Conviction: Low-Medium (speculative)
Status: Watch — RSI 56.7, price $19.76, above SMA, 3M -57.2%
Quick Snapshot
| Signal |
Reading |
| Overall |
🟡 RSI 56.7 — neutral, elevated. Price $19.76, -1.4% today, -4.7% 7D, +0.6% 30D. SMA20 ~$19.27 — price +2.5% ABOVE SMA. Recovery holding above SMA. |
| Moat |
Narrow (game engine ecosystem — eroding) |
| Key insight |
Unity pulled back from $20.67 (03/11) to $19.76 (-4.4% over 2 days). RSI improved from 39.9 to 56.7 despite lower price — strong positive divergence. Price remains above SMA. The +16.6% 7D bounce from last week has partially faded but SMA is holding. 3M -57.2% is the worst in the entire coverage universe. Speculative only. |
Action Matrix
| Action |
Level |
Why |
| Current |
🔍 Watch / Speculative Only |
Above SMA, RSI recovering, but fundamental risk high. |
| Entry Zone (speculative) |
$17 - $21 |
Current $19.76 — in range |
| Stop-Loss |
$15 (-24%) |
Below critical support |
| Target |
$35 (+77%) |
Speculative |
Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| U |
$19.76 |
-1.4% |
-4.7% |
+0.6% |
-57.2% |
57 |
🟡 Neutral |
🔍 Watch |
Price vs Last Deep Dive (03/11)
| Metric |
03/11 |
03/12 |
Change |
| Price |
$20.67 |
$19.76 |
-$0.91 (-4.4%) |
| RSI |
39.9 |
56.7 |
+16.8 (strong positive divergence) |
| SMA20 |
~$19.80 |
~$19.27 |
-$0.53 |
| vs SMA |
+4.4% |
+2.5% |
Still above SMA |
Update from 03/11: Price pulled back but RSI jumped strongly from 39.9 to 56.7 — unusual and positive divergence. Still above SMA at +2.5%. The 30D +0.6% shows stabilization. 3M -57.2% is the worst in coverage. Speculative only but above SMA with RSI divergence is a mild positive signal.
Bull Case
- RSI divergence — Rising RSI on falling price signals accumulation.
- Above SMA — Short-term technical positive.
- Game engine duopoly — Unity + Unreal = market.
- 30D +0.6% — Stabilization after collapse.
Bear Case
- 3M -57.2% — Worst performer in entire coverage universe.
- Runtime fee trust destruction — Developer exodus.
- CEO turnover — Leadership instability.
- Advertising business struggling — Unity Grow weak.
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-03-03 |
NEW — RSI 15.1 (stale, 02/02). -37.2% 30D. Avoid. |
| 2026-03-11 |
FRESH DATA. $20.67. RSI 39.9. Price -28.3% from stale. +16.6% 7D bounce. Speculative only. |
| 2026-03-12 |
$19.76 (-4.4%). RSI 56.7. Strong positive divergence. Above SMA. Speculative watch. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| RSI jumped 17 pts while price fell |
Strong accumulation signal — smart money buying dip |
| 3M -57.2% — worst in coverage |
Any recovery is from a very deep hole |
| Still above SMA |
Technical positive holding |
Open Questions
- What drove the +16.6% 7D bounce last week?
- Has Unity fully walked back runtime fee?
- Is developer migration materializing in revenue?
- Is Unity viable standalone or headed toward acquisition?