Conviction: Medium
Status: FRESH DATA — RSI 39.4, price $170.93, recovering from extreme oversold, near SMA
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 39.4 (computed, FRESH) — approaching neutral from oversold. Price $170.93, -4.3% today, -3.1% 7D, -3.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$171.65 — price -0.4% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (1B+ patient records, 90% of top pharma) |
| Key insight |
IQV data is now FRESH after 15+ days stale. The real picture is much better than feared: RSI recovered from 17.4 to 39.4 — a significant improvement. Price rose from $162.31 (stale) to $170.93 (+5.3%). Price is now right at SMA ($171.65). The wide moat thesis is intact. -4.3% today suggests some selling pressure but the recovery from RSI 17 is confirmed. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch / Approaching Accumulate |
RSI recovered to 39; near SMA. Wait for stabilization above $170. |
| Entry Zone |
$160 - $175 |
Current $170.93 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$134 (-22%) |
Below April 2025 52-week low |
| Target |
$217 (+27%) |
Return to 3-month mean |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| IQV |
$170.93 |
-4.3% |
-3.1% |
-3.5% |
-24.4% |
39 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10 stale)
| Metric |
03/10 (stale) |
03/11 (fresh) |
Change |
| Price |
$162.31 (stale) |
$170.93 |
+$8.62 (+5.3%) |
| RSI |
17.4 (stale) |
39.4 |
+22.0 (major recovery) |
| SMA20 |
$195.64 |
~$171.65 |
SMA declined to meet price |
Update from 03/10: CRITICAL — IQV data is now FRESH. The extended RSI 17 reading was stale. Real RSI is 39.4 — the stock recovered significantly. Price at $170.93 is right at SMA. The failed recovery pattern (RSI 14 → 25 → 17) appears to have resolved. Still need to watch for stabilization above SMA before committing.
Company Overview
One-Liner
IQVIA provides data analytics, technology solutions, and contract research services to the life sciences industry.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
More data from trials = better analytics |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year contracts, deeply embedded platforms |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 100+ countries |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
Proprietary datasets covering 1B+ patient records |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Wide moat confirmed — 1B+ patient records, 90% of top pharma.
- RSI recovery 17 → 39 — Bottom formation confirmed.
- P/E ~13x forward vs 5Y avg ~25x — Near valuation floor.
- Price at SMA — Convergence point.
Bear Case
- -4.3% today — Still experiencing selling pressure.
- 3M -24.4% — Significant distance from highs.
- R&DS cancellation trend — CRO pipeline concerns.
- $13B debt — Refinancing cost risk.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-15 |
Created. RSI 14 extreme. $162.31. Wide moat, fair value $210-$230. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$165.62. RSI improved to 25.5 — stabilization. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$162.31. RSI slipped to 17.4 (failed recovery). |
| 2026-03-03 |
OHLC stale. No entry signal. |
| 2026-03-10 |
OHLC still stale (15+ days). |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $170.93. RSI 39.4 (computed). Major recovery from 17.4. At SMA. Watch for stabilization. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 17 → 39 recovery confirmed with fresh data |
Bottom formation validated — the failed recovery resolved |
| Price at SMA convergence |
Critical inflection — hold above SMA = bullish; fail = bearish |
| Stale data masked real recovery |
Always fetch before updating |
Open Questions
- Has the Feb 12 low ($156.67) held? (Appears yes — $170 now)
- Is R&DS cancellation trend worsening?
- What is the refinancing schedule for $13B debt?