Conviction: Medium (needs research)
Status: Watching — RSI 15.2 (stale from 02/03), -20.4% 30D, extreme oversold
Data note: OHLC data last updated 2026-02-03. All readings are as of that date.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🔴 RSI 15.2 (stale — 02/03) — extreme oversold. Price $152.95, -20.4% 30D, -26.4% from 52wk high. SMA20 $182.03. Price -16.0% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (database monopoly, enterprise contracts) |
| Key insight |
ORCL data is 5+ weeks stale. RSI 15.2 at $400B+ market cap is a rare signal. Oracle's database moat is unassailable — 90%+ of large enterprises run Oracle DB. The OCI AI infrastructure thesis (Stargate partnership) is a long-term catalyst. But with data this stale, the real picture may be very different. Priority: fetch fresh data. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Research / Watch |
RSI extreme but data 5+ weeks stale. Need current price + catalyst research. |
| Entry Zone |
$145 - $160 |
Based on stale data |
| Stop-Loss |
$125 (-18%) |
Below major support |
| Target |
$185 (+21%) |
Recovery toward SMA |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| ORCL |
$152.95 |
-4.4% |
-12.6% |
-20.4% |
— |
-26.4% |
15↓ |
🔴 Extreme Oversold |
🔍 Research |
Note: Data last updated 2026-02-03. All values stale.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Oracle is the world's leading enterprise database and cloud infrastructure company, with dominant positions in relational databases, ERP, and multi-cloud AI infrastructure.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Database (Oracle DB, Autonomous), Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), ERP/HCM (Fusion, NetSuite) |
| Who pays |
Enterprises (Fortune 500), government agencies, financial institutions |
| Revenue model |
License + Support (high-margin), SaaS subscriptions, cloud consumption (OCI) |
| How sticky |
Extremely high — Oracle DB switching cost 3-10 years |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Cloud Services & License Support |
~75% |
+12% YoY |
High-margin, recurring |
| Cloud License & On-Premise |
~10% |
Declining |
Legacy transition |
| Hardware |
~8% |
Declining |
Exadata, SPARC |
| Services |
~7% |
Flat |
Professional services |
Competitive Analysis
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Oracle DB embedded in banking, telecom, government. Migration $10M-$1B+ |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
40+ year brand in enterprise DB |
| Network effects |
🟡 |
OCI partnerships (Azure, AWS) creating multi-cloud moat |
Moat Width: Wide (database); Narrow-to-Moderate (OCI cloud)
Bull Case
- Database monopoly — Oracle DB in 90%+ of large enterprises. No viable migration path.
- OCI growth — AI workload infrastructure growing 50%+ YoY.
- Extreme RSI 15 — At scale ($400B+), RSI < 15 historically reverses within 4-8 weeks.
- Multi-cloud partnerships — Azure/AWS Oracle DB services.
- Stargate AI infrastructure partner — With SoftBank, OpenAI.
Bear Case
- OCI losing ground to AWS/Azure in pure cloud.
- Legacy license decline — On-prem in structural decline.
- Cerner integration — $28B acquisition still digesting.
- Open-source DB competition — PostgreSQL eating SMB market.
Entry Strategy
| Strategy |
Details |
| Priority |
Fetch fresh data + research selloff catalyst |
| Entry trigger |
RSI stabilizes above 20 for 3+ days |
| Starter |
1-2% if thesis confirmed |
| Stop |
$125 (-18%) |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-03 |
NEW — Found in RSI < 25 scan. RSI 15.2 (stale, 02/03). -20.4% 30D. Provisional: Research/Watch. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Data still stale (02/03) — now 5+ weeks old. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 15.2 at $400B+ market cap |
Rare signal for a company of this scale |
| Data stale 5+ weeks |
Real-time picture entirely unknown |
| Stargate AI infrastructure partner |
Long-term catalyst |
Open Questions
- CRITICAL: Current price/RSI unknown
- What caused the -20.4% 30D selloff?
- Is OCI tracking to Stargate commitments?
- What is Oracle's forward P/E at current levels?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.