Article published Sep 28, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
RDDT Price Structure
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Reddit, Inc. is cratering: 45.7% below its 52-week high, down 6.5% since August 28 and down 17.9% since June 29, and 15.9% below its 200-day average. At the 2026-09-28 settled close, RDDT $143.08 was -6.6% versus its 20-day average and -6.5% over 30 days. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-31); revenue was $804.9M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $499.6M, that is +61.1% year over year. Heavy insider selling on record, and an argument — relayed on X on September 20 by @aleabitoreddit — that cheap AI agents put open social platforms' content and ad model at risk (attributed opinion). The standing call is 🔴 Out — broken long trend. Entry $172–$180 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $155 · first target $215 · medium conviction on the business, low on the setup.
Quick Snapshot (as of 2026-09-28)
| Question | Answer |
|---|---|
| The call | 🔴 Out — broken long trend. Entry $172–$180 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $155 · first target $215 · medium conviction on the business, low on the setup |
| What is Reddit? | A community platform of user-run forums; revenue is mostly advertising, with a growing data-licensing line sold to AI-model builders. |
| Why look now? | Prior case (2026-09-23): Q2 2026 revenue of $804.9M (+61.1% YoY), GAAP operating margin 28.8% and diluted EPS of $1.25 — filed 2026-07-31. |
| What is the proof? | Latest verified period ended 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31: revenue $804.9M. Prior case: The filed quarter is strong on every line; growth decelerated slightly from Q1's 69.1%. |
| What is the objection? | Heavy insider selling on record, and an argument — relayed on X on September 20 by @aleabitoreddit — that cheap AI agents put open social platforms' content and ad model at risk (attributed opinion). |
| Stock setup | The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; -6.6% versus the 20-day, -15.9% versus the 200-day, RSI 39.9. |
Action Matrix (reviewed 2026-09-28; levels are standing conditions)
| Signal | Condition | Level | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Out | Below the 200-day | 200-day, $171.51 on 2026-09-23 | A broken long trend; washout buys have lost on the desk's record |
| 🟡 Wait | A close back above the September 11 close | $157.77 | The last higher close; reclaiming it restarts the base |
| 🟢 Buy | A reclaim and hold of the 200-day | $172–$180 | Only a repaired trend is a trend-hold entry |
| 🟠 Target | First target | $215 | Roughly halfway back to the $282.95 peak |
| 🔴 Thesis breaks | A Q3 revenue deceleration toward 30% growth, or a close below $135 | $135 | Below the April structure; the multiple would re-rate again |
The Story Right Now (as of 2026-09-28)
Reddit, Inc. is cratering: 45.7% below its 52-week high, down 6.5% since August 28 and down 17.9% since June 29, and 15.9% below its 200-day average.
Data as of 2026-09-28 close: RDDT $143.08, RSI 39.9, strong-down, -6.6% vs SMA20, -15.9% vs SMA200, 7D -9.9%, 30D -6.5%, 1Y -40.9%, -45.7% from the 52-week high.
Business and mechanism. A community platform of user-run forums; revenue is mostly advertising, with a growing data-licensing line sold to AI-model builders.
Prior case (2026-09-23). Q2 2026 revenue of $804.9M (+61.1% YoY), GAAP operating margin 28.8% and diluted EPS of $1.25 — filed 2026-07-31.
Prior proof (2026-09-23). The filed quarter is strong on every line; growth decelerated slightly from Q1's 69.1%.
The countercase. Heavy insider selling on record, and an argument — relayed on X on September 20 by @aleabitoreddit — that cheap AI agents put open social platforms' content and ad model at risk (attributed opinion).
Newest statement check. The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-31); revenue was $804.9M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $499.6M, that is +61.1% year over year.
News and attention check. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-19. No company event for RDDT was recorded between September 24 and 28. 1 social post from tracked accounts mentioned it between September 24 and 28; that is attention, not company news.
The call: 🔴 Out — broken long trend. Entry $172–$180 only after a 200-day reclaim · stop $155 · first target $215 · medium conviction on the business, low on the setup.
