Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
LITE Price Structure
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$LITE is doing well: up 8.2% since June 29 and up 2.9% since August 28, 25.9% above its 200-day average, and up 466.7% over the past year. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, LITE $921.32 was +0.9% versus its 20-day average and +2.9% over 30 days. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-27 (filed 2026-08-17); revenue was $1.01B. Against 2025-06-28 revenue of $480.7M, that is +109.3% year over year. At about 169x GAAP trailing earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $937, pre-print EPS basis), any demand wobble retraces violently; the president sold stock in early September. The standing call is 🟢 Buy the flag while it holds its floor. Entry $900–$940 while above the August 21 close ($866.71) · stop $840 · first target $1,086 · medium-high conviction.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🟢 Buy the flag while it holds its floor. Entry $900–$940 while above the August 21 close ($866.71) · stop $840 · first target $1,086 · medium-high conviction |
| What is Lumentum? | A supplier of lasers and optical components — externally modulated lasers, transceivers and related parts — for AI data-center networks and telecom. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): Fiscal Q4 2026 (reported 2026-08-11): revenue of $1.01B, up 109%, EPS $3.23 beating estimates, $1.1B of convertible debt retired, and a Q1 FY2027 revenue guide of $1.225B–$1.275B (issuer release, per the news pull). |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-27, filed 2026-08-17: revenue $1.01B. Prior case: Guidance above the last quarter's revenue, on a business the CEO calls the bottleneck; the June quarter is now matched to the filing below; guidance remains a management-release claim. |
| What is the objection? | At about 169x GAAP trailing earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $937, pre-print EPS basis), any demand wobble retraces violently; the president sold stock in early September. |
| Stock setup | The long trend remains intact; +0.9% versus the 20-day, +25.9% versus the 200-day, RSI 52. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🟢 Buy | Inside the flag, above its floor | $900–$940 | The trend-hold entry: a long uptrend resting above its 50-day |
| 🟡 Wait | A break of the flag floor | $866.71 | Below the August 21 close the flag becomes a deeper pullback |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $1,086 | The 52-week high cited in this file |
| 🔴 Out | A close below $840 | $840 | Below the 50-day zone; the flag failed |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | Reduced NVIDIA or hyperscaler optical orders, or volume competition in externally modulated lasers | — | The bottleneck is the thesis |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
$LITE is doing well: up 8.2% since June 29 and up 2.9% since August 28, 25.9% above its 200-day average, and up 466.7% over the past year.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: LITE $921.32, RSI 52, strong-up, +0.9% vs SMA20, +25.9% vs SMA200, 7D -3.5%, 30D +2.9%, 1Y +466.7%, -15.1% from the 52-week high.
Condition check. The $921.32 close is inside the prior $900–$940 flag zone, but a one-day quote does not establish the multi-day flag floor or the next margin proof.
Business and mechanism. A supplier of lasers and optical components — externally modulated lasers, transceivers and related parts — for AI data-center networks and telecom.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Fiscal Q4 2026 (reported 2026-08-11): revenue of $1.01B, up 109%, EPS $3.23 beating estimates, $1.1B of convertible debt retired, and a Q1 FY2027 revenue guide of $1.225B–$1.275B (issuer release, per the news pull).
Prior proof (2026-09-23). Guidance above the last quarter's revenue, on a business the CEO calls the bottleneck; the June quarter is now matched to the filing below; guidance remains a management-release claim.
The countercase. At about 169x GAAP trailing earnings (as of 2026-09-23 at $937, pre-print EPS basis), any demand wobble retraces violently; the president sold stock in early September.
Newest statement check. The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-27 (filed 2026-08-17); revenue was $1.01B. Against 2025-06-28 revenue of $480.7M, that is +109.3% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for LITE was recorded between September 24 and 28. 6 social posts from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.
