Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
LASR Price Structure
Loading timeframes…
$LASR is cratering: 54.5% below its 52-week high, down 7.9% since August 28 and down 39.2% since June 29, and 31.6% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, LASR $39.55 was -1.3% versus its 20-day average and -7.9% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-07); revenue was $82.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $61.7M, that is +33.8% year over year. Price is far below the 200-day with a death cross; a positive one-year number is residue of the spring run, not support. The standing call is 🔴 Out — collapse regime; watch for a base. Entry $47–$50 on a close above $47.39 after a multi-week base · stop $42 · first target $52 · low conviction on the setup.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — collapse regime; watch for a base. Entry $47–$50 on a close above $47.39 after a multi-week base · stop $42 · first target $52 · low conviction on the setup |
| What is nLIGHT? | A US maker of high-power semiconductor and fiber lasers for directed-energy weapons, aerospace and defense, and industrial uses. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): The directed-energy thesis (Golden Dome, Iron Beam supplier status) is untouched by the tape; the stock has finally stopped making new lows week over week. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-08-07: revenue $82.6M. Prior case: Q2 was a beat (EPS $0.15 vs $0.14) and the stock still fell 25.4% across the print — the market is not paying for the quarter. |
| What is the objection? | Price is far below the 200-day with a death cross; a positive one-year number is residue of the spring run, not support. |
| Stock setup | The long trend is under test below its 200-day average; -1.3% versus the 20-day, -31.6% versus the 200-day, RSI 38.7. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | Below the 50- and 200-day with a death cross | 200-day, $57.75 on 2026-09-23 | Bottom-fishing a collapse is the pattern the desk's call record says loses |
| 🟡 Wait | Three weeks holding above the September lows | $40.06 | The first sign of a base rather than a bounce |
| 🟢 Buy | A close above the August 21 close after a base | $47.39 | Takes out the last close before the late-August leg down |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $52 | Near the 50-day zone; a planning level |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Golden Dome cancellation or a failed demonstration; or a close below $37 | $37 | The directed-energy case is the whole thesis |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$LASR is cratering: 54.5% below its 52-week high, down 7.9% since August 28 and down 39.2% since June 29, and 31.6% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: LASR $39.55, RSI 38.7, strong-down, -1.3% vs SMA20, -31.6% vs SMA200, 7D -1.6%, 30D -7.9%, 1Y +35.8%, -54.5% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A US maker of high-power semiconductor and fiber lasers for directed-energy weapons, aerospace and defense, and industrial uses.
Prior case (2026-09-23). The directed-energy thesis (Golden Dome, Iron Beam supplier status) is untouched by the tape; the stock has finally stopped making new lows week over week.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Q2 was a beat (EPS $0.15 vs $0.14) and the stock still fell 25.4% across the print — the market is not paying for the quarter.
The countercase. Price is far below the 200-day with a death cross; a positive one-year number is residue of the spring run, not support.
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-07); revenue was $82.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $61.7M, that is +33.8% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-22. No company event for LASR was recorded between September 24 and 28.
The call: 🔴 Out — collapse regime; watch for a base. Entry $47–$50 on a close above $47.39 after a multi-week base · stop $42 · first target $52 · low conviction on the setup.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 33.67 |
| RSI (14) | 27 |
| 20-day average ($) | 38.97 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -13.6 |
| 50-day average ($) | 42.32 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -20.4 |
| 200-day average ($) | 57.85 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -41.8 |
| 1D (%) | -5.1 |
| 7D (%) | -12.5 |
| 30D (%) | -12.68 |
| 3M (%) | -51.38 |
| 1Y (%) | 6.21 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -9.32 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -61.28 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Company Overview
One-Liner
nLIGHT designs and manufactures high-power semiconductor and fiber lasers for directed energy weapons, aerospace & defense, and industrial applications.
