🟢 | Patient pool expansion = more protein buyers |
| 2026 | New CEO announcement | 🟡 | Who takes over from Davenport? |
| 2026-2027 | Whey price cycle | 🟡 | If whey deflates, gross margins recover immediately |
Key Dates
| Event | Frequency | Next Date |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Quarterly | Fiscal Q4 FY2026 report date not on file |
| Class action deadline | One-time | Lead plaintiff deadline was Mar 23, 2026 |
Sources
| Type | Link | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Investor Relations | https://bellring.com | Company website |
| Protein Economy Perspective | Protein Economy perspective note | Our thesis write-up |
| Community Analysis | Community conviction doc on GLP-1 cultural shifts | External researcher's thesis |
| Class Action | Hagens Berman filing | Securities fraud allegations |
| Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns) | settled summary | Settled summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close |
| Filed fundamentals (Q3 FY2026 10-Q) | SEC key financials | Revenue/net income/EPS folded into Valuation; still the newest filed period on disk at 2026-09-23 |
| News receipt | news receipt | Last fetched 2026-09-11; nothing on the 2026-09-23 move |
| Scheduled-event check | research/stock-events/ |
No BRBR row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23; no fiscal-Q4 date on file |
| Macro | Bloomberg, US bond-market slide deepens (2026-09-23); CNBC, Fed delivers its first hike in three years (2026-09-16) | Rate backdrop |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-04. Revenue was $570.4M; GAAP net income was $34.2M; diluted EPS was 0.29. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-31 | $588.0M | — | $95.1M | $58.7M | 2025-05-06 |
| 2025-06-30 | $547.5M | — | $44.8M | $21.0M | 2025-08-05 |
| 2025-12-31 | $537.3M | — | $78.5M | $43.7M | 2026-02-03 |
| 2026-03-31 | $598.7M | +1.8% | $66.0M | $33.9M | 2026-05-05 |
| 2026-06-30 | $570.4M | +4.2% | $65.4M | $34.2M | 2026-08-04 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Created deep dive — $15.01, RSI 36.3, class action + GLP-1 demand thesis |
| 2026-05-29 | BRBR $8.36, RSI 23.9, strong-down; -53.03% in 30D vs prior $15.01 — major collapse since April write-up. FLAG: prior profile was bullish at $13-15 entry zone; stock now -44% below that zone. Human review required before any new positioning. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | BRBR $8.83, RSI 38.6, weak-down; +5.6% since May 29 ($8.36), +7.65% 7D bounce, -4.64% 30D, -52.3% 3M, -86% from 52wkHi. RSI has partially recovered from extreme oversold (23.9→38.6) but remains weak. +1.0% above SMA20 ($8.74) is faint. Human review flag maintained. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | BRBR $12.48, RSI 57.4, weak-up; +41.3% since June 16 ($8.83), +40.07% 30D, -17.41% 3M, -78.88% from 52wkHi. Back above SMA20/SMA50, death cross still intact. Engine tags thesis flag: broken despite the bounce — flagged as tape-vs-thesis divergence. Human review flag maintained. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | BRBR $12.12, RSI 53.1, weak-up; -2.9% since 07/11, +28.12% 30D (decelerating), -26.46% 3M, -79.49% from 52wkHi. Slipped -0.9% below SMA20; death cross still intact. thesis flag: broken unchanged. Human review flag maintained. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | BRBR $12.95, RSI 59.5, weak-up; +6.8% since 07/17, +8.73% 30D (decelerating further), -20.06% 3M, -77.24% from 52wkHi. Reclaimed SMA20 (+2.1%); death cross still intact. thesis flag: broken unchanged. Human review flag maintained. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | BRBR $13.66, RSI 64.1, weak-up; +5.5% since 07/25, +10.34% 30D, -22.12% 3M, -75.9% from 52wkHi (improved). Now +6.7% above SMA20; death cross still intact. thesis flag: broken unchanged. Human review flag maintained. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | BRBR $12.39, RSI 48.8, weak-up; 7D -4.32%; 30D -7.19%; 3M -27.97%; -77.39% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | BRBR $11.56, RSI 41.7, weak-up; 7D -6.70%; 30D -12.29%; 3M +12.12%; -70.69% from 52wk high. News not pulled for this move. |
| 2026-08-14 | BRBR $10.75, RSI 36, strong-down; 7D -7.01%; 30D -11.08%; 3M +10.94%; -74.45% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | BRBR $10.19, RSI 35.3, strong-down; 7D -5.12%; 30D -20.27%; 3M +14.37%; -76.31% from 52wk high. 1Y -74.38%, vs SMA200 -43.70%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | BRBR $10.69, RSI 44.0, strong-down; 7D +5.00%; 30D -19.56%; 3M +27.87%; -75.15% from 52wk high. 1Y -73.84%, vs SMA200 -39.40%. A bounce, not a reversal — thesis flag remains broken. News not pulled for this move (cache last fetched 2026-07-07). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | BRBR $10.39, RSI 42.5, strong-down; 7D -2.90%; 30D -17.61%; 3M +18.47%; -75.85% from 52wk high. 1Y -75.66%, vs SMA200 -39.70%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-07-07, nearly two months stale). |