The call: 🟢 Buy the flag while it holds its floor. Entry $900–$940 while above the August 21 close ($866.71) · stop $840 · first target $1,086 · medium-high conviction.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 824.13 |
| RSI (14) | 37.4 |
| 20-day average ($) | 988.33 |
| vs 20-day (%) | -16.6 |
| 50-day average ($) | 931.65 |
| vs 50-day (%) | -11.5 |
| 200-day average ($) | 777.47 |
| vs 200-day (%) | 6 |
| 1D (%) | -5.22 |
| 7D (%) | -25.31 |
| 30D (%) | -10.36 |
| 3M (%) | 12.46 |
| 1Y (%) | 404.89 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | 389.36 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -27.9 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Company Overview
One-Liner
The monopoly laser maker powering AI optical interconnects — 50%+ global EML market share, sold out through 2028.
Business Model
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| What they sell | Optical and photonic chips, components, modules, subsystems; industrial lasers |
| Who pays | Cloud hyperscalers (via transceiver OEMs), network equipment makers, industrial manufacturers |
| Revenue model | Component sales with long-lead-time purchase agreements (multi-year non-cancelable) |
| How sticky | Extremely — qualifying a new laser supplier takes 12-18 months, NVDA locked in through end of decade |
Key Segments
| Segment | Revenue % | Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud & Networking | ~75% | Explosive | EML lasers, optical transceivers, AI data center interconnects |
| Industrial Tech | ~25% | Steady | Short-pulse lasers, fiber lasers for semiconductor/solar/EV manufacturing |
Geographic Mix
| Region | Revenue % | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| US | ~40% | Growing — new Greensboro NC facility |
| Asia (Japan) | ~40% | Tokyo factory is primary EML production |
| Europe/Other | ~20% |
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| Market share | 50%+ in high-speed EML lasers (Bank of America) |
| Market size (TAM) | $20B+ new addressable market from optical interconnects (Coherent estimate) |
| Growth rate | AI optical market growing 40-60% annually |
| Key competitors | Coherent (COHR) — broader portfolio but lower EML share; II-VI legacy; Broadcom (AVGO) — integrated; no direct EML competitor at scale |
| Position | Monopoly leader in the bottleneck component |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type | Present? | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Network effects | 🔴 | Not applicable to components |
| Switching costs | 🟢 | 12-18 month qualification cycle, NVDA locked through decade |
| Cost advantages | 🟢 | 12x Tokyo capacity scale, InP factory acquisition = vertical integration |
| Intangible assets | 🟢 | EML laser IP, decades of photonics expertise (JDS Uniphase heritage) |
| Efficient scale | 🟢 | Market too small for new entrant to justify fab investment |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Wide Moat Trend: Widening — InP acquisition + new factories deepen manufacturing advantage
Summary:
LITE's moat is the rarest kind in tech: physics-based manufacturing monopoly. EML lasers require specialized epitaxial growth, packaging, and testing that takes years to develop. The InP factory acquisition means LITE now controls its own substrate supply. No competitor can replicate this integrated capability in under 3-5 years, and by then the technology cycle may have moved to CPO (where LITE is also investing).