Extended analysis
Price Data (live — latest settled close)
A live table: every cell shows the latest settled close, named in the first row. Dated readings live in the Research Log.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| As of (settled close) | 2026-10-16 |
| Price ($) | 156.14 |
| RSI (14) | 51.9 |
| 20-day average ($) | 152.25 |
| vs 20-day (%) | 2.6 |
| 50-day average ($) | 154.4 |
| vs 50-day (%) | 1.1 |
| 200-day average ($) | 164.82 |
| vs 200-day (%) | -5.3 |
| 1D (%) | -2.02 |
| 7D (%) | -2.36 |
| 30D (%) | -0.93 |
| 3M (%) | -13.82 |
| 1Y (%) | -21.53 |
| 1Y vs benchmark (points) | -37.06 |
| From 52-week high (%) | -40.74 |
Prior Research (prepared by 2026-09-23; current call and filed-period check above)
Company Overview
Reddit, Inc. — social platform built on user-generated communities ("subreddits") moderated by volunteers. Founded 2005 by Steve Huffman (CEO) and Alexis Ohanian. IPO'd March 21, 2024 at $34. ~2,555 employees. Revenue mix: digital advertising (~85%) + data licensing (15% and growing). Key 2024-25 catalysts that drove the run-up: Google data deal ($60M/yr, expandable), OpenAI partnership, S&P 600 inclusion, AI-search integration.
Competitive Analysis
| Competitor | Frame | Note |
|---|---|---|
| META | Ad-platform incumbent | (June 2026 reading) RSI 40.3, -23.5% from high — ad revenue convergence not happening then |
| PINS | Social/discovery adjacent | Smaller, fewer AI-data deals |
| SNAP | Younger demo | Lower ad-rate ceilings |
| GOOGL | Distribution + customer | Pays Reddit for data; could in theory build alternative |
| X (private) | Direct competitor | Different content shape, similar AI-data thesis (Grok) |
| Discord (private) | Real-time chat | Different format but overlapping creator economy |
The best peer comparison isn't another social platform — it's the AI infrastructure cohort the brief flags as parabolic. RDDT is the demand-side analog: you can't run a frontier LLM without scraping or licensing social data, and the legal walls being built around scraping (Reddit's vs. Anthropic, vs. Perplexity, vs. internet archive) make licensing the only durable channel.
Management
| Role | Name | Background |
|---|---|---|
| CEO | Steve Huffman | Co-founder; rejoined as CEO 2015; technical background |
| COO | Jen Wong | ex-AOL, ex-Time Inc. — operations and ad strategy |
| CFO | Drew Vollero | ex-Snap CFO during IPO; took Reddit public March 2024 |
Financials
- Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 filed: $663.4M, +69.1% YoY Q2 2026 filed: $804.9M, +61.1% YoY, +21.4% QoQ (folded in 2026-09-04: the massive cache has carried this quarter since its 2026-07-31 filing date; the prior refresh cycle cited Q1 2026 as the newest period) — growth decelerated slightly from Q1's 69.1% YoY pace even as the sequential dollar growth accelerated.
- Q2 2026 profitability: GAAP operating income $231.7M (28.8% margin), net income $252.8M, diluted EPS $1.25 — both up from Q1 2026's $182.9M operating income and $1.01 diluted EPS.
- Earnings beat rate: 100% (since IPO)
- Operating model: Advertising mix is the bulk; data licensing is the growth gem
- Cash position: ~$1.8B post-IPO (single-source figure — filed cash alone was $1.37B at Q1 2026; the investments component is not broken out in the desk's filing caches); no near-term capital need
Valuation
As of 2026-09-23 at $151.98, equity value is about $22.20B (the desk's repriced market-capitalization field). Against trailing-four-quarter revenue of $2.78B (Q3 2025 through Q2 2026, unchanged — no newer quarter has filed), that is about 8.0x TTM revenue — up from 7.93x on September 18, a price-only move. Bears say "any social media name shouldn't trade at a premium to ordinary consumer-internet peers"; bulls say "Reddit isn't a social-media name, it's an AI-data-licensing name with social-media revenue subsidy, and 8x TTM sales is no longer a demanding multiple for that story." Pick a side.
Bull Case
- Data licensing as compounder. Every new foundation model trained = potential incremental Reddit license. Anthropic, Mistral, Cohere, Meta Llama, xAI all need post-2023 internet text. Reddit is the cleanest legal source.
- Earnings beat streak intact. 100% beat rate since IPO is rare for any growth name; the company has not missed a print yet.
- First-to-base in busted-SaaS cohort. The sustained +20%+ recovery while SNOW/ZS/WDAY are still strong-down is durable information — RDDT's thesis is differentiated enough that the basket beta isn't dragging it.
- Search displacement tailwind. As LLM-powered search erodes Google's ad share, Reddit's "answer-shape" content gets more valuable both as training data and as an indexable substrate.
