Conviction: Medium-High
Status: Hold — RSI 54.3, price $151.61, pulling back from 52wk high, above SMA
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 54.3 (computed) — neutral. Price $151.61, +0.3% today, -2.1% 7D, +11.7% 30D. SMA20 ~$140.81 — price +7.7% ABOVE SMA. Pulling back from $156.43 near-high. |
| Moat |
Narrow (government: Wide; commercial: Narrow via AIP) |
| Key insight |
PLTR cooled from RSI 66.3 (03/10) to 54.3. Price pulled back from $156.43 to $151.61 (-3.1%). This is the healthy reset that was expected after the extended run. Still +7.7% above SMA and +11.7% 30D. AIP commercial growth at +121% YoY remains the driver. Hold existing positions. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI cooled to neutral. Pullback from extended levels is healthy. |
| Add Zone |
$135 - $145 |
Wait for deeper pullback |
| Stop-Loss |
$125 (-18%) |
Below consolidation floor |
| Target |
$200 (+32%) |
AIP commercial acceleration |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| PLTR |
$151.61 |
+0.3% |
-2.1% |
+11.7% |
-19.2% |
54 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10)
| Metric |
03/10 |
03/11 |
Change |
| Price |
$156.43 |
$151.61 |
-$4.82 (-3.1%) |
| RSI |
66.3 |
54.3 |
-12.0 (healthy reset) |
| SMA20 |
~$139.62 |
~$140.81 |
+$1.19 |
| vs SMA |
+12.0% |
+7.7% |
Less extended |
Update from 03/10: Healthy pullback. RSI cooled from 66.3 (near overbought) to 54.3 (neutral). Price -3.1%. Still +7.7% above SMA. AIP thesis intact. Hold.
Bull Case
- US Commercial AIP +121% YoY.
- Government AI tailwind — TITAN, DoD.
- Healthy pullback from extended — Better risk/reward now.
Bear Case
- Karp $4.7B selling — Persistent supply pressure.
- 40x+ revenue valuation — Any miss = large selloff.
- 121% growth unsustainable — Deceleration expected.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 29.7. $131.41. Hold. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$135.24 (+2.9%). RSI 42.2. Recovery. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$134.49. RSI 54.9. Approaching SMA. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$147.22 (+9.5%). AT 52wk high. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$156.43. RSI 66.3. Near overbought. Hold. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$151.61 (-3.1%). RSI 54.3 (computed). Healthy pullback. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 66 → 54 pullback |
Extended stocks correct — healthy and expected |
| Price -3.1% but still +11.7% 30D |
Pullback within strong trend |
| Now +7.7% above SMA vs +12% |
Better positioning |
Open Questions
- Is Karp's selling schedule known?
- What are DOGE impacts on government contracts?