| 2026-09-11 | BRBR $9.14, RSI 32, strong-down; 7D -12.03%; 30D -15.76%; 3M +3.75%; -76.43% from 52wk high. 1Y -75.50%, vs SMA200 -45.70% — long trend remains under test. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-07-07, over two months stale); the -12% week has no news receipt, cause unknown. Filed-quarter fold: EDGAR's Q3 FY2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04) is now on disk — revenue $570.4M, net income $34.2M, EPS $0.29 — recomputed into the Valuation multiples below (P/S ~0.45x, P/E ~6.2x). |
| 2026-09-18 | BRBR $8.98, RSI 31.1, strong-down; 7D -1.75%; 30D -16.31%; 3M -5.07%; -75.91% from 52wk high. 1Y -75.52% with alpha1y -90.53 and price -44.9% below the 200-day — the widest long-average gap in this half of the library, thesis flag still broken. Multiples restated at the new price on the same filed basis (P/S ~0.44x, P/E ~6.1x). Filed-period check: Q3 FY2026 (period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-04) remains the newest on disk and is already folded. News not pulled for this move (receipt last written 2026-09-11). Stock-events checked: none in this window. |
| 2026-09-23 | BRBR $8.44, RSI 26.4, -12.9% vs SMA20, 30D -22.21%. Another -6.12% on 2026-09-23; 1Y -76.95% with 1Y vs S&P 500 -92.72 pts and -47.1% vs the 200-day — broken, collapse regime. Old $13–$15 entry zone and position-sizing section retired; call is stand aside. Multiples restated at the new price (P/S ~0.42x, P/E ~5.7x). News not pulled for this move (receipt last written 2026-09-11). Stock-events checked: none in the window. Filed-period check: June-quarter 10-Q (filed 2026-08-04) remains newest and is folded. |
| 2026-09-28 | BRBR $7.74, RSI 24.6, -16.5% vs SMA20, 30D -27.6%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-04); revenue was $570.4M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $547.5M, that is +4.2% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-11. No company event for BRBR was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| GLP-1 contributes ~25% of BRBR growth (management confirmed) | Not speculative — company tracks and reports this |
| $97M/quarter buybacks at $15 | Management has more conviction than the market |
| Negative equity is structural (Post spin-off), not distress | Don't confuse leverage structure with business health |
| Class action is typical ambulance-chasing post 30%+ drop | Every big drop gets lawsuits; doesn't mean fraud is proven |
| Premier Protein is #1 in RTD but Fairlife is gaining fast | Competitive moat is real but under pressure |
Open Questions
- Q2 FY2026: Is end-consumer consumption actually growing, or was it all channel stuffing?
- Who replaces Darcy Davenport as CEO?
- How much market share is Fairlife (Coca-Cola) actually taking?
- When do whey protein costs inflect back down?
- Will oral GLP-1 materially expand the protein demand TAM?
- [NEW 2026-05-29, maintained 2026-06-16] What happened in Q2 FY2026 earnings? Stock is at $8.83 — the thesis-confirming print was supposed to be the catalyst. Was the thesis wrong?
- [NEW 2026-06-16] What drove the +7.65% 7D bounce? News catalyst or short covering? Verify before interpreting as trend change.
Perspective Connection
This deep dive feeds directly into the Protein Economy perspective. BRBR is the pure-play picks-and-shovels thesis — it doesn't make the GLP-1 drug, it makes what every drug user NEEDS. The thesis lives or dies on whether the demand signal is secular (cultural arbitrage says yes) or whether competitive intensity from Fairlife makes BRBR a worse picks-and-shovels play than it appears.
Sources
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, BRBR row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-04 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-11; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no BRBR row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging BRBR.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-brbr; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for BRBR: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
BRBR); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.Additional source receipts moved from the narrative: cultural-thesis; 2026-04-11-protein-economy.