Bear Case
- Insider tape. -$472.7M net selling is a screaming signal. Lockup mostly expired but management still selling aggressively means they don't see the chart's bullishness as durable.
- User-base growth slowing. Q4 2025 DAU growth decelerated; the AI-search thesis means Google is sending fewer users to Reddit, replacing them with bots and AI agents. That's bad for ad revenue per user.
- Margin compression from AI moderation. Reddit faces real costs scaling content moderation as bot/AI content floods subreddits. The volunteer-moderator model wasn't designed for this.
- Multiple compression risk. P/S is about 8.0x TTM revenue as of 2026-09-23. If revenue growth decelerates from 61% toward 30%, the multiple can still re-rate harder even from this lower base.
- The cultural-thesis-basket parallel. Today's brief noted that cultural arbitrage has fully unwound. If RDDT is being mentally bucketed with LULU/NKE/BRBR by indexers, sympathetic selling could resume.
Historical News
- March 2024: IPO at $34/share, opened at $47, closed first day +48%
- June 2024: S&P 600 inclusion → bid up to $80
- Aug 2024: Q2 first earnings print as public — beat, stock to $115
- Late 2024 - early 2025: Run from $115 → $282 on AI-search/data narrative + Google deal expansion rumors
- Mid 2025: Multiple compression begins as broader SaaS death takes hold (ZS, SNOW, WDAY all down -40%+)
- Q4 2025 - Q1 2026: -50% drawdown completes; lockups expire; insiders dump
- April-May 2026 (as written in May): Sustained +20%+ recovery, read then as basing complete — since reversed (see the Research Log)
Related ETFs
- SOCL (Global X Social Media ETF) — RDDT is a top-3 holding by weight
- GAMR (Roundhill Sports & Entertainment) — small RDDT weight
- WCLD (WisdomTree Cloud Computing) — RDDT not in WCLD currently (interesting given the SaaS basket comparison)
- PSCT (Invesco S&P SmallCap Information Technology) — small weight
- No major AI-thesis ETF holds RDDT in size — coverage gap on the AI side
Cross-References
- Watchlists:
watching(added 2026-06-16 to close the prior coverage gap; could also fitcultural-thesisor a newai-data-licensing) - Recent scans (Apr 28 archive): Not flagged in any 2026-04-28 scan
- Perspectives: No active perspective directly covers Reddit; closest is
protein-economy(cultural-arbitrage paradigm, but different vehicle shape)
Related Tickers
- AI-data-licensing peers: GOOGL (customer), MSFT (customer via OpenAI), META (data-rich incumbent)
- Busted-SaaS cohort comparison: SNOW, ZS, WDAY, VEEV, TEAM, NOW
- Social-platform peers: META, PINS, SNAP
- Cultural-thesis cohort (different paradigm): LULU, NKE, BRBR, HIMS, DPZ
Open Questions / What to Watch (as written in May 2026 — history)
- Q1 2026 earnings — guidance on data-licensing pipeline is the binary. Beat-and-raise = $200+ in months. Miss = back to $130s.
- Lockup completion / insider selling rate. Watch the -$472M YTD figure — if it slows in Q2, the bear-case anchor weakens.
- DAU growth. Most important user-side metric; if Q4 2025 deceleration continues into Q1, the ad-revenue thesis fractures.
- New foundation-model data deals. Any Anthropic, Mistral, or xAI announcement = catalyst.
- Sympathetic moves. Does META catch the same bid? GOOGL? If yes = ad-tech rotation real. If no = idiosyncratic, possibly fragile.
- Fresh price history. RESOLVED 2026-06-16 — RDDT added to the
watchingwatchlist and backfilled; now covered.
Financial Proof
Filed-period check (as of 2026-09-28): The newest verified quarter ended 2026-06-30 and was filed 2026-07-31. Revenue was $804.9M; GAAP net income was $252.8M; diluted EPS was 1.25. Source: Massive income statements and the filing. Dated historical tables below retain their own period basis.
