Editorial Note: AMZN at $238.15 RSI 71 just had its best week in the tracking period — +10.1% 7D. The stock surged from $209 to $238, reclaiming ground above both SMA20 (+12.2%) and SMA200 (+5.9%). But the death cross remains active (SMA50 $213 vs SMA200 $225), and RSI 71 is approaching overbought territory. This is a momentum trade, not a structural recovery yet. AWS cloud infrastructure is winning the narrative vs SaaS application layer (NOW, CRM, SNOW all crashing). The market is saying: infrastructure spend is real, but the software built on it isn't generating enough ROI.
Quick Snapshot
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| RSI (14) |
71.1 |
Approaching overbought |
| Trend |
Up |
Bullish but death cross lingers |
| Death cross |
Yes |
Active (SMA50 < SMA200) |
| SMA20 vs Price |
+12.2% above |
Well above |
| SMA200 vs Price |
+5.9% above |
Reclaimed structural level |
| 1Y return |
+28.8% |
Solid |
| HELD POSITION |
35 shares @ $204.53 avg |
+16.4% P/L |
Action Matrix
| Scenario |
Level |
Notes |
| Entry zone |
$215–$225 |
SMA50/SMA200 confluence |
| Stop-loss |
$190 |
Below cost basis |
| Target (base) |
$259 |
Prior 52wk high |
| Target (bull) |
$280 |
New high on AWS momentum |
| Overbought alert |
RSI 75 |
Consider partial profit-taking |
Price Data
| Metric |
Value |
| Price |
$238.15 |
| RSI (14) |
71.1 (approaching overbought) |
| SMA20 |
$212.19 (+12.2%) |
| SMA50 |
$213.40 (+11.6%) |
| SMA200 |
$224.86 (+5.9%) |
| Trend |
Up |
| Signal |
Death cross (active but price above both MAs) |
| 7D |
+10.1% |
| 30D |
+11.1% |
| 3M |
-3.4% |
| 1Y |
+28.8% |
| 3Y |
+133.3% |
| 5Y |
+41.2% |
| Alpha 1Y vs SPY |
+0.1% |
| From 52wk High |
-7.9% |
Key Changes vs 04/03
| Metric |
04/03 |
04/10 |
Change |
| Price |
$209.77 |
$238.15 |
+13.5% |
| RSI |
49.7 |
71.1 |
Massive RSI expansion |
| Trend |
Strong-down |
Up |
UPGRADED |
| vs SMA200 |
+0.2% |
+5.9% |
Reclaimed and extended above |
| Position P/L |
+2.6% |
+16.4% |
Significant gain |
| Verdict |
Best weekly move in portfolio. RSI 71 approaching overbought. Consider partial profit-taking if RSI hits 75. |
|
|