Conviction: Medium
Status: FRESH DATA — RSI 26.7, approaching entry zone — price $89.89, oversold
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟢 RSI 26.7 (computed, FRESH) — oversold. Price $89.89, -1.6% today, -6.6% 7D, -11.1% 30D. SMA20 ~$96.72 — price -7.1% below SMA. Now IN entry zone. |
| Moat |
Moderate-Wide — scale and switching costs |
| Key insight |
MDT data is now FRESH after 15+ days stale. The picture is worse than expected: price dropped from $98.61 (stale) to $89.89 (-8.8%). RSI declined from 36.3 to 26.7 — now oversold. Price is now IN the $88-94 entry zone flagged earlier. The PFA franchise (+80% cardiac ablation growth) and MiniMed spinoff catalysts are intact. At RSI 27 in the entry zone, MDT is actionable. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Accumulate |
RSI 26.7 oversold, IN entry zone, wide moat. |
| Entry Zone |
$88 - $94 |
Current $89.89 — IN ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$79 (-12%) |
Below 52-week low ($79.55) |
| Target 1 |
$108 (+20%) |
Analyst consensus zone |
| Target 2 |
$117 (+30%) |
All-time high recovery |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| MDT |
$89.89 |
-1.6% |
-6.6% |
-11.1% |
-9.2% |
27↓ |
🟢 Oversold |
📈 Accumulate |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10 stale)
| Metric |
03/10 (stale) |
03/11 (fresh) |
Change |
| Price |
$98.61 (stale) |
$89.89 |
-$8.72 (-8.8%) |
| RSI |
36.3 (stale) |
26.7 |
-9.6 (worsened significantly) |
| SMA20 |
$100.61 |
~$96.72 |
-$3.89 |
| vs SMA |
-2.0% |
-7.1% |
Much further below SMA |
Update from 03/10: CRITICAL — MDT data is FRESH and shows significant deterioration. Price dropped from $98.61 to $89.89 (-8.8%). RSI fell from 36.3 to 26.7 — now oversold. Price is IN the $88-94 entry zone. The $92 alert has been breached. PFA franchise and MiniMed spinoff catalysts intact. At RSI 27 in entry zone with a dividend aristocrat yield, this is actionable.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Medtronic is the world's largest standalone medical device company — $34B/year spanning cardiovascular, neuroscience, surgical, and diabetes.
Key Segments (Q3 FY2026)
| Segment |
Q3 Revenue |
Q3 Organic Growth |
Key Products |
| Cardiovascular |
$3.457B |
+10.6% |
PFA/Affera system, TAVR |
| Neuroscience |
$2.558B |
+2.5% |
Spinal fusion, neuro-stim |
| Medical Surgical |
$2.173B |
+2.7% |
Hugo surgical robot |
| Diabetes |
$796M |
+8.3% |
MiniMed (spinning off mid-2026) |
Bull Case
- PFA is a multi-year growth driver — Cardiac Ablation +80% global, +137% US.
- MiniMed spinoff unlocks value — Removes GLP-1 narrative, 100+ bps margin uplift.
- IN entry zone — $89.89 is within the $88-94 target range.
- Dividend aristocrat — 48 years of increases, ~3.0%+ yield.
- Cheapest large-cap medtech — P/E ~26x forward vs BSX 57x, SYK 35x.
Bear Case
- 10-year underperformance — Still below Sept 2021 ATH.
- Hugo is years from revenue — ISRG has 10,763+ systems.
- -6.6% 7D — Active selling pressure.
- Spine is structural drag — Mature, price-deflationary market.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-22 |
Created. Price ~$97.58. RSI ~58. Q3 strongest growth in 10 quarters. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$98.61. RSI 36.3. Getting closer to entry zone. |
| 2026-03-03 |
OHLC stale. Watch. |
| 2026-03-10 |
OHLC still stale (15+ days). |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $89.89 (-8.8% from stale). RSI 26.7 (computed). NOW IN entry zone ($88-94). Accumulate. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Stale data masked -8.8% deterioration |
Price moved into entry zone while data was stale |
| RSI 36 → 27 (oversold) |
Selling pressure intensified during data gap |
| $92 alert breached |
Entry zone confirmed — actionable |
| Dividend yield now ~3%+ |
Income support during recovery |
Open Questions
- What drove the -6.6% 7D decline? (Q4 guidance? Sector rotation?)
- Is PFA growth accelerating in Q4?
- What multiple will MiniMed trade at post-spinoff?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.