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role | Name | Since | Background | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CEO | Alan Lowe | 2021 | Former JDS Uniphase exec, 25+ years photonics | "We are the bottleneck" — candid about supply constraints |
| CFO | Wajid Ali | 2020 | Ex-Juniper, ex-Ciena finance | Restructured balance sheet during NVDA deal |
Capital Allocation
| Metric | Track Record |
|---|---|
| M&A discipline | Good — InP factory acquisition was strategic vertical integration |
| Buyback timing | N/A — investing in growth capex instead |
| R&D investment | High — investing in CPO (Wave 4) while dominating current waves |
| Debt management | Moderate — balance sheet restructured per recent news |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation — not flagged
- High turnover in key roles — not flagged
- Related party transactions — not flagged
- Aggressive accounting — not flagged
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric | Current | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | ~169.4x GAAP trailing (as of 2026-09-23 at $937.00: price / $5.53 GAAP trailing EPS, the pre-print basis) — the ~27x figure remains @RichTerry123's adjusted/forward number, not the filings' | Per @RichTerry123 — an adjusted/forward basis at best; treat the 27x as the tweet's number, not the filings' (caveat added 2026-08-03) |
| Market Cap | ~$67.0B (as of 2026-09-23 at $937.00 × 71.5M basic shares per data/stocks/LITE/massive/income-statements.json, period ending 2026-03-28, filed 2026-05-06 — still the newest quarter on disk) |
Multiple restated at the new price; TTM basis unchanged since August 22 |
| Refresh check (2026-09-11) | LITE reported its next quarter on 2026-08-11 — a beat (EPS $3.23 actual vs $2.97 consensus, +8.8% surprise), per the August 11 earnings record | No filed statement covering that print is on disk yet, five weeks after the print; the market cap/P-E figures above still use the pre-print $5.53 GAAP trailing EPS and the FY2026 Q3 (period ending 2026-03-28) share count |
Fair Value Assessment
At elevated multiples with sold-out capacity through 2028 and 40%+ revenue growth, LITE is not cheap but may be justified. The key question: can revenue growth sustain 30%+ for 3+ years? If AI capex continues ramping (and every hyperscaler says it will), the answer is likely yes.
Valuation risk: Extended above SMA200 means any negative surprise triggers a violent correction. The stock can be "right" on fundamentals and still drop 30-40% on a bad earnings print or guidance miss.
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
Monopoly bottleneck in AI's physical layer
- Evidence: 50%+ EML share, no alternative supply chain, CEO confirms bottleneck status
- Implication: Pricing power + demand visibility unlike any other AI play
NVDA $2B non-cancelable validates multi-year demand
- Evidence: Through end of decade, covering Rubin-era GPU interconnects
- Implication: Revenue floor is locked in, not speculative
Sold out through 2028 despite 12x capacity expansion
- Evidence: Extended from 2027 to 2028, still scouting new factory sites
- Implication: Demand growth is OUTPACING massive supply expansion
Four-wave technology roadmap gives longevity
- Evidence: 800G (dominating) → LPO (ramping) → 1.6T (building) → CPO (investing)
- Implication: Not a one-cycle play — each wave extends the growth runway
Vertical integration via InP acquisition
- Evidence: Acquired indium phosphide optical device factory
- Implication: Controls scarce substrate supply, deepens moat vs would-be competitors
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| 1.6T cycle ramps H2 2026 (incremental to 800G) | $1,200-1,500 (new TAM layer) |
| CPO becomes real revenue 2027 | $2,000+ (entirely new market) |
| Hyperscaler capex accelerates beyond current guidance | Multiple expansion to 35x+ |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
AI capex cycle peaks
- How it plays out: Hyperscalers cut spending, "sold out" becomes "overcapacity" in 12-18 months
- Probability: Low (next 12 months) / Medium (2028+)
Valuation compression on growth deceleration
- How it plays out: Revenue growth slows from 40%+ to 20%, multiple compresses from 27x to 15x = 45% drawdown
- Probability: Medium (inevitable eventually, question is when)
Competition catches up
- How it plays out: Broadcom or a Chinese player develops competitive EML, LITE loses pricing power
- Probability: Low (3-5 year timeline for fab qualification)
Technology skip — direct to CPO
- How it plays out: If CPO arrives faster than expected, 800G/1.6T discrete transceivers get bypassed
- Probability: Low (CPO is 2028+ at earliest, LITE is investing in it too)
Thesis Killers
- NVDA or major hyperscaler cancels/reduces optical interconnect orders
- A competitor announces volume EML production (watch Broadcom, Chinese fabs)
- AI capex guidance cuts from 2+ hyperscalers in same quarter
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens | Stock Could |
|---|---|
| AI capex cuts announced | $500-600 (-35% to -45%) — but floors at SMA50/SMA200 |
| EML competition emerges | $300-400 (-55% to -65%) — monopoly premium evaporates |
Market-Moving News
Recent News
| Date | Headline | Impact | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04 | NVDA $2B non-cancelable deal announced | 🟢 | Revenue locked through decade |
| 2026-04 | Sold-out window extended to all of 2028 | 🟢 | Demand > supply even after 12x expansion |
| 2026-04 | CEO: "We are the bottleneck for the industry" | 🟢 | Confirms monopoly + pricing power |
| 2026-04 | InP optical device factory acquired | 🟢 | Vertical integration into scarce substrate |
| 2026-04 | New 240K sq ft Greensboro NC facility | 🟢 | US manufacturing footprint expansion |
| 2026-04 | Balance sheet restructured | 🟡 | Necessary for growth capex, watch debt levels |
News Patterns
LITE moves on capacity announcements and customer commitments. The stock re-rates on every "sold out through [extended date]" headline. Pullbacks tend to come from broad tech selloffs, not LITE-specific bad news. The OFC conference (annual optical conference) is a reliable catalyst.
