Conviction: High
Status: Hold — RSI 65.5, price $438.47, extended but tax season thesis playing out
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟠 RSI 65.5 — near overbought. Price $438.47, -0.4% today, -6.1% 7D, +10.2% 30D. SMA20 ~$413.91 — price +6.0% ABOVE SMA. Tax season thesis intact. |
| Moat |
Wide (TurboTax monopoly, QuickBooks SMB dominance) |
| Key insight |
INTU bounced from $440.65 to $438.47 — essentially flat. RSI rose from 47.9 to 65.5 — a notable jump suggesting buying pressure. 30D +10.2% confirms tax season catalyst. At RSI 65 and +6% above SMA, this is not a good add point. Hold existing. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔒 Hold |
RSI 65.5 near overbought. Don't add at elevated levels. |
| Add Zone |
$415 - $430 |
Wait for pullback to SMA range |
| Stop-Loss |
$395 (-10%) |
Below SMA and key support |
| Target |
$520 (+19%) |
Recovery toward full levels |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| INTU |
$438.47 |
-0.4% |
-6.1% |
+10.2% |
-34.5% |
65 |
🟠 Near Overbought |
🔒 Hold |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$440.65 |
$438.47 |
-$2.18 (-0.5%) |
| RSI |
47.9 |
65.5 |
+17.6 (major jump — day's buying pressure) |
| SMA20 |
~$411.98 |
~$413.91 |
+$1.93 |
| vs SMA |
+7.0% |
+6.0% |
Tighter to SMA |
Update from 03/11: Price essentially flat but RSI jumped sharply from 47.9 to 65.5 — unusual divergence suggesting strong buying on the day. Tax season thesis intact. At RSI 65 near overbought, don't add. Hold.
Company Overview
One-Liner
Intuit is the dominant tax software (TurboTax) and SMB accounting (QuickBooks) provider with near-monopoly positions.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Multi-year tax history; QuickBooks data migration cost |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
TurboTax brand (#1 consumer awareness) |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Scale across 40M+ annual TurboTax filers |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- Tax season catalyst playing out — +10.2% 30D.
- QuickBooks AI integration — GenAI bookkeeping assistant.
- Most dramatic recovery in coverage — RSI 10.6 → 65.
Bear Case
- IRS Direct File expansion — TurboTax TAM risk.
- AI disruption — New AI-native tax tools.
- 3M -34.5% — Still significant distance from highs.
- RSI 65.5 — Near overbought; pullback risk elevated.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-16 |
Created. RSI 10.6 extreme. $399.40. Action: Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-22 |
$380.55 (-4.7%). RSI 17.6. Maintaining Strong Buy. |
| 2026-02-26 |
$389.33 (+2.3%). RSI 34.6. Accumulate. |
| 2026-03-03 |
$433.35 (+11.3%). RSI ~49.6. Hold. |
| 2026-03-10 |
$473.67 (+9.3%). RSI 62.8. Near 52wk high. Extended. Hold; don't chase. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$440.65 (-7.0%). RSI 47.9 (computed). Healthy pullback from extended. Hold. |
| 2026-03-12 |
$438.47 (-0.5%). RSI 65.5. Near overbought. Don't add. Hold. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 10.6 → 65.5 in under a month |
Tax season + recovery arc produced one of the biggest RSI recoveries in coverage |
| RSI jumped 17 pts on flat price |
Day's buying pressure was strong — institutional accumulation signal |
| 30D +10.2% with -34.5% 3M gap |
Recovery underway but long road back to highs |
Open Questions
- When does INTU report Q2 2026 (tax season results)?
- Is TurboTax market share holding against IRS Direct File?
- Will RSI stay elevated through tax season or pull back?