Conviction: High
Status: Strong hold — RSI 66.3, price $212.44, breaking 52wk high, extended
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI 66.3 (computed) — approaching overbought. Price $212.44, +2.4% today, +12.1% 7D, +12.2% 30D. SMA20 ~$186.14 — price +14.1% ABOVE SMA. Breaking above 52wk high ($203.86). |
| Moat |
Narrow (widening — network effects, zero-trust) |
| Key insight |
NET has broken above its in-window 52wk high. Price surged from $201.48 (03/10) to $212.44 (+5.4%). RSI at 66.3 is getting extended. Price is +14.1% above SMA — the most extended in our coverage alongside INTU. At breakout territory, hold but do NOT add. Wait for pullback to $195-205 range. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
Breakout above 52wk high. Hold core position. Do NOT chase. |
| Entry Zone |
$190 - $205 |
Current price WELL ABOVE zone |
| Stop-Loss |
$170 (-20%) |
Comfortable buffer |
| Target |
$260 (+22%) |
Continued breakout |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NET |
$212.44 |
+2.4% |
+12.1% |
+12.2% |
+2.2% |
66 |
🟠 Near Overbought |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$201.48 |
$212.44 |
+$10.96 (+5.4%) |
| RSI |
61.1 |
66.3 |
+5.2 (approaching overbought) |
| SMA20 |
~$183.30 |
~$186.14 |
+$2.84 |
| vs SMA |
+9.9% |
+14.1% |
Very extended |
Update from 03/10: NET broke above 52wk high ($203.86). Price surged to $212.44. RSI at 66.3 is approaching overbought. The AI traffic layer / zero-trust thesis is fully confirmed by price action. Stop at $170 now has -20% buffer. Hold but do not add at these levels.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Cloudflare is a cloud network platform providing CDN, DDoS protection, zero-trust security, and serverless computing at the network edge.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
300+ POPs globally |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Zero Trust embedded in security stack |
Moat Width: Narrow (widening)
Bull Case
- 52wk high breakout — New highs attract momentum.
- AI traffic layer — Every AI agent call routes through the internet.
- Zero Trust secular tailwind.
- Stop buffer at -20% — Comfortable risk management.
Bear Case
- RSI 66 = approaching overbought — Pullback risk elevated.
- +14.1% above SMA — Most extended in coverage.
- Competition from Zscaler / Palo Alto.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 52.9. $195.85. Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$177.14 (-9.6%). RSI 49.8. Hold with caution. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$173.33. RSI 55.6. Stop danger. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Recovery. $178.83. 30D +7.2%. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Surge. $201.48 (+12.7%). RSI 61.1. Near 52wk high. Hold. |
| 2026-03-11 |
BREAKOUT. $212.44 (+5.4%). RSI 66.3 (computed). Broke 52wk high. +14.1% above SMA. Hold; don't add. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Broke above 52wk high ($203.86) |
Breakout confirms thesis — momentum shift |
| +14.1% above SMA |
Most extended stock — pullback risk but trend is strong |
| $173 → $212 in 2 weeks (+23%) |
Strongest 2-week move in NET deep dive history |
Open Questions
- What drove the breakout? Contract news? Analyst upgrade?
- Should stop be raised from $170?
- How high can NET run before RSI 70+ pullback?