The recent filed revenue series shows the direction of the business; missing cells are left unavailable.
| Period end | Revenue | YoY | Operating income | GAAP net income | Filing date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | $348.4M | — | $6.9M | $29.9M | 2024-10-30 |
| 2025-03-31 | $392.4M | — | $3.9M | $26.2M | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-06-30 | $499.6M | — | $67.7M | $89.3M | 2025-08-01 |
| 2025-09-30 | $584.9M | +67.9% | $138.5M | $162.7M | 2025-10-31 |
| 2026-03-31 | $663.4M | +69.1% | $182.9M | $204.0M | 2026-05-01 |
| 2026-06-30 | $804.9M | +61.1% | $231.7M | $252.8M | 2026-07-31 |
Research Log
| Date | Update |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Initial deep dive — RSI 65.4, $166.48, strong-up, +22.41% 30D, -41.16% from 52wk high. "First in busted-SaaS cohort to find a bid." |
| 2026-05-29 | RDDT $176, RSI 63.3, strong-up; +19.12% 30D vs +22.41% prior; 7D +24.23%; 52wk high $282.95, from52wkHi -37.8% vs -41.16% prior. Recovery intact, ideal entry zone ($160) now missed. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-06-16 | RDDT $175.39, RSI 54.8, strong-up; flat vs May 29 ($176, -0.3%); RSI cooled 63.3 → 54.8; +10.23% 30D (window rolled past May surge), +21.52% 3M; vs SMA20 +5.5% (down from +11.1% — price tightening to a rising 20-day); from52wkHi -38.01%. Recovery holding, RSI reset is constructive. Closed the data-coverage gap: added RDDT to the watching watchlist and backfilled its price history, so RDDT is now covered. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-11 | Data as of 2026-07-10 close: RDDT $195.34, RSI 59.5, up trend (regime "pullback"); +11.4% from 06-16 checkpoint, +8.9% above a rising SMA20 ($179.35). 30D +12.74%, 3M +30.79% (both accelerated); -30.96% from 52wk high (narrowed from -38.01%). Recovery extending further, consistent with prior constructive-consolidation read. Insider-selling figure not re-checked since. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-17 | Data as of 2026-07-16 close: RDDT $181.18, RSI 48.3, weak-up (regime "downtrend"); -7.3% from 07-11 checkpoint, -2.0% below SMA20 for the first time in this file's recent history. 30D +3.56%, 3M +8.96% (both moderated); -35.97% from 52wk high (widened). Giving back part of the recovery, not a thesis break. Insider-selling figure not re-checked. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-25 | Data as of 2026-07-24 close: RDDT $168.73, RSI 41.8, strong-down (regime "downtrend"); -6.9% from 07-17 checkpoint, -9.8% below SMA20 and -2.9% below SMA50 (new breach) for the first time in this file's recent history. 30D +4.98%, 3M +8.94% (both roughly flat). -40.35% from 52wk high (widened further). Insider-selling figure not re-checked. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-28 | Data as of 2026-07-28 close: RDDT $178.44, RSI 48.7, weak-up (regime "downtrend"); +5.75% from 07-25 checkpoint, -5.1% below SMA20 (narrowed) and back above SMA50 (+2.1%, reclaiming the 07/25 breach). 30D +2.32%, 3M +20.77% (extended). -36.94% from 52wk high (narrowed). Insider-selling figure not re-checked. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-07-31 | RDDT $140.67, RSI 30.2, strong-down; 7D -16.63%; 30D -28.87%; 3M -15.50%; -50.28% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-08 | RDDT $161.70, RSI 45, strong-down; 7D +14.95%; 30D -17.21%; 3M +3.79%; -45.13% from 52wk high. Earnings-driven: Q2 beat (EPS $1.25 vs $0.96) reported 07-30 but stock fell -21.0% across the print; today reads as recovery off that low. |
| 2026-08-14 | RDDT $178.09, RSI 55.3, up; 7D +10.14%; 30D -10.07%; 3M +12.59%; -44.12% from 52wk high. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-22 | RDDT $153.29, RSI 43.9, strong-down; 7D -13.87%; 30D -10.03%; 3M +8.20%; -45.82% from 52wk high. 1Y -29.89%, vs SMA200 -13.20%. No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-08-28 | RDDT $153.00, RSI 44.6, strong-down; 7D -0.20%; 30D -14.04%; 3M -13.07%; -45.93% from 52wk high. 1Y -32.16%, vs SMA200 -12.90%. News not pulled for this move (cache last fetched 2026-08-15). No new fundamentals re-researched. |
