Article published Jun 25, 2026. Prices below use latest available snapshots.
Question: Quantum-compute cohort first-pass triage — real-vs-vaporware across the 7 pure-plays (IONQ RGTI QBTS QUBT INFQ ARQQ LAES) Verdict: open
What we're asking
White House committed ~$2B (Chips Act, 2026-05-21) as minority equity stakes in quantum firms (QBTS/RGTI/Infleqtion/Atom/PsiQuantum/Quantinuum/Diraq, up to $100M each); user is "seeing quantum actually work" → THESIS.md Pillar 6. First-pass triage of the 7 listed pure-plays on the one question that matters for pre-revenue names: which have a forming business vs which are story-only? Grounded in on-disk Massive financials (income/balance/cashflow). Full 10-Ks via EDGAR are the next pass.
What we found
| Name | Modality | Latest q rev | Op cash burn/q | Runway* | Gov-funded | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | trapped-ion | $64.7M (8× YoY) | −$151M | ~3.7yr | No (excluded) | real-business-forming |
| INFQ | neutral-atom | $9.5M (gross-profit+) | −$19M | ~3.5–6yr | Yes | real-business-forming |
| RGTI | superconducting | $4.4M | −$16M | ~6.7yr | Yes | promising / most survivable |
| QBTS | annealing | ~$3M flat | −$45M (tripled) | ~3.4yr | Yes | promising / weakest |
| QUBT | photonic | $3.7M (1 print) | −$9M | >100q (cash fortress) | adjacency | promising / unproven |
| LAES | quantum-resistant | $18.3M (FY) | −$31.3M/yr | ~$417M cash (yrs) | adjacency | real business — biggest cash |
| ARQQ | encryption | $67K (negligible) | −$12.5M | ~2 quarters | adjacency | WEAKEST — near out of runway |
*Runway = operating cash burn vs liquid balance. EDGAR update (2026-06-25 — IFRS mapping now live): the two "deferred" names are no longer blind. LAES is a real business ($18.3M revenue, $417.7M cash). ARQQ is the opposite surprise — negligible revenue ($67K), only ~$24.8M cash against −$12.5M/q burn ≈ 2 quarters of runway, the weakest of the seven (dilution-or-bust). Discrete cash (which the fundamentals feed lacked) now confirms: IONQ ~$2.0B liquid, QUBT ~$986M, QBTS ~$588M, RGTI ~$48M cash; INFQ is tighter than the proxy implied — $84.7M cash ≈ 4–5 quarters, not 6 years. Price / RSI / multi-year-return figures throughout are quoted verbatim from the quantum-compute scan summaries (price truth, 2026-06-25); financials from EDGAR XBRL on disk.
- IONQ — the only one with a real, scaling top line (~$65M/q, ~8× YoY) — but heaviest burn (−$151M/q), acquisition-fueled (intangibles jumped to $781M). NOT in the WH funding list (its ~$2.3B cushion doesn't need it; the exclusion is a signal to verify).
- INFQ (Infleqtion, neutral-atom, de-SPAC) — most genuinely operating: ~$9.5M gross-profit-positive revenue, gov-funded — but only one quarter on disk + very young listing.
- RGTI — most survivable pre-revenue bet: tiny $16M/q burn, ~6.7yr runway, gov-funded; revenue still a $4.4M rounding error.
- QBTS — the concern: flat ~$3M revenue + operating burn TRIPLED to $45M/q in 26Q1; the only deteriorating burn/revenue combo. The burn jump is the #1 diligence question.
- QUBT — a ~$1B cash fortress (from equity issuance) on ~$3.7M revenue; unlimited runway, unproven business.
- ARQQ / LAES — RESOLVED via EDGAR IFRS XBRL (see EDGAR update above): LAES is a real business ($18.3M rev / $417M cash); ARQQ is near-out-of-runway ($67K rev / ~$24.8M cash / ~2-quarter burn) — the weakest of the seven. Both still deeply underwater multi-year (ARQQ −88%/5y despite the +118%/3m rip; LAES −80%/3y) — fundamentals now visible; the multi-year value-destruction context stands.
- Cross-cutting: the POSITIVE GAAP net income on IONQ/RGTI/QUBT is warrant/derivative fair-value gains, not earnings — read operating burn + runway only. (RGTI's basic-positive / diluted-negative EPS sign-flip is the tell.)
Verdict + reasoning
First-pass tiering (NOT a buy/sell — pre-deep-dive): IONQ + INFQ = real-business-forming (revenue + runway); RGTI = survivable-pre-revenue (gov-funded, longest runway); QBTS / QUBT = funded-but-unproven (QBTS burn-spike flag); ARQQ / LAES = deferred (no financials).
Next step (the deep-dive program): pull each name's 10-K via EDGAR — the tooling for XBRL financials (incl. the cash line) and the underlying filing is now built — to (a) split cash vs investments + confirm true runway, (b) verify the warrant-gain mechanics, (c) read the WH equity-stake terms (RGTI/QBTS/INFQ), (d) explain QBTS's burn tripling, (e) backfill ARQQ/LAES financials. When ≥3 full deep-dives converge → graduate quantum to a live perspective (demote a monitoring one for the 8-cap).