Business Model
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What they sell | Semiconductor lasers, programmable fiber lasers, fiber amplifiers, beam combination & control systems for high-energy laser (HEL) weapons |
| Who pays | US DoD (Golden Dome, HELSI programs), Israeli MOD (Iron Beam via Rafael), industrial OEMs |
| Revenue model | Government contracts (cost-plus and firm-fixed-price), component sales, R&D contracts |
| How sticky | Very — ITAR restrictions limit competition, qualification cycles are 18+ months, security clearances required |
Key Segments
| Segment | Revenue % | Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laser Products | ~55% | Moderate | Commercial semiconductor & fiber lasers, industrial cutting/welding |
| Advanced Development | ~45% | Explosive | Defense contracts — Golden Dome, Iron Beam, HELSI, directed energy R&D |
Geographic Mix
| Region | Revenue % | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US (DoD/Government) | ~65% | Primary growth driver, ITAR-controlled |
| International | ~35% | South Korea, Europe, China (industrial), Israel (Iron Beam) |
The Directed Energy Thesis
The Cost Problem That Changes Everything
The economics of drone warfare have broken traditional air defense:
| Defense System | Cost Per Intercept | Reload Time | Ammo Limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriot PAC-3 | ~$2,000,000 | Hours (logistics chain) | 16 per battery |
| Iron Dome (Tamir) | ~$50,000 | Minutes | 20 per battery |
| CIWS (Phalanx) | ~$30,000 | Seconds | 1,550 rounds |
| Directed Energy Laser | ~$10 | Instant | Unlimited (electricity) |
A $2,000 Iranian Shahed drone costs 100x LESS than the Patriot missile used to kill it. In a sustained swarm attack — which is exactly what's happening daily in the Gulf — you literally run out of interceptors before the enemy runs out of drones. This isn't a future problem. It's a today problem. The Hormuz blockade makes it an emergency.
The Golden Dome Contract
nLIGHT holds a $171M contract to demonstrate a 1-megawatt class laser for the Golden Dome missile defense program — the most politically protected defense initiative in the current administration. One megawatt is the threshold for shooting down ballistic missiles, not just drones. If the demonstration succeeds (expected this year), the production contract could be worth billions.
For context: the current state-of-the-art deployed systems (Iron Beam, HELIOS) operate at 50-100kW. A 1MW system would be a 10x leap — enough to engage cruise missiles and potentially ICBMs at range.
Iron Beam Supplier Status
Israel's Iron Beam is the world's first combat-proven laser defense system. It has been operationally intercepting rockets, mortars, and drones since late 2025. nLIGHT supplies the fiber laser components. This isn't a lab demo — it's shooting down real threats in real combat. That battlefield validation is worth more than any analyst note.
The Trump Catalyst
"A laser melts the drone. It's a beautiful thing to see." — April 13, 2026
When the President of the United States goes on national television during a military blockade and markets your product category by name, that's not a typical catalyst. That's a signal that directed energy has moved from "experimental defense tech" to "national security priority." Budget allocation follows presidential attention. Always.
Competitive Analysis
The DEW Landscape
| Company | Product | Power Class | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| nLIGHT (LASR) | Golden Dome laser, fiber laser components | 1MW (demo) | $171M contract, Iron Beam supplier | Only US pure-play, ITAR-controlled |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | HELIOS, IFPC-HEL | 60-300kW | Deployed on USS Preble (2025) | Prime contractor, uses merchant lasers |
| RTX (Raytheon) | HEL demonstrators | 50-100kW | R&D phase | Paladin program |
| Northrop Grumman (NOC) | FIRESTRIKE | 50kW modular | Early deployment | Army SHORAD integration |
| EOS.AX (Australia) | DRGNTM 100kW | 100kW | AUD $459M order book | ITAR-free — sells to anyone US won't |
| Rafael (Israel, private) | Iron Beam | 50-100kW (est.) | Combat-deployed | Uses nLIGHT fiber lasers |
Why LASR Stands Apart
- Only US pure-play. LMT, RTX, NOC are defense conglomerates where lasers are <1% of revenue. LASR lives and dies by directed energy.
- Component supplier, not just system integrator. nLIGHT makes the actual fiber laser that goes INSIDE other companies' systems. They win even if Lockheed's HELIOS wins.
