Conviction: Medium-High
Status: Buy — RSI 38.4, price $509.97, in entry zone, consolidating near SMA
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 38.4 (computed) — approaching neutral from oversold. Price $509.97, +1.6% today, +0.3% 7D, -5.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$514.21 — price -0.8% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (lab equipment, reagents, instruments monopoly) |
| Key insight |
TMO continues steady consolidation. Price essentially flat vs 03/03 ($507.81, +0.4%). RSI improved from 31.2 to 38.4 — the recovery continues its step pattern (5.5 → 19.2 → 32.2 → 31.2 → 38.4). SMA gap narrowed dramatically from -3.2% to just -0.8%. Price is converging with SMA. Still in entry zone ($490-$525). Buy maintained. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
✅ Buy |
RSI 38 recovering, in entry zone, SMA gap nearly closed. Wide moat. |
| Entry Zone |
$490 - $525 |
Current $509.97 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$440 (-14%) |
Below multi-year support |
| Target |
$650 (+27%) |
Recovery toward prior levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| TMO |
$509.97 |
+1.6% |
+0.3% |
-5.5% |
— |
-7.4% |
38 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
✅ Buy |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/03)
| Metric |
03/03 |
03/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$507.81 |
$509.97 |
+$2.16 (+0.4%) |
| RSI |
31.2 |
38.4 |
+7.2 (recovery continues) |
| SMA20 |
$524.67 |
~$514.21 |
-$10.46 (SMA continuing to decline) |
| vs SMA |
-3.2% |
-0.8% |
Gap nearly closed |
| 30D |
-10.9% |
-5.5% |
Continued improvement |
Update from 03/03: TMO continues its steady recovery pattern. Price ticked up slightly to $509.97 (+0.4%) while RSI improved meaningfully from 31.2 to 38.4 (+7.2). The SMA has continued its sharp decline ($524.67 → $514.21), narrowing the gap to just -0.8%. At this pace, price should cross above SMA within the next week. The stepwise RSI recovery (5.5 → 19 → 32 → 31 → 38) is textbook base-building. 30D improved from -10.9% to -5.5%. Buy maintained — still in entry zone and thesis unchanged.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Thermo Fisher Scientific is the world's largest life sciences company, providing analytical instruments, equipment, reagents, and services to every lab and pharma company globally.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
Lab instruments, scientific reagents, specialty chemicals, CRO/bioprocessing services |
| Who pays |
Pharma/biotech (50%), hospitals/diagnostic labs (20%), academic/government (20%), industrial (10%) |
| Revenue model |
Equipment (one-time), consumables/reagents (recurring), service contracts, bioproduction |
| How sticky |
Very high — instruments require calibration, reagents qualified per protocol |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Life Sciences Solutions |
~35% |
+8% YoY |
Reagents, bioprocessing, gene editing |
| Analytical Instruments |
~25% |
+6% YoY |
Mass spec, chromatography |
| Specialty Diagnostics |
~20% |
+5% YoY |
Clinical diagnostics |
| Lab Products & Biopharma Services |
~20% |
+4% YoY |
Lab supplies, CRO |
Competitive Analysis
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Scientific protocols lock in specific instruments/reagents |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Thermo, Fisher Scientific brand trust in research |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
$45B+ revenue = unmatched supply chain scale |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Only company covering full lab workflow |
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable
Bull Case
- Essential infrastructure — Every lab needs TMO products. No substitution.
- Bioproduction secular tailwind — mRNA, cell therapy, gene editing require TMO equipment.
- RSI recovery 5.5 → 38 (step pattern) — Steady, healthy recovery continuing.
- SMA gap nearly closed — Convergence imminent.
- Picks-and-shovels for pharma AI — AI drug discovery increases instrument demand.
Bear Case
- Pharma R&D budget cuts — Largest segment cutting spending.
- Insider selling $323.3M — Among highest in coverage.
- China exposure ~15% — Geopolitical risk.
- CRO competition — PPD segment vs IQVIA.
Thesis Killers
- Top pharma companies announce R&D cuts >10%
- China bans TMO instrument imports
- Bioproduction demand collapses
Entry Strategy
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$490 |
Entry zone floor |
| Support 2 |
$440 |
Stop-loss |
| Resistance 1 |
$514 |
SMA20 — about to reclaim |
| Resistance 2 |
$550 |
In-window 52wk high |
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$490 - $525 |
| Starter |
2% of portfolio |
| Add |
RSI breaks above 45 with price above SMA |
| Full |
RSI > 50 + SMA convergence |
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 5.5 extreme. $504.82. Insider selling $323.3M. Action: Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
Price $510.93 (+1.2%). RSI 19.2 (+13.7 pts). Buy maintained. |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price $515.03 (+0.8%). RSI 32.2. SMA gap -3.8%. Near entry zone top. Buy. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Price $507.81 (-1.4%). RSI 31.2. Consolidation. SMA gap -3.2%. Buy. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Price $509.97 (+0.4%). RSI 38.4 (computed). SMA gap -0.8% (nearly closed). 30D -5.5%. Recovery continues. Buy. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 5.5 → 19 → 32 → 31 → 38 = textbook step recovery |
Base-building pattern continues; SMA crossover imminent |
| SMA declined from $556 → $514: converging with price |
Price may cross SMA without needing to rally significantly |
| 30D: -17.8% → -10.9% → -5.5% |
Steady improvement; will be positive within 1-2 weeks |
| SMA gap: -13% → -3.8% → -3.2% → -0.8% |
Convergence nearly complete |
Open Questions
- What drove the RSI 5.5 extreme? Forced selling?
- Are insider sales ($323.3M) on scheduled plans?
- What is TMO's China revenue exposure?
- When does TMO report next earnings?
Mistakes (Don't Repeat)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| None yet |
Stepwise recovery confirms patience is correct approach |
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.