Conviction: High
Status: Watching — RSI ~31 (computed), price stabilizing around $208, recovering from Feb lows
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 30.8 (computed from 19 entries) — approaching oversold/neutral boundary. Price $208.73, +0.2% today. -10.4% 30D. SMA$208.66 (approx from available data). Price essentially AT the moving average. |
| Moat |
Wide (scale, logistics, AWS, data, advertising) |
| Key insight |
Major improvement since 02/26: price recovered from $206.73 to $208.73 (+1.0%), and the 30D loss improved from -13.3% to -10.4%. RSI has declined from 34 to ~31, nearing the oversold zone again — this suggests consolidation at current levels. SMA gap has essentially closed (price ≈ SMA). AWS + advertising thesis intact. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI ~31 approaching oversold again, price at SMA, thesis intact |
| Entry Zone |
$195 - $215 |
Current $208.73 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$180 (-14%) |
Below recent support |
| Target |
$275 (+32%) |
Recovery toward recent highs |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| AMZN |
$208.73 |
+0.2% |
-0.9% |
-10.4% |
— |
-10.4% |
~31 |
🟡 Approaching Oversold |
📈 Accumulate |
Note: RSI and SMA computed from available 19-entry OHLC dataset (standard RSI/SMA fields were not available for this data version). RSI ~30.8, SMA19 ~$208.66. 52wk high based on in-window data; actual highs may differ.
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/26)
| Metric |
02/26 |
03/03 |
Change |
| Price |
$206.73 |
$208.73 |
+$2.00 (+1.0%) |
| RSI |
33.8 |
~30.8 |
-3.0 (approaching oversold again) |
| SMA20 |
$214.94 |
~$208.66 |
-$6.28 (SMA rapidly declining to price) |
| vs SMA |
-3.8% |
~0% |
Price now AT SMA |
Update from 02/26: Price recovered modestly +$2 while RSI declined slightly — showing that RSI normalization has completed and the stock is consolidating at the moving average. The 30D improved from -13.3% to -10.4%. Price at SMA is technically neutral — neither extended nor oversold. The recovery from RSI 17 (02/16) to RSI 34 (02/26) has plateaued; we're now in a consolidation band. Still in entry zone. AWS + advertising thesis unchanged.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud provider (AWS), with dominant positions in digital advertising and logistics.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Cloud (AWS), 3rd-party marketplace, advertising, Prime subscriptions, direct retail |
| Who pays |
Consumers (retail, Prime), enterprises (AWS), advertisers (ad platform) |
| Revenue model |
Marketplace fees, AWS recurring, subscription (Prime), advertising CPM/CPC |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — AWS multi-year contracts, Prime ecosystem lock-in, marketplace flywheel |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| AWS |
~17% |
+19% YoY |
Cloud infrastructure, highest margin segment |
| North America Retail |
~46% |
+10% YoY |
Marketplace + direct sales |
| International |
~22% |
+9% YoY |
Growing but lower margin |
| Advertising |
~9% |
+19% YoY |
High-margin, fastest-growing |
| Other (Subscriptions) |
~6% |
+11% YoY |
Prime, digital content |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More sellers = more buyers = more sellers (marketplace flywheel) |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
AWS: migration cost 12-24 months. Prime: annual subscription habit. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Unmatched logistics network, AWS scale economies |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Consumer data, AWS ecosystem, logistics patents |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Largest cloud + largest e-commerce = impossible to replicate economics |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Widening (AI/ML embedded in AWS; advertising monetization accelerating)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- AWS re-acceleration — AI workloads driving cloud demand. 19% growth could push to 22%+.
- Advertising flywheel — $60B+ run rate, growing 19% with huge margin expansion runway.
- RSI recovery pattern — Held RSI 30-35 zone for 2 weeks post-capitulation (17 on 02/16) — healthy base.
- Bezos selling is noise — $10.9B in planned diversification, not a signal about business health.
- Margin expansion — Cost cuts + advertising growth driving EBIT margin from 5% to 10%+.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AWS accelerates to 22%+ growth |
$280 (+34%) — multiple expansion |
| Advertising margin expands |
$300 (+44%) — new earnings power |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- AWS slowdown — Enterprise cloud budgets tighten in recession.
- Consumer spending recession — Retail revenue pressured.
- Regulatory breakup risk — FTC scrutiny of marketplace/logistics.
- Capex overhang — $100B+ capex plan could compress FCF.
Thesis Killers
- AWS growth drops below 12% for 2 consecutive quarters
- Amazon loses prime subscriber base
- FCF turns negative for 2+ quarters
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$195 |
Recent capitulation low |
| Support 2 |
$185 |
Pre-2025 consolidation |
| Resistance 1 |
~$209 |
SMA20 (approx) — currently AT it |
| Resistance 2 |
$233 |
In-window 52wk high |
| 52-week low |
~$158 |
Apr 2025 |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$195 - $215 (current levels) |
| Starter position |
2% of portfolio |
| Add on |
RSI drops below 30 again = re-entry opportunity |
| Full position at |
RSI > 40 + AWS growth confirmation |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 17 extreme capitulation. -15% 30D. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $210.11 (+5.7% from $198.79 low). RSI improved 17 → 25. 30D -9.2%. Recovery underway. Upgraded action to Accumulate. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $206.73 (-1.6% from 02/22). RSI 33.8 (continued recovery from 25). SMA20 declining to $214.94, gap tightening to -3.8%. 30D -13.3%. Price choppy but RSI recovery intact. Maintaining Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Price refresh. $208.73 (+1.0% from 02/26). RSI computed 30.8 (from 19 OHLC entries; standard RSI field unavailable). 30D improved to -10.4%. Price now AT SMA ($208.66). Consolidating at moving average — healthy base-building. Action: Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 on 02/16 = extreme capitulation on zero fundamental change |
Classic overreaction — Bezos selling was noise |
| RSI recovered 17 → 25 → 34 → ~31: consolidating at SMA |
Base-building pattern confirmed; now at neutral zone |
| SMA dropped from $221 → $214 → ~$209: converged with price |
Convergence complete — price and SMA now aligned |
| 30D improving: -15% → -13.3% → -10.4% |
Base effect rolling off; trend clearly improving |
Open Questions
- When does AWS report next acceleration data?
- Is Bezos selling program fully disclosed / on a schedule?
- How does AMZN's capex cycle affect FCF in 2026?
- Will RSI hold above 30 or retest lower on market weakness?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None logged yet |
RSI 30-35 consolidation at SMA = good accumulate zone, not a sell signal |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.