Watchlist / livestock-disease

watchlist

Watchlist / livestock-disease

current roster plus event stream

symbols 20 events 400 latest

Livestock-disease / beef supply-shock — single consolidated watchlist + alert hub for the New World Screwworm → cattle-supply thesis (first US case 2026-06-03; US herd 75-yr low; record beef). ROLES: (A) Animal-health supply-chain pick — ELAN (Elanco, named NWS-treatment supplier, the clean play), PAHC (Phibro, livestock-pure), NEOG (Neogen, biosecurity/diagnostics), ZTS (companion-heavy + cattle parasiticide tailwind, broken on own issues), IDXX (vet diagnostics, weak fit). (B) Beef-HURT — TSN/JBS (packers, short their cattle input), TXRH/WEN/BLMN/JACK (beef-heavy restaurants); MCD/CMG straddle. (C) Protein-ALTERNATIVE — HRL/SFD (pork, the working sub), PPC (poultry), CALM (eggs), WING (chicken), BYND (plant-based). (D) Cascade — DAR (rendering; fewer cattle = less feedstock, likely hurt). ALERT TRIGGER: a screwworm detection BEYOND the 20km infested zone = escalation → the dispersion (hurt-down/alt-up) that converts watch→trade. As of 2026-06-04 the rotation is NOT in the tape (complex sold off together); clean expression is up-chain at ELAN. Source: research/investigations/2026-06-04-beef-crisis-protein-rotation-complex-map.md.

Showing 120 of 400 events.

Cumulative return since Sep 8 — both lines start at 0%, so the gap between them IS the out/under-performance. Hover for daily values.
1D7D30D3M1Y
cohort +0.4%+1.5%-6.0%-9.8%-9.6%
SPY +0.6%+1.2%+2.1%+3.1%+16.0%
Δ -0.2%+0.4%-8.2%-12.9%-25.6%

equal-weight · buy-and-hold from window start, no rebalancing · 3M+ windows are a current-roster backcast.

30D breadth 6/20 up

trend: 4 up · 0 flat · 16 down · avg RSI 44 · 15% above SMA200 · covered 20/20

contributors

WING+0.5pp+10.6%
PAHC+0.2pp+4.1%
TSN+0.2pp+3.3%
JBS+0.2pp+3.2%
ZTS+0.1pp+2.0%

detractors

BYND-1.5pp-29.4%
WEN-0.9pp-17.4%
JACK-0.7pp-14.1%
CMG-0.6pp-12.3%
CALM-0.6pp-12.1%

Holdings

ELAN $22.92 -2.7% 30d coming into play PAHC $38.30 +4.1% 30d retreating NEOG $11.85 -0.6% 30d coming into play ZTS $74.81 +2.0% 30d retreating IDXX $518.00 +0.6% 30d retreating TSN $53.43 +3.3% 30d coming into play JBS $12.98 +3.2% 30d retreating TXRH $161.50 -9.9% 30d coming into play WEN $6.23 -17.4% 30d retreating BLMN $8.60 -4.9% 30d coming into play JACK $12.70 -14.1% 30d retreating MCD $235.23 -7.2% 30d retreating CMG $31.59 -12.3% 30d coming into play HRL $19.19 -8.5% 30d retreating SFD $18.61 -9.3% 30d retreating PPC $28.65 -5.3% 30d retreating CALM $64.35 -12.1% 30d retreating WING $122.26 +10.6% 30d retreating BYND $7.70 -29.4% 30d retreating DAR $60.26 -10.7% 30d coming into play
WING $122.26 +3.2% +10.6% -20.2% -51.0% 65 retreating -59.6%
PAHC $38.30 +2.4% +4.1% +19.4% +3.0% 63 retreating -36.3%
TSN $53.43 +2.1% +3.3% -7.6% +3.6% 56 coming into play -23.1%
JBS $12.98 +1.8% +3.2% +9.0% +2.7% 62 retreating -30.4%
ZTS $74.81 +2.4% +2.0% -1.0% -47.8% 60 retreating -49.5%
IDXX $518.00 +0.9% +0.6% -8.1% -17.6% 47 retreating -32.7%
NEOG $11.85 +1.2% -0.6% +23.2% +74.8% 44 coming into play -16.9%
ELAN $22.92 +1.7% -2.7% -7.7% +14.2% 51 coming into play -18.1%
BLMN $8.60 +1.4% -4.9% +3.1% +14.7% 50 coming into play -31.9%
PPC $28.65 +0.5% -5.3% +1.4% -24.4% 51 retreating -36.1%
MCD $235.23 -0.7% -7.2% -14.3% -19.9% 37 retreating -31.2%
HRL $19.19 -1.2% -8.5% -22.4% -19.3% 25 retreating -27.9%
SFD $18.61 -1.4% -9.3% -24.6% -14.6% 30 retreating -37.6%
TXRH $161.50 -0.8% -9.9% -14.8% -3.7% 34 coming into play -25.3%
DAR $60.26 -3.2% -10.7% -0.9% +92.2% 42 coming into play -13.9%
CALM $64.35 -0.7% -12.1% -27.2% -29.7% 30 retreating -32.7%
CMG $31.59 -3.3% -12.3% -10.4% -22.7% 41 coming into play -26.2%
JACK $12.70 +2.0% -14.1% -14.7% -30.9% 37 retreating -46.8%
WEN $6.23 +0.2% -17.4% -17.5% -29.4% 34 retreating -38.4%
BYND $7.70 -0.4% -29.4% -60.9% -87.0% 27 retreating -96.7%

Feed generated 2026-10-10.