- ITAR moat. International Traffic in Arms Regulations prevent foreign companies from competing for US defense laser contracts. EOS.AX (the Australian competitor) built its entire business model around being ITAR-free — serving the 80% of the world that can't buy American.
- Iron Beam validation. No other US company can point to combat-proven laser defense and say "our components are inside that."
The EOS.AX Angle
EOS.AX (Electro Optic Systems, ASX-listed) is the interesting international counterpart. They built the only ITAR-free 100kW laser weapon system in the world. Their order book is AUD $459M. Every allied nation that can't buy from Raytheon — which is most of them — is calling EOS. If LASR is the US play, EOS.AX is the allied-nations play. Both can win simultaneously because they serve non-overlapping markets.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Network effects | 🔴 | N/A for defense components |
| Switching costs | 🟢 | 18+ month qualification, security clearances, system integration testing |
| Cost advantages | 🟡 | Manufacturing scale growing but not yet dominant |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | ITAR restrictions, security clearances, classified program access, Iron Beam supplier relationship |
| Efficient scale | 🟡 | Small TAM currently, but expanding rapidly |
Moat Width: Narrow Moat Trend: Widening (Golden Dome, Iron Beam, ITAR)
Summary:
nLIGHT's moat is built on ITAR regulatory barriers, classified program access, and proven battlefield deployment rather than traditional scale or network effects. The moat widens with every new defense contract because each program creates switching costs and deepens the security clearance advantage. The risk is that prime contractors (LMT, RTX) vertically integrate their own fiber laser capability — but building a laser division from scratch takes years, and the threat environment demands solutions now.
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric | Current (est.) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Market Cap | ~$2.36B (as of 2026-09-23 at $40.98: repriced summary field; share-count basis dated 2026-08-13, not independently refetched this cycle) | Small-cap; the drawdown continues to erode the mid-cap transition |
| Refresh check (2026-08-22) | LASR reported earnings 2026-08-06 — a beat (EPS $0.15 actual vs $0.14 consensus, +6.3% surprise) — but the stock still fell -25.4% across the print (per the August 6 earnings record), by far the sharpest reaction in this table's history | No filed statement covering that print is on disk yet; the beat did not stop the drawdown |
| Revenue (TTM) | $250M (est.) $289.8M (corrected 2026-08-03 from filed quarters — the Q1 2026 10-Q had been on file since May when this estimate shipped; refresh check 2026-08-22: EDGAR's cached key-financials.json still shows the FY2025 10-K, filed 2026-02-27, as its newest full-year figure — no newer full-year filing to fold in) |
Growing rapidly from defense contracts |
| Profitability | Approaching breakeven | Advanced Development segment driving losses toward profitability |
| Cash Position | Strengthened by $50M offering (April 9) | Funds manufacturing scale-up |
Quality Checks
| Check | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FCF positive? | 🟢 | Approaching Already positive — FY2025 FCF +$12.3M ($21.3M operating cash flow − $9.0M capex, per the 10-K) (corrected 2026-08-03); heavy R&D spend for Golden Dome continues |
| Profitable? | 🟡 | Near breakeven, defense revenue ramping |
| Debt manageable? | 🟢 | Low debt, just raised $50M equity |
| Cash runway | 🟢 | Multi-year with new raise + contract milestones |
The $50M Offering (April 9)
The stock dipped 1.3% on a $50M public offering announcement. Dilution concern is valid but context matters: this capital is almost certainly earmarked for Golden Dome demonstration manufacturing. When you have a $171M contract that could turn into a multi-billion production award, raising $50M to fund the demo is smart capital allocation, not a red flag. The market absorbed the offering in one session.
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
Golden Dome demonstration succeeds (2026)
- Evidence: $171M contract already awarded, Iron Beam proves the physics work, 1MW is engineering challenge not physics challenge
- Implication: Production contract worth potentially $1B+. Stock re-rates from "demo company" to "production supplier." Target: $90-120.
