Conviction: High
Status: Holding — RSI 33.8, recovering from extreme lows, approaching neutral
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 33.8 — recovered from extreme RSI 17 on 02/16. Price slipped back from $210 to $206.73 (-1.9% today). Still in entry zone. AWS + advertising intact. |
| Moat |
Wide (scale, logistics, AWS, data, advertising) |
| Key insight |
RSI continued recovering (17 → 25 → 34) but price gave back gains, -1.9% today. Still -13.3% 30D. SMA20 $214.94 — price is -3.8% below SMA. Thesis unchanged. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI 33.8, recovering from capitulation, still in entry zone |
| Entry Zone |
$195 - $215 |
Current $206.73 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$180 (-13%) |
Below recent support |
| Target |
$275 (+33%) |
Recovery toward recent highs |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$206.73 |
-1.9% |
+2.8% |
-13.3% |
— |
-15.5% |
34 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/22)
| Metric |
02/22 |
02/26 |
Change |
| Price |
$210.11 |
$206.73 |
-$3.38 (-1.6%) |
| RSI |
25.3 |
33.8 |
+8.5 (improving) |
| SMA20 |
$221.65 |
$214.94 |
-$6.71 (SMA declining) |
| vs SMA |
-5.2% |
-3.8% |
Tightening |
Update from 02/22: RSI continued recovering from 25 to 34 — now approaching the oversold/neutral boundary. However price slipped back -1.6% from $210.11 to $206.73, including a -1.9% day today. The SMA is declining toward price (from $221 to $214), which is a positive convergence signal. 30D worsened slightly from -9.2% to -13.3% due to base effect. Still in entry zone. Thesis unchanged: AWS + advertising momentum intact.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail |
| Who pays |
Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform) |
| Revenue model |
Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| AWS |
~17% |
+19% YoY |
Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment |
| North America Retail |
~46% |
+10% YoY |
Marketplace + direct sales |
| International |
~22% |
+9% YoY |
Growing but lower margin |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+19% YoY |
High-margin, fastest-growing |
| Other (Subscriptions) |
~6% |
+11% YoY |
Prime, digital content |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel) |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
- Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
- RSI recovery pattern — Historically, AMZN at RSI < 20 recovers to RSI 50+ within 6-8 weeks.
- Bezos selling is noise — $10.9B in planned diversification, not a signal about business health.
- Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth |
$280 (+35%) — multiple expansion |
| Advertising margin expands |
$300 (+45%) — new earnings power |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
- Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
- Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
- Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.
Thesis Killers
- AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Amazon loses prime subscriber base
- FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$195 |
Recent capitulation low |
| Support 2 |
$185 |
Pre-2025 consolidation |
| Resistance 1 |
$214.94 |
SMA20 |
| Resistance 2 |
$240 |
Aug 2025 resistance |
| 52-week high |
$244.68 |
In-window high |
| 52-week low |
~$158 |
Apr 2025 |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$195 - $215 (current levels) |
| Starter position |
2% of portfolio |
| Add on |
Break above SMA20 ($214) with RSI > 40 |
| Full position at |
RSI > 40 + AWS growth confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7% from $198.79 low). RSI improved 17 → 25. 30D -9.2%. Recovery underway. Upgraded action to Accumulate. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $206.73 (-1.6% from 02/22). RSI 33.8 (continued recovery from 25). SMA20 declining to $214.94, gap tightening to -3.8%. 30D -13.3%. Price choppy but RSI recovery intact. Maintaining Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 on 02/16 = extreme capitulation on zero fundamental change |
Classic overreaction — Bezos selling was noise |
| RSI recovered 17 → 25 → 34 over 10 days |
Recovery momentum building, now approaching neutral |
| SMA20 declining from $221 → $214 while price holds ~$207 |
Convergence happening — gap tightening without price move |
| 30D worsened from -9.2% to -13.3% |
Base effect from prior period; 7D still +2.8% |
Open Questions
- When does AWS report next acceleration data?
- Is Bezos selling program fully disclosed / on a schedule?
- How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None logged yet |
Watch for chasing if RSI overshoots back above 60 quickly |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.