Conviction: High
Status: Hold/Add — RSI 44.4, price $184.12, near SMA, post-GTC
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 44.4 — neutral. Price $184.12, -1.0% today, +0.4% 7D, -1.5% 30D. SMA20 ~$185.33 — price -0.7% below SMA. Right at SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide |
| Key insight |
NVDA pulled back slightly from $185.93 (03/11) to $184.12 (-1.0%). RSI eased from 51.4 to 44.4. Price slipped just below SMA at -0.7%. Post-GTC digestion continues. At SMA with RSI 44, still in the add zone. $97B FCF, 75% gross margins, Blackwell ramp thesis intact. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
📈 Add |
RSI 44 at SMA = ideal. |
| Add Zone |
$178 - $190 |
Current $184.12 — IN ADD ZONE |
| Stop-Loss |
$155 (-16%) |
Below major support |
| Target |
$250 (+36%) |
FY2027 revenue scenario |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NVDA |
$184.12 |
-1.0% |
+0.4% |
-1.5% |
+5.2% |
44 |
🟡 Neutral |
📈 Add |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$185.93 |
$184.12 |
-$1.81 (-1.0%) |
| RSI |
51.4 |
44.4 |
-7.0 (slight cooling) |
| SMA20 |
~$185.63 |
~$185.33 |
-$0.30 |
| vs SMA |
+0.2% |
-0.7% |
Just dipped below SMA |
Update from 03/11: NVDA slipped just below SMA (-0.7%). RSI eased to 44.4. Post-GTC digestion. At SMA with neutral RSI, this is the classic add zone. Core thesis unchanged: $97B FCF, 75% gross margins, Blackwell ramp, Rubin upcoming.
Company Overview
One-Liner
NVIDIA designs GPUs and data center-scale AI infrastructure that powers the majority of the world's AI training and inference workloads.
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
7.5M+ CUDA developers |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Entire AI stack optimized for CUDA |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Best performance per watt |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
10,000+ patents, 18 years of CUDA |
Moat Width: Wide
Bull Case
- RSI 44 just below SMA = optimal add setup.
- $97B FCF, 75% gross margins — Self-funding growth machine.
- Blackwell ramp + Rubin on deck — 10x+ inference improvement.
- 3M +5.2% — Positive intermediate trend.
Bear Case
- Custom ASIC competition — Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium.
- Export controls — China market foreclosed.
- Heavy insider selling — -$3.0B net.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-26 |
Created post-Q4. $185.57, RSI 63.3. Hold. |
| 2026-03-03 |
Post-earnings digestion. $180.05. RSI ~52.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-10 |
Stabilizing. $182.65. RSI 45.9. In add zone. |
| 2026-03-11 |
At SMA. $185.93 (+1.8%). RSI 51.4. Crossed above SMA. GTC imminent. Add. |
| 2026-03-12 |
Just below SMA. $184.12 (-1.0%). RSI 44.4. Post-GTC digestion. Add. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| Price oscillating around SMA |
Classic consolidation — coiled spring |
| RSI 51 → 44: slight cooling |
No reversal signal — still in healthy add zone |
| 3M +5.2% |
Positive trend on intermediate timeframe |
Open Questions
- What was announced at GTC Conference?
- How does USG export control affect product scope?
- At what point does custom ASIC reach tipping point?
Sources
- Fundamentals figures: company-reported results (quarterly/annual filings) as available at the artifact date; predates the desk's EDGAR reconciliation gate — figures not re-verified after publication.