Hormuz blockade creates procurement urgency
- Evidence: Daily drone warfare in the Gulf, $2M-per-intercept is unsustainable, Trump publicly endorsing laser defense
- Implication: Emergency supplemental funding for DEW programs. Congressional support becomes bipartisan. Accelerated timelines for deployment.
Iron Beam success drives international adoption
- Evidence: Combat-proven since late 2025, multiple nations expressing interest, drone threat is global
- Implication: nLIGHT components scale through Rafael's system sales. International revenue grows without ITAR constraints (Israel handles export).
Cost-per-shot economics are undeniable
- Evidence: 200,000x cost advantage ($10 vs $2M), unlimited magazine depth, no supply chain for ammunition
- Implication: Once any military proves the technology works at scale, adoption is inevitable. The economics are too compelling to ignore.
Drone swarm threat is accelerating faster than missile defense can scale
- Evidence: Iran producing thousands of Shaheds, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, Ukrainian drone warfare
- Implication: The demand signal for DEW isn't cyclical — it's structural. Every conflict validates the need.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| Golden Dome demo succeeds, production contract announced | $120-150 (70-115% upside) |
| Emergency DEW appropriation in FY2027 defense bill | $90-100 (30-45% upside) |
| Second major defense contract (Navy/Army) | $100-120 (45-70% upside) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
Golden Dome demonstration fails or is delayed
- How it plays out: 1MW is an enormous engineering leap. Thermal management, beam quality at range, reliability — any failure pushes timeline out 12-24 months. Stock corrects 40-50%.
- Probability: Medium
Ceasefire removes urgency
- How it plays out: Hormuz blockade ends, drone threat de-escalates, defense budgets revert to "modernization" pace instead of "wartime" pace. The stock loses its urgency premium.
- Probability: Medium (but our three-markets investigation suggests blockade persists through May minimum)
Prime contractors vertically integrate
- How it plays out: Lockheed or RTX acquires or builds internal fiber laser capability. nLIGHT loses its supplier position on future programs.
- Probability: Low (takes 3-5 years to build, and the threat is now)
Dilution continues
- How it plays out: $50M offering is just the start. Pre-profit defense companies often need multiple raises to fund manufacturing. Each offering dilutes 2-5%.
- Probability: High (expect more offerings, question is whether revenue growth outpaces dilution)
Technology risk — solid-state alternatives
- How it plays out: A different laser architecture (solid-state, free-electron) proves more scalable than fiber. nLIGHT's technology becomes second-best.
- Probability: Low (fiber lasers have won the power-scaling race so far)
Thesis Killers
- Golden Dome contract canceled or transferred to a competitor
- Iron Beam combat failure that discredits laser defense
- LASR loses classified program access or security clearances
- Breakthrough in cheap missile defense that undercuts the cost-per-shot argument
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| Golden Dome demo fails | $35-40 (-43% to -50%) |
| Ceasefire + budget cuts | $45-55 (-21% to -36%) |
| Sustained dilution without revenue growth | $30-40 (-43% to -57%) |
Technical Analysis (as of 2026-07-11 — history)
Price Action Story
LASR has been a 10-bagger in 12 months — from $7.33 (April 2025) to $74.10 ATH (March 25, 2026). The stock pulled back sharply during the early April tariff panic, hitting $54 on March 30 (a 27% drawdown from highs), then bounced on Hormuz blockade news. It faded again through June (RSI 43.6, -8.3% below SMA20 on 2026-06-16), then reversed hard into July — golden cross confirmed (SMA50 > SMA200), RSI back to 55, price $72.05.
Key Technical Levels
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ATH | $74.10 | Set March 25 — still the target on a fresh breakout |
| Current | $72.05 | Above SMA20 ($65.95) — recovery confirmed |
| SMA20 | $65.95 | Price +9.3% above SMA20 |
| Support 1 | $68.23 | Nearest support shelf (2026-07-10 data) |
| Support 2 | $54-57 | March 30-April 7 capitulation base |
| 52-week low | $6.91 | Irrelevant now — different company |
Momentum Read
- RSI 55.1 — Neutral, trending up. Golden cross confirmed — first clean bullish technical signal since the March ATH.