Related Markets & ETFs
Peer 30D figures refreshed 2026-08-08 (as of the 2026-08-07 close); prior snapshot (07-31 and earlier) showed the whole cohort pulling back together — that has since reversed for most of the group.
| Symbol | Name | Relationship | 30D | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Coherent | Primary peer — broader portfolio, 4/9 traces | +19.58% | strong-up | Cross-thesis convergence champion — round-tripped from the prior pullback |
| CIEN | Ciena | Optical networking systems | -6.48% | weak-down | System-level, not component; still soft but far off the -18% prior read |
| FN | Fabrinet | Contract manufacturer for LITE | +17.15% | strong-up | Toll booth on optical production — reversed with the complex |
| ALAB | Astera Labs | Connectivity semiconductors | -15.00% | weak-down | CPO/PCIe competitor; still negative but narrowed from -27.77% |
| GLW | Corning | Optical fiber/glass | -9.97% | weak-down | Infrastructure layer; narrowed from -37.34% |
Sector Context
The optical supply chain re-rated dramatically on AI demand through mid-2026. As of 2026-07-11 LITE's own tape has pulled back hard (3M -7.94%, -26.13% off the 52-week high) — worth checking whether peers (COHR, CIEN, FN) are pulling back in sympathy or LITE is underperforming the group before reading too much into it.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location | File | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Perspective | The April 12 optical-supercycle perspective | Wave 1 (800G) dominant player |
| Agent trace | An April 11 research trace | 3/3 unanimous convergence |
| Convergence | The cross-trace convergence report | In optical trace only (peer COHR in 4/9) |
| Sources | sources/tweets/2026-04-10-kawzinvests-lite-eml-laser-bottleneck.md |
50%+ EML share thesis |
| Sources | sources/tweets/2026-04-11-richterry123-lite-inp-capacity-sellout.md |
InP acquisition + 2028 sellout |
| Watchlist | optical-supply-chain.json |
Tracked |
Related Tickers to Monitor
| Ticker | Why Related | Suggested Placement | Priority | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR | Primary peer, 4/9 trace convergence | Already in optical-supply-chain | 🟢 | Cross-thesis convergence #1 |
| MRVL | NVDA $2B deal partner (with LITE, COHR) | Already in ai-infra | 🟢 | DSP/SerDes layer |
| AAOI | 1.6T transceiver shipments ramping | Already in optical-supply-chain | 🟡 | Wave 3 play |
| LWLG | TFLN modulator — CPO enabling tech | Already in optical-supply-chain | 🟡 | Wave 4 speculative |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date | Event | Impact | Watch For |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | Coherent Q3 earnings (May 13) | 🟢 | Peer data point — optical demand confirmation |
| Q2 2026 | LITE earnings (date TBD) | 🟢 | Revenue growth rate, capacity expansion update, 2028 demand |
| H2 2026 | 1.6T transceiver shipments begin | 🟢 | New TAM layer — incremental to 800G |
| H2 2026 | NVIDIA Spectrum-X CPO timeline | 🟡 | Wave 4 visibility |
| Mid-2026 | LWLG tapeout | 🟡 | TFLN modulator competition/complement |
Entry Strategy (July 2026 plan — history; superseded by the Action Matrix above)
Position Sizing
| Conviction | Allocation |
|---|---|
| Speculative | 0% |
| Low | 1-2% |
| Medium | 3-5% |
| High | 5-10% |
My conviction: High Target allocation: 5-7%
Entry Approach
| Strategy | Details |
|---|---|
| Entry zone | $750 - $850 (pullback to SMA20 or consolidation) |
| Starter position | 40% of target — price $802.01 is now inside the $750-$850 entry zone |
