Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
IBM Price Structure
Loading timeframes…
International Business Machines Corporation is cratering: 33.6% below its 52-week high, down 6.3% since August 28 and down 20.6% since June 29, and 14.2% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, IBM $220.67 was -5.8% versus its 20-day average and -6.3% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $17.16B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $16.98B, that is +1.1% year over year. The growth guide was cut to 4–5% and the Confluent purchase reduced cash; another demand disappointment would strain the recovery case. The standing call is 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target until the 200-day is reclaimed · low conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target until the 200-day is reclaimed · low conviction. |
| What it is | An enterprise software, consulting and infrastructure company: hybrid cloud (Red Hat), automation, data (Confluent), mainframes and a quantum-computing program. |
| Why now | The September 24 Logiq Consulting acquisition adds UK public-sector cybersecurity capability, but no purchase price or expected revenue was disclosed. |
| Proof | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-23: revenue $17.16B. Prior case: The Q2 10-Q: revenue $17.16B against $16.98B a year earlier, net income $2.17B and diluted EPS $2.27; cash fell $6.4B to $7.2B after the $11.6B Confluent purchase, per StockTitan's summary. |
| Objection to the bear case | TipRanks' summary cites a plan to invest more than $10B in quantum over five years and a letter of intent for a quantum foundry backed by $1B of Commerce Department incentives. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -5.8% versus the 20-day, -14.2% versus the 200-day, RSI 37.6. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | If | Then |
|---|---|---|
| 🟡 Wait | A close above $258.50, the 200-day area, after the October 21 report | The long trend starts to repair; reassess then. |
| 🔴 Out | Price stays below the 200-day | Stand aside. |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | The October 21 report cuts the 4%–5% growth guide again | The July reset was not the bottom. |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
International Business Machines Corporation is cratering: 33.6% below its 52-week high, down 6.3% since August 28 and down 20.6% since June 29, and 14.2% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: IBM $220.67, RSI 37.6, strong-down, -5.8% vs SMA20, -14.2% vs SMA200, 7D -4.8%, 30D -6.3%, 1Y -21.1%, -33.6% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. An enterprise software, consulting and infrastructure company: hybrid cloud (Red Hat), automation, data (Confluent), mainframes and a quantum-computing program.
Prior case (2026-09-23). On the Q2 call (July 22) management cut full-year growth guidance from "5%+" to 4%–5% after clients shifted spending, per MarketBeat's call summary.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The Q2 10-Q: revenue $17.16B against $16.98B a year earlier, net income $2.17B and diluted EPS $2.27; cash fell $6.4B to $7.2B after the $11.6B Confluent purchase, per StockTitan's summary.
The countercase. The growth guide was cut to 4–5% and the Confluent purchase reduced cash; another demand disappointment would strain the recovery case.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $17.16B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $16.98B, that is +1.1% year over year.
Verified source event. IBM announced September 24 its acquisition of UK cybersecurity consultancy Logiq Consulting, adding security assurance and sovereign-technology expertise for regulated and public-sector clients. Terms were not disclosed; this is a capability addition rather than quantified growth evidence or a proven cause of the September 28 share move.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-23. No company event for IBM was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Stand aside. No entry, stop or target until the 200-day is reclaimed · low conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live)
Live values from the desk's settled-close summaries. They update with each close; the dated sections above keep the numbers of their own date.
| Metric | IBM |
|---|---|
| As of (close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 232.14 |
| RSI (14) | 53.8 |
| vs SMA20 (%) | 2.6 |
| vs SMA50 (%) | 0 |
| vs SMA200 (%) | -7.8 |
| SMA20 ($) | 226.33 |
| SMA50 ($) | 232.03 |
| SMA200 ($) | 251.69 |
| 1D (%) | -0.85 |
| 7D (%) | 2.21 |
| 30D (%) | -2.25 |
| 3M (%) | 9.16 |
| 1Y (%) | -15.88 |
| 2Y (%) | -0.65 |
| 1Y vs S&P 500 (pts) | -31.41 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -30.18 |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-23. Revenue was $17.16B; GAAP net income was $2.17B; diluted EPS was 2.27. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $15.77B | — | $2.22B | $1.83B | 2024-07-30 |
| 2024-09-30 | $14.97B | — | −$802.0M | −$330.0M | 2024-10-30 |
| 2025-03-31 | $14.54B | — | $1.16B | $1.05B | 2025-04-24 |
| 2025-06-30 | $16.98B | +7.7% | $2.60B | $2.19B | 2025-07-24 |
| 2026-03-31 | $15.92B | +9.5% | $1.39B | $1.22B | 2026-04-23 |
| 2026-06-30 | $17.16B | +1.1% | $2.48B | $2.17B | 2026-07-23 |
Research Log
| Date | Note |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Initial deep dive. IBM $233.24, RSI 36.9, strong-down, -28.2% from 52wk high. Approaching oversold; thesis intact but trend against. |