- +7.1% in 7D — Strong bounce, best weekly move since the April blockade rally.
Market-Moving News
Recent News
| Date | Headline | Source | Impact | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Hormuz blockade announced, Trump endorses laser defense | Multiple | 🟢 | Direct catalyst — validates DEW urgency |
| 2026-04-10 | LASR record high after earnings, ties to AI & defense | YouTube | 🟢 | Earnings beat + narrative recognition |
| 2026-04-09 | $50M public stock offering announced | Yahoo Finance | 🟡 | Short-term dilution, long-term capex funding |
| 2026-04-09 | "Is it too late to buy LASR?" — 837% 1Y gain analyzed | Simply Wall St | 🟢 | Retail attention increasing |
| 2026-03-25 | LASR hits all-time high at $73 | MSN | 🟢 | Momentum recognition |
News Patterns
LASR moves on defense contract announcements, geopolitical escalation (especially drone-related), and presidential/congressional commentary on directed energy. Earnings beats cause muted reactions compared to geopolitical catalysts — the stock trades on the DEW narrative, not quarterly revenue beats. Dilution dips get absorbed quickly because the contract pipeline justifies the capital needs.
Hormuz Blockade: Why This Is Urgent
The Strait of Hormuz blockade (starting Monday, April 14) transforms LASR from "interesting defense tech play" to "wartime necessity trade." Here's why:
Daily drone warfare. The Gulf is now a live theater for exactly the threat laser defense was designed to counter. Iranian-aligned forces launch cheap drones at US naval assets. Every day the blockade continues, the case for laser defense gets stronger.
Cost math becomes undeniable. Every Patriot fired at a Shahed drone is a $2M argument FOR directed energy. The Pentagon is watching the cost-per-intercept data in real-time. Emergency supplemental funding for DEW programs becomes politically easy to justify.
Congressional urgency. A blockade creates news cycles. News cycles create congressional hearings. Congressional hearings create supplemental budgets. The Golden Dome program is already politically protected — Hormuz makes it urgent.
The three-markets divergence investigation (April 14) suggests the blockade persists at least through May. That's 4-6 weeks of daily drone engagement video on the evening news, each one an advertisement for LASR's technology.
Related Markets & ETFs
| Symbol | Name | Relationship | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| DFEN | 3x Defense ETF | Sector leverage | Correlated but LASR moves independently on DEW news |
| ITA | iShares US Aerospace & Defense | Broad sector | LASR is small-cap, may not be in index |
| AVAV | AeroVironment | Drone offense | Complementary — drones create the demand for lasers |
| KTOS | Kratos | Drone/DEW | Both offense and defense drone systems |
| ESLT | Elbit Systems | Iron Beam prime | Israeli defense, uses nLIGHT components |
| EOS.AX | Electro Optic Systems | ITAR-free competitor | Allied nations play, non-overlapping market |
Sector Context
LASR moves with the defense sector on broad risk-on/risk-off days, but the DEW-specific catalysts (Golden Dome, Iron Beam, Hormuz) cause it to decouple and move independently. On April 13, the broader defense ETFs were flat while LASR surged 7%+ intraday. This is a stock that trades on its own narrative, not sector flows.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location | File | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Watchlist | The drone-defense watchlist | Tracked in the drone and counter-drone lane |
| Source | sources/tweets/2026-04-13-kawzinvests-hormuz-lasr-blockade.md |