| Add on | LITE earnings confirming revenue acceleration + raised guidance |
| Full position at | 1.6T cycle revenue contribution confirmed |
Technical Levels
| Level | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | $750-$850 (prior entry zone) | Price currently sitting inside this zone ($802.01) |
| Support 2 | $659 (SMA50, prior reading) | Deeper correction — strong buy zone |
| Resistance | $828.55 (SMA20) | Near-term ceiling to reclaim |
| 52-week high | ~$1,086 | |
| 52-week low | $49.13 | Ancient history — pre-AI rerate |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| 50%+ EML monopoly with no alternative supply chain | Rarest moat in AI — physics-based, not software-based |
| Sold out through 2028 DESPITE 12x capacity expansion | Demand growth is outrunning even aggressive supply response |
| InP factory acquisition | Vertical integration locks out competition for 3-5 years |
| 3/3 agent trace convergence | Independent AI agents all identified LITE as key bottleneck — no human bias |
| NVDA investing $6B across COHR+LITE+MRVL | NVDA is essentially pre-paying to avoid being bottlenecked by optics |
Open Questions
- What is the actual PE on forward earnings? 27x trailing vs forward matters (legacy research question; current GAAP multiple is in the valuation section)
- How much of the $2B NVDA deal is in the current run-rate vs backlog?
- What's LITE's CPO roadmap? If they lead in Wave 4 too, the story extends to 2030+
- Is the Japanese yen a tailwind or risk for Tokyo factory economics?
- What happens to EML demand if CPO adoption accelerates past current timeline?
- Is the July pullback LITE-specific or a sector-wide (COHR/CIEN/FN) rotation out of optical names?
Key Changes vs 2026-07-28
| Metric | 2026-07-28 | 2026-07-31 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $651.93 | $713.94 | up |
| RSI | 37.5 | 45.4 | warmed |
| 7D | -22.16% | -6.43% | moderated |
| 30D | -23.43% | -10.89% | moderated |
| 3M | -24.05% | -24.84% | deepened |
| 52wkHi% | -39.95% | -34.24% | narrowed |
| vs SMA20 | -14.7% | -4.2% | narrowed |
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified derived fourth quarter ended 2026-06-27 and was filed 2026-08-17. Revenue was $1.01B (FY $3.01B less nine months to 2026-03-28 $2.01B). Source: SEC key financials. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-28 | $336.9M | — | −$82.4M | −$82.4M | 2024-11-08 |
| 2025-03-29 | $425.2M | — | −$37.7M | −$44.1M | 2025-05-07 |
| 2025-09-27 | $533.8M | +58.4% | $6.7M | $4.2M | 2025-11-05 |
| 2025-12-27 | $665.5M | — | $64.3M | $78.2M | 2026-02-04 |
| 2026-03-28 | $808.4M | +90.1% | $174.5M | $144.2M | 2026-05-06 |
| 2026-06-27 (FY less nine months) | $1.01B | — | unavailable | unavailable | 2026-08-17 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Created deep dive — monopoly bottleneck thesis from optical supercycle perspective |
| 2026-05-29 | LITE $854.96, RSI 44.9, weak-down; 30D -5.25%, 3M +9.16%, 1Y +1082.84%; -21.25% from 52wkHi; price at upper bound of entry zone ($750-$850). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | LITE $875.36, RSI 47.9, recovering; 7D +10.91%, 30D -1.09%, 3M +34.76%; -19.37% from 52wkHi; -3.2% below SMA20 ($904.67). Strong 7D bounce signals prior entry zone ($750-$850) held as support. Reclaiming SMA20 is the next key confirmation. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | LITE $802.01, RSI 47.3, pullback (weak-down); 7D +7.86%, 30D -9.84%, 3M -7.94% (flipped from +34.76%); -26.13% from 52wkHi; -3.2% below SMA20 ($828.55). June bounce fully reversed, price back inside $750-$850 entry zone. Tape-vs-thesis note added under editorial. