Conviction: High
Status: Strong recovery — RSI ~49.6 (computed), price $433.35, +13.7% this week — major reversal
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI ~49.6 (computed from 19 OHLC entries) — fully returned to neutral. Price $433.35, +3.4% today, +13.7% this week, -2.8% 30D. SMA19 approx ~$403.50 — price now +7.4% ABOVE moving average. Tax season thesis playing out. |
| Moat |
Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance, Mailchimp marketing) |
| Key insight |
Dramatic reversal since 02/26. Price surged from $389.33 to $433.35 (+11.3%) in ~5 days. The 30D has improved from -30.7% to -2.8% — a remarkable swing. RSI has normalized from extreme 17 (02/22) to neutral ~50. Tax season results appear to be the catalyst. The stock is now ABOVE its moving average for the first time since the selloff. 52wkHi gap closed from -30.7% to -2.8% (in-window high ~$445.64). |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI neutral, price above SMA. Up +11% from last dive. Not a new entry point — hold existing. |
| If not holding |
🔍 Watch |
RSI at 50 with stock up 11% — wait for RSI pullback to 35-45 before entering |
| Entry Zone |
$400 - $425 |
Prior zone now BELOW current price |
| Stop-Loss |
$370 (-15%) |
Below key support |
| Target |
$520 (+20%) |
Recovery toward full recovery level |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$433.35 |
+3.4% |
+13.7% |
-2.8% |
— |
-2.8% |
~50 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Note: RSI computed from 19 OHLC entries (~49.6). SMA20 field N/A in data; approximate 19-period average ~$403.50. 52wkHi based on in-window data ($445.64).
Price vs Last Deep Dive (02/26)
| Metric |
02/26 |
03/03 |
Change |
| Price |
$389.33 |
$433.35 |
+$44.02 (+11.3%) |
| RSI |
34.6 |
~49.6 |
+15.0 (normalized to neutral) |
| SMA20 |
$416.15 |
~$403.50 (approx) |
SMA declined; price now ABOVE it |
| vs SMA |
-6.5% |
~+7.4% |
Price crossed above SMA |
| 30D |
-30.7% |
-2.8% |
Massive improvement |
Update from 02/26: Extraordinary recovery. INTU surged from $389.33 to $433.35 (+11.3%) with +13.7% in the past 7 days. The 30D went from -30.7% to -2.8% — nearly fully recovered. RSI normalized from 34.6 to ~49.6 (neutral). Price has crossed ABOVE the declining SMA20 for the first time since the selloff began. This is consistent with the tax season catalyst thesis: TurboTax filing season is producing strong results. The stock is no longer in the entry zone — existing holders should hold; new buyers should wait for a pullback.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions in both markets.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
TurboTax (consumer tax filing), QuickBooks (SMB accounting), Credit Karma (financial products), Mailchimp (marketing) |
| Who pays |
Consumers (tax filing), SMBs (accounting/payroll), financial product seekers (Credit Karma) |
| Revenue model |
Per-return fees (TurboTax), SaaS subscriptions (QuickBooks Online), lead-gen (Credit Karma) |
| How sticky |
Very high — users return to TurboTax annually with prior years' data; QuickBooks embedded in SMB ops |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Small Business (QuickBooks) |
~55% |
+18% YoY |
QuickBooks Online, payroll, payments |
| Consumer (TurboTax) |
~30% |
+8% YoY |
Seasonal Q2 concentration |
| Credit Karma |
~10% |
+20%+ YoY |
Recovering with rate environment |
| ProTax |
~5% |
+5% YoY |
CPA/accountant tools |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history locked in TurboTax; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 in consumer awareness), regulatory knowledge |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
QuickBooks App ecosystem (700+ integrations), accountant network |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable with AI risk (IRS Direct File, GenAI tax tools) worth monitoring
Key Risk: IRS Direct File
- IRS expanded Direct File program in 2025 to all 50 states
- Currently handles only simple returns (W-2 only, standard deductions)
- INTU's core TurboTax serves complex filers — above Direct File's scope
- Mitigation: TurboTax Live (human expert hybrid) growing rapidly
Bull Case
Why This Could Work
- Tax season catalyst confirmed — +13.7% week = market is pricing in strong tax season results.
- RSI 10.6 → 17.6 → 34.6 → ~50 — Full normalization from extreme to neutral in 2.5 weeks.
- 30D -30.7% → -2.8% — Near-full recovery in price terms; base effect is rolling off rapidly.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant could expand SMB TAM.
- Price above SMA — Technical trend has flipped from down to up.
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| Strong tax season results in May earnings |
$500 (+15%) — re-rating on beat |
| QuickBooks AI drives SMB retention improvements |
$550 (+27%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong
- IRS Direct File expansion — If Congress funds expansion to complex returns, TurboTax TAM shrinks.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools (H&R Block AI, new entrants) at lower price points.
- Consumer recession — Fewer freelancers/gig workers file self-employed returns.
- Credit Karma headwinds — Fintech slowdown, lower loan origination fees.
Thesis Killers
- TurboTax market share declines >5% in one filing season
- QuickBooks Online net churn goes negative
- IRS Direct File expands to cover Schedule C (self-employed)
Entry Strategy
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$416 |
Prior SMA20 resistance, now potential support |
| Support 2 |
$400 |
Psychological round number |
| Support 3 |
$370 |
Stop-loss zone |
| Resistance 1 |
$445.64 |
In-window 52wk high |
| Resistance 2 |
$500 |
Prior multi-year level |
| 52-week high |
~$562 |
Off-window estimate |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| If holding |
Hold above $370 stop; tax season thesis playing out |
| New entry |
Wait for RSI pullback to 35-40 with price near $410-425 |
| Add |
Post-tax season if strong Q2 filing data (May earnings beat) |
| Full |
RSI > 40 + above SMA confirmation (already achieved) |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created deep dive. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. Tax season catalyst. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price refresh. $380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6 (improved from 10.6 but still extreme). 7D -4.8%. 30D -27.5%, 3M -42.5%, 52wkHi -52.7%. Selling continuing despite tax season. Maintaining Strong Buy but adding caution note. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh. $389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 17.6 → 34.6 (largest improvement in coverage: +17 pts). SMA20 dropped from $452 to $416, gap tightened from -15.9% to -6.5%. 30D -30.7% (slightly worse base effect). 1D +2.1%, 7D +2.7% — positive momentum. Changed action to Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Major reversal confirmed. Price $433.35 (+11.3% from 02/26). +13.7% this week. RSI ~49.6 (computed; standard RSI field unavailable). 30D improved dramatically from -30.7% to -2.8%. Price crossed above SMA. Tax season thesis validated in price action. Action: Hold (if in); Watch for pullback (if not). |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 10.6 → 17.6 → 34.6 → ~50 over 2.5 weeks |
Fastest complete RSI recovery in our coverage universe |
| 30D: -30.7% → -2.8% in one week |
Base effect plus price recovery = extraordinary snap-back |
| Price crossed SMA: confirms tax season is working |
Thesis validation in real-time — the catalyst arrived |
| +13.7% in one week = strong signal, not noise |
Market pricing in strong TurboTax/QuickBooks results |
Open Questions
- What specific tax season data drove the +13.7% week?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- What is Credit Karma doing in Q2 (rate stabilization thesis)?
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Will price consolidate or continue higher to 52wk high ($445)?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| Hesitating at RSI 17 in late Feb |
RSI 10.6 → 17 → 34 was the cleanest buy sequence; adding at 17 was correct |
| Worrying about 30D -30.7% |
30D is a lagging indicator; what mattered was the RSI recovery trend |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.