@kawzinvests thesis on Hormuz + LASR + EOS.AX |
| Investigation | The three-markets divergence investigation (April 14) | Hormuz blockade context, three-camp market analysis |
Related Tickers to Monitor
| Ticker | Why Related | Suggested Placement | Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOS.AX | ITAR-free DEW competitor, AUD $459M order book | watchlists/drone-defense.json |
🟢 | Add — allied nations laser play |
| AVAV | Drone offense — creates the demand for DEW | Already in drone-defense | 🟢 | Monitor drone production ramp |
| KTOS | Target drones + DEW systems | Already in drone-defense | 🟡 | Watch for DEW contract announcements |
| ESLT | Iron Beam prime contractor, uses LASR components | Already in drone-defense | 🟢 | Proxy for Iron Beam success |
| LMT | HELIOS program, potential LASR customer | Already in drone-defense | 🟡 | Watch for fiber laser sourcing news |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date | Event | Impact | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 14+ | Hormuz blockade begins | 🔥 | Daily drone intercept footage, cost-per-shot data, congressional reaction |
| Q2 2026 | Golden Dome 1MW demonstration | 🔥 | Success/failure is THE catalyst — binary event |
| Q2 2026 | Next earnings report | 🟢 | Revenue ramp from Advanced Development segment, contract pipeline commentary |
| FY2027 | Defense supplemental budget | 🟢 | Emergency DEW funding in response to Hormuz |
| Late 2026 | Iron Beam international sales | 🟡 | Rafael selling to new countries = nLIGHT component orders |
Key Dates
| Event | Frequency | Next Date |
|---|---|---|
| Earnings | Quarterly | ~May 2026 (est.) |
| Golden Dome demo | One-time | H1 2026 |
| Defense appropriations | Annual | October 2026 (FY2027) |
Entry Strategy (April–July 2026 plan — history; superseded by the Action Matrix above)
Position Sizing
| Conviction | Allocation |
|---|---|
| Speculative | 0% (research only) |
| Low | 1-2% |
| Medium | 3-5% |
| High | 5-10% |
Conviction: High on the thesis, not on the current setup.
Entry Approach
| Strategy | Details |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | $58 - $65 (SMA20 area, recent support) |
| Add on | Pullback to $60-64 with blockade thesis intact |
| Full position at | Golden Dome demo success confirmed |
| Scale out at | $90 (trim 1/3), $120 (trim 1/3), hold remainder for production contract |
Technical Levels
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance 1 | $74.10 | ATH — psychological + technical barrier |
| Resistance 2 | $65.95 | SMA20 — now support, already reclaimed |
| Support 1 | $68.23 | Nearest support shelf |
| Support 2 | $58-60 | April consolidation zone |
| Support 3 | $54 | March 30 capitulation low — hard floor |
| Stop-Loss | $50 | Below all support — thesis broken |
| 52-week high | $74.10 | |
| 52-week low | $6.91 |
Risk Management (April 2026 rules — history)
Position Rules
- Stop-loss at $50 (-28%). This is below the March capitulation low. If the stock breaks $50, something is fundamentally wrong (Golden Dome canceled, technology failure, or defense budget collapse).
- No averaging down below $54. If it revisits the March 30 low, something changed. Reassess before adding.
- Golden Dome demo is binary. If it fails, exit immediately regardless of price. The entire thesis depends on the technology working at 1MW scale.
- Ceasefire watch. If Hormuz blockade ends via ceasefire, don't panic sell — the DEW thesis survives any single geopolitical event. But trim if the urgency premium unwinds.
Sources
- Revenue and cash-flow figures in the 2026-08-03 corrections re-derived from SEC key financials.