| 2026-09-04 | RDDT $154.46, RSI 47.1, strong-down; 7D +0.96%; 30D -0.52%; 3M -10.95%; -45.41% from 52wk high. 1Y -33.45%, vs SMA200 -11.50%. News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-15, about three weeks stale). Massive cache holds a Q2 2026 quarter (revenue $804.9M, filed 2026-07-31) not yet folded into this profile's Financials section — see the Financials note added this cycle. |
| 2026-09-11 | RDDT $157.77, RSI 50.5, strong-down; 7D +2.14%; 30D +2.82%; 3M -2.67%; -44.24% from 52wk high. 1Y -39.44%, vs SMA200 -9.3%. Valuation recomputed at the current price: ~8.29x TTM revenue (up slightly from 8.1x on the higher price). No new filing this cycle (Q2 2026 remains the newest quarter; the Q3 2026 report is scheduled for late October). News not pulled for this move (last fetched 2026-08-15, now roughly four weeks stale). |
| 2026-09-18 | RDDT $150.85, RSI 45.1, strong-down; 1D -1.30% on 3.18x average volume; 7D -4.39%; 30D -0.57%; 3M -13.78%; -46.69% from 52wk high, a new file low. 1Y -44.28% with alpha1y -59.29 and price -12.6% below the 200-day, -7.9% below the 50-day and -2.2% below the 20-day — a broken long trend, and the 20-day reclaim of the prior two weeks has been lost. Valuation recomputed at the current price: ~7.93x TTM revenue, down from 8.29x on 09-11, a price-only move. The "Held" row was removed from the Quick Snapshot: recommendation surfaces are book-blind. No new filing this cycle (Q2 2026, filed 2026-07-31, remains the newest quarter; the Q3 2026 report is scheduled for late October). Stock-events checked: no RDDT row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-18. News not pulled for this move — receipt last written 2026-08-15. |
| 2026-09-23 | RDDT $151.98, RSI 46.3, strong-down; 1D -2.37%; 7D -3.57%; 30D -0.47%; 3M -5.44%; -42.32% from 52wk high. 1Y -35.99% with a one-year excess return of -51.77 points and price -11.4% below the 200-day, -5.7% below the 50-day, -1.4% below the 20-day — a broken long trend. Top rewritten with a call (Out below the 200-day); the old WATCH/$135-stop framing replaced; stale 'current' history lines date-stamped; the Cross-References holdings line and the frontmatter held flag were removed (book-blind). Valuation recomputed at the repriced market-cap field (~8.0x TTM revenue). News pulled 2026-09-19 (quote pages) — not pulled for the September 21–23 sessions; one attributed X post (2026-09-20) on AI-agent risk. Stock-events checked: no RDDT row dated 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-23. No new filing (Q2 2026, filed 2026-07-31, remains the newest; Q3 due late October). |
| 2026-09-28 | RDDT $143.08, RSI 39.9, -6.6% vs SMA20, 30D -6.5%. The long trend is broken and the stock remains under its 200-day average; The newest verified quarter ends 2026-06-30 (filed 2026-07-31); revenue was $804.9M. Against 2025-06-30 revenue of $499.6M, that is +61.1% year over year. The news search for the latest move failed; the last completed search was on 2026-09-19. No company event for RDDT was recorded between September 24 and 28. |
Sources
- News receipt: latest (fetched 2026-09-19; quote and IR index pages; Q2 2026 call transcript).
- AI-agent risk argument (attributed): @aleabitoreddit, 2026-09-20 — 2026-09-20-aleabitoreddit-the-internet-is-now-cooked-soon-with-rddt-to-oth-16013812.
- Scheduled-event check:
research/stock-events/— no RDDT row dated 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-23. - Filing cache: income-statements (newest filed period ends 2026-06-30, filed 2026-07-31).
- Prior-cycle history: this file's dated update log.
2026-09-28 refresh receipts
2026-09-28 settled-close receipt: *, RDDT row dated 2026-09-28; tape values above are bound to the current summary fields.
2026-09-28 financial-period check: income-statements and key-financials; newest verified 2026-06-30 period, filed 2026-07-31 (Massive statement / SEC period cross-check).
2026-09-28 news receipt check: latest, fetched 2026-09-19; receipt is not current; latest-session cause remains unassigned.
2026-09-28 stock-event scan:
research/stock-events/, no RDDT row dated 2026-09-24 through 2026-09-28.2026-09-28 captured-follows scan: tweets has 1 September 24–28 document(s) tagging RDDT.
Retrospective social-search receipt (captured 2026-09-29): 2026-09-29-social-search-rddt; quality/attention check only, not a September 28 event or price source.
2026-09-29 browser discovery check for RDDT: news-discovery-google-sep29 (key
RDDT); search links only, not evidence of an event or of absence of news.