| 2026-05-29 | IBM $297.8, RSI 80.8, up; +29.88% 30D. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | IBM $270.81, RSI 52.3, neutral; -4.59% 7D, +21.58% 30D. Mean-reversion from May 29 overbought extreme. Price now back at SMA20. Consolidation the prior note called for is underway. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | IBM $287.56, RSI 55.4, up; +6.2% since 06-16. The 06-16 consolidation call resolved upward — reclaimed SMA20, RSI held above 40 throughout, 3M re-accelerated to +21.8%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | IBM $212.67, RSI 31.3, strong-down; -26.0% since 07/11, the worst week in this file's history. -14.62% 30D, -15.56% 3M, -36.03% from 52wk high. The 07/11 upward resolution has reversed sharply — no new fundamentals re-researched this cycle, but the severity warrants a closer look at the driver. |
| 2026-07-25 | IBM $214.19, RSI 34.9, strong-down; +0.71% since 07/17, the free-fall has stopped. -18.55% 30D (base-effect deepening), -6.99% 3M (improved), -37.84% from 52wk high (flat). Stabilizing at the lower level, not yet a confirmed reversal. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | IBM $227.55, RSI 42.6, strong-down (recovering); +6.2% since 07/25, +8.1% 7D. -18.15% 30D (roughly flat), +0.94% 3M (turned positive), -31.56% from 52wk high (improved). Recovery continuing off the 07/17 crash low, gaps to SMA20/50/200 all narrowing. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | IBM $223.65, RSI 41.4, strong-down; 7D +4.42%; 30D -21.87%; 3M -2.97%; -32.73% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | IBM $237.28, RSI 50, strong-down; 7D +6.09%; 30D -21.44%; 3M +3.27%; -29.04% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-14 | IBM $234.32, RSI 49.5, strong-down; 7D -0.54%; 30D +11.74%; 3M +7.61%; -28.67% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | IBM $235.68, RSI 49.6, strong-down; 7D +0.55%; 30D +14.54%; 3M -7.15%; -29.11% from 52wk high. 1Y -1.55%, vs SMA200 -11.40%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | IBM $235.59, RSI 50.1, strong-down; 7D -0.01%; 30D +4.04%; 3M -20.89%; -29.14% from 52wk high. 1Y -4.13%, vs SMA200 -10.8%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | IBM $234.89, RSI 50, strong-down; 7D -0.30%; 30D -0.44%; 3M -17.54%; -29.35% from 52wk high. 1Y -4.97%, vs SMA200 -10.50%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-15). |
| 2026-09-11 | IBM $243.29, RSI 56.8, weak-up (upgraded from strong-down); 7D +3.58%; 30D +3.10%; 3M -10.63%; -26.82% from 52wk high. 1Y -5.34%, vs SMA200 -6.90% — long trend still genuinely under test but the gap narrowed. News pulled 2026-09-11: analyst Buy/Moderate-Buy coverage and price-target chatter around the Sep 11 move; a securities-lawsuit/guidance-cut overhang already known; no single new catalyst named. Stock-events checked, none on file. No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | IBM $229.55, RSI 44.0, strong-down (downgraded from weak-up); 7D -5.65%; 30D -3.21%; 3M -7.85%; -30.95% from 52wk high. 1Y -13.38% with alpha1y -28.39 and price -11.6% below the 200-day — a broken long trend. Friday fell 3.45% on 2.74x normal volume; regime collapse. News pulled 2026-09-18: quote pages and a July quarter recap, nothing dated on this week's decline. Stock-events checked: none in this window. No newly filed period on disk this cycle. |
| 2026-09-23 | IBM $232.76, RSI 47.0, -1.3% vs SMA20, 30D +0.74%. Flat month under a far 200-day (-10.0%); 1Y -14.50% with 1Y vs S&P 500 -30.27 pts — broken; call is stand aside. News pulled 2026-09-21 (quantum plan, analyst target cuts, Q2 10-Q summary); not pulled for this week's sessions. Stock-events checked: none in the window; Q3 report 10-21. Filed-period check: newest quarter on disk is Q1 2026; Q2 10-Q not on disk and not cited. |
| 2026-09-28 | IBM $220.67, RSI 37.6, -5.8% vs SMA20, 30D -6.3%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-23); revenue was $17.16B. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $16.98B, that is +1.1% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-23. No company event for IBM was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-21) — TipRanks Q2 summary, StockTitan 10-Q summary, MarketBeat call summary, Walnut, IBM Q2 release.
- Scheduled-event check: 2026-10-21-ibm-earnings (scheduled); no IBM row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23.
- Macro: CNBC, Fed delivers its first hike in three years (2026-09-16); Bloomberg, US bond-market slide deepens (2026-09-23); Bloomberg, biggest long-bond ETF hits record low (2026-09-23); CNBC, market sees next Fed hike in October (2026-09-23).
- market-pulse — sector-fund and S&P 500 30-day returns, September 23, 2026.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, IBM row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-23 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-23; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no IBM row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging IBM.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-ibm; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
Primary/source event receipt (captured 2026-09-29, published by 2026-09-28): ibm-logiq-sep24; checked for the September 28 current view.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for IBM: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
IBM); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.