Watchlist / livestock-disease

watchlist

Watchlist / livestock-disease

current roster plus event stream

symbols 20 events 270 latest

Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health supply-chain pick — ELAN (Elanco, named NWS-treatment supplier, the clean play), PAHC (Phibro, livestock-pure), NEOG (Neogen, biosecurity/diagnostics), ZTS (companion-heavy + cattle parasiticide tailwind, broken on own issues), IDXX (vet diagnostics, weak fit). (B) Beef-HURT — TSN/JBS (packers, short their cattle input), TXRH/WEN/BLMN/JACK (beef-heavy restaurants); MCD/CMG straddle. (C) Protein-ALTERNATIVE — HRL/SFD (pork, the working sub), PPC (poultry), CALM (eggs), WING (chicken), BYND (plant-based). (D) Cascade — DAR (rendering; fewer cattle = less feedstock, likely hurt). ALERT TRIGGER: a screwworm detection BEYOND the 20km infested zone = escalation → the dispersion (hurt-down/alt-up) that converts watch→trade. As of 2026-06-04 the rotation is NOT in the tape (complex sold off together); clean expression is up-chain at ELAN. Source: research/investigations/2026-06-04-beef-crisis-protein-rotation-complex-map.md.

Showing 120 of 270 events.

Cumulative return since Jul 16 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.
1D7D30D3M1Y
cohort -1.2%-0.4%-0.2%+6.5%-2.8%
SPY -0.5%-0.1%+4.0%+4.9%+21.4%
Δ -0.7%-0.3%-4.2%+1.7%-24.3%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 9/20 up

trend: 11 up · 0 flat · 9 down · avg RSI 49 · 40% above SMA200 · covered 20/20

contributors

BLMN+1.3pp+25.2%
NEOG+0.8pp+15.6%
JACK+0.7pp+14.2%
JBS+0.6pp+12.8%
WEN+0.6pp+11.1%

detractors

BYND-1.7pp-34.4%
WING-0.9pp-18.7%
SFD-0.6pp-11.1%
CALM-0.5pp-9.2%
ELAN-0.4pp-8.6%

Holdings

ELAN $23.61 -8.6% 30d coming into play PAHC $34.63 +4.0% 30d retreating NEOG $11.87 +15.6% 30d in trend ZTS $72.97 -4.7% 30d retreating IDXX $546.09 -3.8% 30d retreating TSN $58.61 +1.4% 30d coming into play JBS $13.44 +12.8% 30d coming into play TXRH $204.40 +3.7% 30d in trend WEN $8.62 +11.1% 30d coming into play BLMN $10.69 +25.2% 30d in trend JACK $17.10 +14.2% 30d coming into play MCD $265.53 -0.8% 30d coming into play CMG $33.76 -2.0% 30d retreating HRL $24.02 -5.4% 30d coming into play SFD $22.61 -11.1% 30d coming into play PPC $28.77 -1.2% 30d retreating CALM $80.44 -9.2% 30d coming into play WING $115.72 -18.7% 30d retreating BYND $11.63 -34.4% 30d retreating DAR $67.67 +7.2% 30d in trend
BLMN $10.69 +1.3% +25.2% +39.7% +45.0% 61 in trend -15.4%
NEOG $11.87 +1.9% +15.6% +38.7% +110.5% 66 in trend -7.6%
JACK $17.10 +0.4% +14.2% +58.6% -8.3% 54 coming into play -28.3%
JBS $13.44 -1.5% +12.8% +4.5% -5.5% 54 coming into play -22.2%
WEN $8.62 -0.2% +11.1% +11.9% -13.4% 62 coming into play -15.0%
DAR $67.67 +0.9% +7.2% +8.9% +94.3% 67 in trend -0.4%
PAHC $34.63 +0.8% +4.0% +1.7% +8.0% 51 retreating -42.1%
TXRH $204.40 -1.3% +3.7% +15.9% +17.2% 54 in trend -5.5%
TSN $58.61 +0.8% +1.4% -11.4% +5.3% 52 coming into play -14.9%
MCD $265.53 -2.7% -0.8% -5.4% -13.4% 42 coming into play -21.3%
PPC $28.77 +3.1% -1.2% +1.4% -37.7% 56 retreating -39.7%
CMG $33.76 +0.8% -2.0% +0.0% -22.6% 51 retreating -23.7%
IDXX $546.09 -0.9% -3.8% +0.1% -15.4% 42 retreating -29.1%
ZTS $72.97 -1.1% -4.7% -5.5% -52.5% 44 retreating -53.7%
HRL $24.02 -2.1% -5.4% +19.3% -13.6% 40 coming into play -13.9%
ELAN $23.61 -0.3% -8.6% +18.5% +31.8% 46 coming into play -15.6%
CALM $80.44 -0.8% -9.2% +3.6% -28.6% 38 coming into play -29.5%
SFD $22.61 -0.7% -11.1% -10.7% -8.5% 31 coming into play -22.1%
WING $115.72 -8.3% -18.7% -10.0% -64.9% 39 retreating -66.3%
BYND $11.63 -13.7% -34.4% -49.1% -84.2% 29 retreating -95.0%

Feed generated 2026-08-18.