Type Link Notes Company https://www.nlight.net IR page, press releases SEC Filings EDGAR: nLIGHT, Inc. 10-K, 10-Q, S-3 (offering) @kawzinvests Twitter/X Hormuz + LASR + EOS.AX thesis News MSN, Yahoo Finance, Simply Wall St Recent coverage cluster Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns) settled summary Settled summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close News receipt news receipt Fetched 2026-09-22 — quote and aggregator pages (MarketBeat) Candidate listing prior market brief Physical-AI candidate list; not a call Scheduled-event check research/stock-events/No LASR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23 Filing cache SEC key financials Newest filed period ends 2026-06-30 (10-Q filed 2026-08-07)
Key Changes vs 2026-07-28
| Metric | 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $63.30 | $68.80 | up |
| RSI | 44.2 | 51.2 | warmed |
| vs SMA20 | -7.1% | +1.4% | reversed to above |
| vs SMA50 | -8.7% | -0.1% | narrowed |
| 7D | -15.86% | -1.74% | moderated |
| 30D | -2.68% | +2.75% | turned positive |
| 3M | -2.57% | -3.07% | deepened |
| 52wkHi% | -27.2% | -20.9% | narrowed |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-08-07. Revenue was $82.6M; GAAP net income was −$1.3M; diluted EPS was -0.02. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-30 | $50.5M | — | −$12.7M | −$11.7M | 2024-08-02 |
| 2024-09-30 | $56.1M | — | −$11.8M | −$10.3M | 2024-11-08 |
| 2025-03-31 | $51.7M | — | −$9.6M | −$8.1M | 2025-05-09 |
| 2025-06-30 | $61.7M | +22.2% | −$4.2M | −$3.6M | 2025-08-08 |
| 2025-09-30 | $66.7M | +18.9% | −$7.3M | −$6.9M | 2025-11-07 |
| 2026-03-31 | $80.2M | +55.2% | −$719,000 | $645,000 | 2026-05-08 |
| 2026-06-30 | $82.6M | +33.8% | −$3.6M | −$1.3M | 2026-08-07 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | Created deep dive. Hormuz blockade catalyst. |
| 2026-05-29 | LASR $74.12, RSI 49.8, strong-up; 30D +6.11%, 3M +9.5%, 1Y +389.89%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | LASR $66.26, RSI 43.6, weak-down; 7D +3.6%, 30D -6.45%, 3M -6.86%; -23.8% from 52wkHi; -8.3% below SMA20 ($72.24). Thesis intact but price action weak. No Golden Dome update. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | LASR $72.05, RSI 55.1, strong-up, golden cross; 7D +7.1%, 30D +2.65%, 3M +3.13%; -17.14% from 52wkHi; +9.3% above SMA20. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | LASR $69.25, RSI 51.7, weak-down; 7D -3.89%, 30D +6.98%, 3M -2.93%; -20.36% from 52wkHi; +4.8% above SMA20, -1.6% below SMA50. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | LASR $70.02, RSI 51.1, strong-up; 7D +1.11%, 30D +9.73%, 3M -7.61%; -16.04% from 52wkHi; +3.1% above SMA20, +0.1% above SMA50. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | LASR $63.30, RSI 44.2, weak-down; 7D -15.86% (incl. a -6.61% single day), 30D -2.68%, 3M -2.57%; -27.2% from 52wkHi (new deepest drawdown); -7.1% below SMA20, -8.7% below SMA50. News was not pulled for that move. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | LASR $68.80, RSI 51.2, weak-down; 7D -1.74%; 30D +2.75%; 3M -3.07%; -20.87% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | LASR $56.16, RSI 39.3, weak-down; 7D -18.38%; 30D -4.30%; 3M -24.02%; -13.46% from 52wk high. Earnings-driven: Q2 beat (EPS $0.15 vs $0.14) reported 08-06 but stock fell -25.4% across the print per the desk's event record; no filed quarter yet. |
| 2026-08-14 | LASR $52.60, RSI 39.8, down; 7D -6.32%; 30D -22.44%; 3M -30.43%; -42.09% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | LASR $47.39, RSI 36.5, down; 7D -9.94%; 30D -34.58%; 3M -39.67%; -45.50% from 52wk high. 1Y +75.19%, vs SMA200 -16.60%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | LASR $42.94, RSI 34.1, down; 7D -9.55%; 30D -27.31%; 3M -42.07%; -50.62% from 52wk high. 1Y +43.95%, vs SMA200 -24.80% — long trend still genuinely under test. News not pulled for this move (cache last fetched 2026-08-08). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | LASR $40.06, RSI 33.6, down; 7D -6.62%; 30D -46.76%; 3M -39.16%; -53.93% from 52wk high. 1Y +35.66%, vs SMA200 -30.10%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-08, nearly four weeks stale). |
| 2026-09-11 | LASR $40.37, RSI 36.4, strong-down (downgraded from down); 7D +0.77%; 30D -23.89%; 3M -42.05%; -53.57% from 52wk high. 1Y +38.44%, vs SMA200 -29.80%. Death cross confirmed (SMA50 $57.22 < SMA200 $57.53), first in this file's history — golden cross no longer intact. Market cap restated at the engine's summary field (~$2.33B). Stock-events checked, none on file. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-08, five weeks stale). No new fundamentals filed since 09-04. |