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | LITE $732.82, RSI 43, weak-down (pullback); 7D -8.63%, 30D -13.79%, 3M -18.13%; -32.5% from 52wkHi (new deepest drawdown); -7.4% below SMA20 ($791.57). Slide has continued past the $750-$850 entry zone. Golden cross vs SMA200 still intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | LITE $762.99, RSI 46, weak-down (pullback, stabilizing); 7D +4.12%, 30D -9.44%, 3M -13.46%; -23.21% from 52wkHi (narrowed from the deepest drawdown); -2.1% below SMA20 ($779.22). Bounce back inside the $700-$780 entry zone. Golden cross vs SMA200 still intact. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | LITE $651.93, RSI 37.5, weak-down (pullback); 7D -22.16% (incl. a -8.43% single day), 30D -23.43%, 3M -24.05%; -39.95% from 52wkHi (new deepest drawdown, prior record -32.5%); -14.7% below SMA20 ($764). Stabilization from 07/25 has broken decisively. Golden cross vs SMA200 still intact (+9.9%). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | LITE $713.94, RSI 45.4, weak-down; 7D -6.43%; 30D -10.89%; 3M -24.84%; -34.24% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | LITE $890.17, RSI 59, strong-up; 7D +24.68%; 30D +25.89%; 3M -1.51%; -23.89% from 52wk high. News not pulled for this move. |
| 2026-08-14 | LITE $926.14, RSI 58.7, strong-up; 7D +4.04%; 30D +23.16%; 3M -4.59%; -18.91% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | LITE $866.71, RSI 52.5, strong-up; 7D -6.39%; 30D +4.46%; 3M -8.47%; -20.17% from 52wk high. 1Y +638.07%, vs SMA200 +32.80%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | LITE $895.00, RSI 53.1, strong-up; 7D +3.20%; 30D +48.58%; 3M +4.68%; -17.56% from 52wk high. 1Y +560.27%, vs SMA200 +33.70%. News not pulled for this move (cache last fetched 2026-08-15). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | LITE $881.26, RSI 51.8, strong-up; 7D -1.48%; 30D +6.66%; 3M +2.04%; -18.83% from 52wk high. 1Y +521.00%, vs SMA200 +28.60%. Multiples restated at the new price (~159x GAAP trailing P/E, ~$63.0B market cap); the August 11 print still has no filed statement on disk. News not pulled for this move (cache last fetched 2026-08-15, now three weeks stale). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-11 | LITE $927.03, RSI 53.9, strong-up; 7D +5.19%; 30D -0.58%; 3M +0.59%; -14.61% from 52wk high. 1Y +462.25%, vs SMA200 +32.60%. Multiples restated at the new price (~167.6x GAAP trailing P/E, ~$66.3B market cap, same unchanged basis). News pulled 2026-09-08/09: "AI optics boom" sector-sentiment coverage, no single company-specific catalyst. Stock-events checked, none on file. The August 11 print still has no filed statement on disk. |
| 2026-09-18 | LITE $930.91, RSI 54.0, strong-up; 1D +4.17% on 2.25x average volume; 7D +0.42%; 30D +12.48%; 3M +9.52%; -14.26% from 52wk high. 1Y +442.80% with alpha1y +427.79 and price +30.4% above the 200-day — the strongest intact long trend in this library, and the desk's extension board keeps the name in its 30-to-40-percent-above-the-200-day tier. Multiples restated at the new price (~168.3x GAAP trailing P/E, ~$66.6B market cap, same unchanged basis). News pulled 2026-09-16: a September 15 item attributing a rise to AI-driven demand and better-than-expected results, and a September 8 item on profit-taking plus insider selling by the president; the receipt predates Friday's session, so news was not pulled for Friday's move. Stock-events checked: no LITE row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. The August 11 fiscal Q4 print still has no filed statement on disk — the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-28, filed 2026-05-06. |
