Conviction: Medium
Status: Watch — RSI 49.3, price $75.32, approaching SMA from below, -53.5% 3M
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 49.3 — neutral, recovering. Price $75.32, -0.2% today, -8.7% 7D, -12.9% 30D. SMA20 ~$78.33 — price -3.8% below SMA. |
| Moat |
Wide (Jira/Confluence switching costs, product-led growth) |
| Key insight |
TEAM recovered from $78.01 to $75.32 — actually pulled back -3.4% but RSI improved from 37.1 to 49.3, indicating internal buying. The -8.7% 7D is concerning. At P/S 3.8x with 83% gross margins and $3.8B RPO (+44% YoY), TEAM is historically cheap for a 20%+ grower. But insiders are not buying. Watch $68-73 for higher-conviction entry. |
Action Matrix
| Field |
Value |
| Action |
🔍 Watch (approaching entry zone) |
| RSI |
49.3 (neutral, recovering) |
| vs SMA20 |
-3.8% below ($78.33) |
| 30D Change |
-12.9% |
| 3M Change |
-53.5% |
| Entry Zone |
$68-73 (retest of Feb low) |
| Stop-Loss |
$60 (-13% from $68 entry) |
| Target |
$105-110 (+53% from $73) |
| Conviction |
🟡 Medium |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| TEAM |
$75.32 |
-0.2% |
-8.7% |
-12.9% |
-53.5% |
49 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$78.01 |
$75.32 |
-$2.69 (-3.4%) |
| RSI |
37.1 |
49.3 |
+12.2 (significant improvement) |
| SMA20 |
$79.78 |
$78.33 |
-$1.45 |
| vs SMA |
-2.2% |
-3.8% |
Slightly further below SMA |
Update from 03/11: Price dropped -3.4% but RSI jumped from 37.1 to 49.3 — strong positive divergence. This suggests buying pressure under the surface even as price pulls back. 3M -53.5% is the second-worst 3M in coverage (after FUBO). P/S 3.8x vs 12x 5Y avg. Insiders not buying. Watch $68-73.
Key Fundamentals
| Metric |
Value |
| Revenue Growth |
+20.1% YoY (Q2 FY2026) |
| Gross Margin |
82.9% |
| Cloud Revenue |
$1.0B+/quarter (+26% YoY) |
| RPO |
$3.8B (+44% YoY) |
| Earnings Beat |
100% (67% above est) |
| P/S |
3.8x (5Y avg ~12x) |
Bull Case
- Widest moat in SaaS — Jira/Confluence switching costs are a fortress.
- RPO +44% YoY — Revenue acceleration baked in for 2-3 quarters.
- Rovo AI monetization — 5M MAUs, $20/user/month pricing.
- P/S at historical trough — 3.8x vs 12x 5Y average.
- RSI positive divergence — Buying pressure building under the surface.
Bear Case
- Insiders sold during capitulation — Zero buying at multi-year lows.
- AI disruption — Linear, GitHub Copilot gaining share.
- Data Center revenue cliff — 30% of revenue in structural decline.
- GAAP still unprofitable — $42.6M loss in Q2.
- 3M -53.5% — Severe capital destruction.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-10 |
Created. $79.31, RSI 46. Watch for $68-73 retest with insider buying. |
| 2026-03-11 |
$78.01 (-1.6%). RSI 37.1 (computed). Approaching oversold. -4.9% today. Watch. |
| 2026-03-12 |
$75.32 (-3.4%). RSI 49.3. Positive RSI divergence. Still heading toward $68-73 zone. Watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI 37 → 49 while price -3.4% |
Strong positive divergence — accumulation under the surface? |
| 3M -53.5% |
Second-worst in coverage after FUBO — extreme selling |
| 3.8x P/S vs 12x 5Y avg |
Historical valuation trough — but insiders not buying |
Open Questions
- Why are insiders selling at multi-year lows?
- How quickly is Rovo AI consumption revenue growing?
- Will the $68 Feb low hold on retest?