| 2026-09-18 | LASR $39.84, RSI 38.7, strong-down; 1D +3.67%; 7D -1.31%; 30D -16.79%; 3M -38.45%; -54.18% from 52wk high. 1Y +27.69% with alpha1y +12.68, against price -30.9% below the 200-day and -27.1% below the 50-day, death cross confirmed for a second week — the long trend is genuinely under test and the positive twelve-month number is residue, not support. The prior cycle's paper-book entry and per-cycle position marks were removed from this profile: recommendation surfaces are book-blind. Stock-events checked: no LASR row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-08-08. No newly filed period on disk; the newest filed period ends 2025-12-31. |
| 2026-09-23 | LASR $40.98, RSI 42.0, strong-down; 1D -0.53%; 7D +6.28%; 30D -7.10%; 3M -35.78%; -52.87% from 52wk high. 1Y +33.62% with a one-year excess return of +17.84 points against price -29.0% below the 200-day and -22.5% below the 50-day, death cross still in force — the first 20-day reclaim (+0.8%) since August, inside a long trend under genuine test. Top rewritten with a call (Out until a base forms; trigger the August 21 close, $47.39); the undated Technical Analysis, Entry Strategy and Risk Management sections were date-stamped as history. Market cap restated at the 09-23 price. Stock-events checked: no LASR row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News pulled 2026-09-22: aggregator pages only, no dated cause. Correction: the 09-18 row's filing claim was wrong — the newest filed period on disk ends 2026-03-31 (10-Q filed 2026-05-08); Q2 (reported 2026-08-06) is not in the cache. |
| 2026-09-28 | LASR $39.55, RSI 38.7, -1.3% vs SMA20, 30D -7.9%. The long trend is under test below its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-08-07); revenue was $82.6M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $61.7M, that is +33.8% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-22. No company event for LASR was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| 200,000x cost advantage is the most compelling unit economics in defense | This isn't incremental improvement — it's a paradigm shift. Adoption is when, not if. |
| Iron Beam is combat-proven with nLIGHT components inside | "Does it work?" is answered. The remaining question is "how fast can you scale?" |
| EOS.AX serves the non-US market that LASR can't touch (ITAR) | Both can win — they're non-overlapping. Consider adding EOS.AX to drone-defense watchlist. |
| $50M offering funds demo, not desperation | Capital raise during a $171M contract is smart, not bearish. Market absorbed it in one day. |
| RSI completely reset to 50 after 27% pullback + 20% bounce | Rare for a stock this hot — means room to run without overbought friction |
Open Questions
- When exactly is the Golden Dome 1MW demonstration scheduled?
- What is nLIGHT's specific component in Iron Beam — fiber amplifiers, beam combiners, or full laser assemblies?
- Is Lockheed HELIOS using nLIGHT components or a different fiber laser supplier?
- What's the realistic timeline from demonstration to production contract for Golden Dome?
- Should we add EOS.AX to the drone-defense watchlist as the international DEW play?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake | Lesson |
|---|---|
| Reading the April $54-58 pullback as too early | The Hormuz catalyst thesis did not exist yet. Sometimes the catalyst is the entry signal, not the price level. |
Sources
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, LASR row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-08-07 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-22; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no LASR row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 0 September 24–28 document(s) tagging LASR.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-lasr; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for LASR: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
LASR); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.Additional source receipts moved from the narrative: drone-defense; 2026-09-22-market-brief.
Correction 2026-10-09: "the August 22 close, $47.39" — August 22, 2026 was a Saturday; $47.39 is the August 21 close (bars). Date label corrected; the level is unchanged (sibling of DEFECTS D206).