Conviction: Low-Medium (speculative)
Status: FRESH DATA — RSI 39.9, price $20.67, recovered from RSI 15.1, above SMA
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 39.9 (computed, FRESH) — approaching neutral from oversold. Price $20.67, -2.7% today, +16.6% 7D, -3.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$19.80 — price +4.4% ABOVE SMA. |
| Moat |
Narrow (game engine ecosystem — eroding) |
| Key insight |
Unity data is FRESH after 5+ weeks stale. RSI recovered from extreme 15.1 to 39.9. Price dropped from stale $28.81 to $20.67 (-28.3%) — but has bounced +16.6% in the last 7D. The stock is now above SMA. The 3M -58.0% shows the severe damage. Runtime fee debacle aftermath continues. Speculative only. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch / Speculative Only |
RSI recovered, bouncing, but fundamental risk high. |
| Entry Zone (speculative) |
$18 - $22 |
Current $20.67 — in range |
| Stop-Loss |
$15 (-27%) |
Below critical support |
| Target |
$35 (+69%) |
Speculative |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| U |
$20.67 |
-2.7% |
+16.6% |
-3.5% |
-58.0% |
40 |
🟡 Approaching Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/10 stale)
| Metric |
03/10 (stale) |
03/11 (fresh) |
Change |
| Price |
$28.81 (stale) |
$20.67 |
-$8.14 (-28.3%) |
| RSI |
15.1 (stale) |
39.9 |
+24.8 (recovery but at lower price) |
Update from 03/10: FRESH DATA. Stale data masked massive deterioration — price dropped -28.3% from stale reading. But the stock bounced +16.6% in the last 7D and is now above SMA. RSI recovered from 15.1 to 39.9. Still highly speculative. 3M -58.0% is the worst in our coverage.
Bull Case
- +16.6% 7D bounce — Dead cat bounce or recovery?
- Above SMA — Short-term technical positive.
- Game engine duopoly — Unity + Unreal = market.
Bear Case
- -58.0% 3M — Worst performer in entire coverage.
- Runtime fee trust destruction — Developer exodus.
- CEO turnover — Leadership instability.
- Advertising business struggling — Unity Grow weak.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-03 |
NEW — RSI 15.1 (stale, 02/02). -37.2% 30D. Avoid. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Data still stale (5+ weeks). |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $20.67. RSI 39.9 (computed). Price -28.3% from stale. +16.6% 7D bounce. Speculative only. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Stale data masked -28.3% additional decline |
Real picture much worse |
| +16.6% 7D bounce from extreme low |
Dead cat bounce or real recovery TBD |
| 3M -58.0% |
Capital destruction — thesis needs complete re-evaluation |
Open Questions
- What drove the +16.6% 7D bounce?
- Has Unity fully walked back runtime fee?
- Is developer migration materializing in revenue?
- Is Unity viable standalone or headed toward acquisition?