Conviction: High
Status: Holding (Core Position) — RSI 51.4, price $185.93, right at SMA, GTC imminent
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 51.4 (computed) — neutral. Price $185.93, +0.6% today, +0.7% 7D, -2.2% 30D. SMA20 ~$185.63 — price +0.2% AT SMA. Perfect consolidation position. |
| Moat |
Wide |
| Key insight |
NVDA has reached equilibrium. Price at $185.93 is right at SMA ($185.63) — the tightest convergence in weeks. RSI at 51.4 is textbook neutral. This is the ideal setup ahead of GTC Conference. The post-earnings digestion is complete. At SMA with RSI 51, this is the add zone. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Add |
RSI 51 at SMA = ideal. GTC Conference imminent catalyst. |
| Add Zone |
$180 - $190 |
Current $185.93 — IN ADD ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$155 (-17%) |
Below major support |
| Target |
$250 (+34%) |
FY2027 revenue scenario |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NVDA |
$185.93 |
+0.6% |
+0.7% |
-2.2% |
+2.8% |
51 |
🟡 Neutral |
📈 Add |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$182.65 |
$185.93 |
+$3.28 (+1.8%) |
| RSI |
45.9 |
51.4 |
+5.5 (healthy improvement) |
| SMA20 |
~$185.81 |
~$185.63 |
~flat |
| vs SMA |
-1.7% |
+0.2% |
Crossed above SMA! |
Update from 03/10: NVDA crossed above SMA. Price $185.93 is right at SMA $185.63. RSI improved from 45.9 to 51.4 — textbook neutral. Post-earnings digestion complete. GTC Conference is the next catalyst. At SMA with RSI 51, this is the ideal add zone. Core thesis unchanged: $97B FCF, 75% gross margins, Blackwell ramp.
Company Overview
One-Liner
NVIDIA designs GPUs and data center-scale AI infrastructure that powers the majority of the world's AI training and inference workloads.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
7.5M+ CUDA developers |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Entire AI stack optimized for CUDA |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Best performance per watt |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
10,000+ patents, 18 years of CUDA |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- GTC Conference imminent — Product roadmap, Rubin details.
- RSI 51 at SMA = perfect setup — Pre-catalyst accumulation.
- $97B FCF, 75% gross margins — Self-funding growth machine.
- Blackwell ramp + Rubin on deck — 10x+ inference improvement.
Bear Case
- Custom ASIC competition — Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium.
- Export controls — China market foreclosed.
- Heavy insider selling — -$3.0B net.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-26 |
Created post-Q4. $185.57, RSI 63.3. Hold. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Post-earnings digestion. $180.05. RSI ~52.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Stabilizing. $182.65. RSI 45.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-11 |
At SMA. $185.93 (+1.8%). RSI 51.4 (computed). Crossed above SMA. GTC imminent. Add. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Price crossed above SMA at RSI 51 |
Post-earnings digestion complete |
| Tightest price-SMA convergence in weeks |
Coiled spring ahead of GTC catalyst |
| 3M +2.8% |
Positive on intermediate timeframe |
Open Questions
- What will be announced at GTC Conference?
- How does USG export control affect product scope?
- At what point does custom ASIC reach tipping point?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.