| 2026-09-23 | LITE $937.00, RSI 54.1, strong-up; 1D -0.92%; 7D +1.91%; 30D +12.87%; 3M +11.21%; -13.69% from 52wk high. 1Y +471.38% with a one-year excess return of +455.6 points and price +29.6% above the 200-day — the strongest intact long trend in the library, in a six-week flag above its 50-day. Top rewritten with a flag-entry call (floor: the August 21 close, $866.71); the July entry plan was date-stamped as history. Multiples restated at the new price (~169.4x GAAP trailing P/E, ~$67.0B market cap, same pre-print basis). The second, duplicate log table under Sources was merged into this one. Stock-events checked: no LITE row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. News not pulled for this week's sessions — receipt last written 2026-09-16. The fiscal Q4 print (2026-08-11) still has no filed statement on disk — the newest filed quarter ends 2026-03-28, filed 2026-05-06. |
| 2026-09-28 | LITE $921.32, RSI 52, +0.9% vs SMA20, 30D +2.9%. The long trend remains intact; The newest verified derived fourth quarter ends 2026-06-27 (filed 2026-08-17); revenue was $1.01B. Against 2025-06-28 revenue of $480.7M, that is +109.3% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-25. No company event for LITE was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
| Type | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns) | ai-infrastructure | Pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-09-23 close |
| Extension-tier placement | 2026-09-18-monster-scan | 30-to-40-percent-above-the-200-day tier |
| News receipt | latest | Fetched 2026-09-16, before this week's sessions; carries the fiscal Q4 2026 release |
| Week's context | 2026-09-21-market-brief | Form 4 filed 2026-09-18; Vik's Newsletter on ECOC 2026; @aleabitoreddit |
| Scheduled-event check | research/stock-events/ |
No LITE row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23 |
| Filing cache | income-statements | Newest filed period ends 2026-03-28, filed 2026-05-06 |
| @kawzinvests | EML monopoly thesis, 50%+ share, NVDA $2B deal | |
| @RichTerry123 | InP acquisition, 2028 sellout, 27x PE | |
| @aleabitoreddit | Photonics scorecard — LITE 2x+ YTD | |
| Agent trace | 3-agent autonomous trace | 3/3 unanimous convergence on LITE as bottleneck |
| Perspective | Optical Supercycle (four-wave framework) | Wave 1 dominant, Wave 4 investee |
| News | Multiple articles April 2026 | NVDA deal, CEO quotes, capacity expansion |
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, LITE row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-27 period, filed 2026-08-17 (SEC XBRL FY less nine months).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-25; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no LITE row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 6 September 24–28 document(s) tagging LITE.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-lite; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for LITE: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
LITE); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.
Correction 2026-10-09: the flag floor was labeled "the August 22 close"; August 22, 2026 was a Saturday, and $866.71 is the August 21 close (bars). Date label corrected in five places; the level is unchanged (sibling of DEFECTS D206, found by the 2026-10-09 fix-lane sweep).