2026-03-13 - Market Status Report

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Regime: STAGFLATION DEEPENING -- BREADTH COLLAPSING. VOO $609.11 (RSI 34, -3.0% 30D) -- deteriorated further from $615 yesterday. VIXY $32.46 (RSI 60, +16.3% 30D) -- fear still elevated, no all-clear. GLD $460.85 (RSI 48, +2.8% 30D) -- safe haven pulling back but structural uptrend intact. TLT RSI 39 -- bonds still broken. EEM $58.68 (RSI 45, -4.7% 30D) -- fading on oil/dollar double pain. USO RSI 86, +58.3% 30D -- oil remains parabolic. Monster breadth collapsed 56% (153 to 67 names). SaaS massacre accelerating: TEAM -53.5% 3M, WDAY -39.4% 3M, ADBE -29% 3M. Zero golden signals for the FOURTH consecutive scan. SPY RSI 34 approaching oversold. TSLA broke below SMA200 -- critical structural test.


1. Market Weather

Indicator Level RSI 30D Chg Signal Note
VOO (S&P 500) $609.11 34 -3.0% DOWN Deteriorated from $615 yesterday. Approaching oversold territory.
SPY $662.36 34 -3.0% DOWN RSI 34, below SMA20/50. Slow grind accelerating.
QQQ $593.72 40 -1.3% OUTPERFORMING Still relatively stronger than VOO but fading.
VIXY (VIX) $32.46 60 +16.3% FEAR ELEVATED No all-clear. Fourth scan at elevated levels.
GLD (Gold) $460.85 48 +2.8% SAFE HAVEN Pulling back from highs but golden cross intact. +67% 1Y.
TLT (Bonds) ~$88 39 ~-2% BROKEN Bonds NOT rallying in risk-off. Stagflation signature.
EEM (Emerging) $58.68 45 -4.7% FADING Oil/dollar double pain for importers.
USO (Oil) 86 +58.3% PARABOLIC Iran/Hormuz crisis. Do NOT chase. Inflation driver.
XLF (Financials) $48.91 29 -5.4% CRACKING Financials breaking down faster than broad market.
ITB (Homebuilders) $93.19 22 -17.1% CAPITULATION Housing oversold deepest since 2022.

One-liner: Stagflation grind is accelerating. VOO RSI 34 (was 37) means broad market is sliding toward oversold but not there yet -- this is death by a thousand cuts, not a capitulation flush. ADBE crashed -7.7% in a single day (SaaS massacre). AVGO gave back -4.7%. Monster breadth collapsed 56% in one scan. Gold pulling back but structural uptrend intact. Life sciences cluster expanded to 5 names (MDT/DHR/TMO/A/SYK all RSI 22-27) as highest-conviction contrarian theme. Zero golden signals for 4th straight scan -- smart money still NOT buying.


2. Sector Heat Map

Overbought (Don't Chase)

Sector Ticker/ETF RSI 30D Chg Signal
Oil / Energy USO 86 +58.3% PARABOLIC -- do NOT chase. Iran/Hormuz.
Agriculture SOYB 78 Commodity inflation spreading.
Dollar UUP 73 +2.3% Strong-up. Amplifying EM/importer pain.
Defense LMT/NOC 45-56 +28-34% 3M War premium structural. Healthy consolidation.
Memory/Storage MU/WDC/STX 48-57 +55-91% 3M Most durable monster theme. Healthy RSI.

Oversold (Opportunity Zone)

Sector Ticker/ETF RSI 30D Chg Signal
Life Sciences Tools MDT/DHR/TMO/A/SYK 22-27 -7 to -13% CLUSTER CAPITULATION -- 5 names now. Highest conviction.
Homebuilders ITB/XHB 22-24 -15 to -17% Full capitulation. Needs oil reversal catalyst.
Financials XLF 29 -5.4% Cracking faster than SPY. Systemic risk watch.
Consumer Discretionary NKE/CMG/LULU 25-30 -8 to -16% Broad consumer pain. Trade-down in effect.
Home Improvement LOW/HD 25-29 -11 to -16% Joining housing capitulation.
Infrastructure Materials VMC/MLM 28-30 -10 to -18% AI data center pick-and-shovel. Overlooked.

Recovering / Neutral

Sector Status
Cloud/SaaS Structural repricing confirmed. 14 death crosses. NET lone exception. TEAM -54%, ADBE -29% 3M. Not a dip.
Big Tech MSFT $396 (RSI 56), GOOGL $302 (RSI 41), AMZN $208 (RSI 42). Holding but weakening.
Semis SMH RSI ~48. AVGO +2.7%. Neutral, gave back gains.
Biotech XBI RSI ~54. CRSP $48.75 (RSI 39). Gene editing without clear catalyst.

3. Top 5 Opportunities

Rank Ticker Price RSI Entry Zone Conviction Why
1 Life Sciences Cluster MDT $87/DHR $188/TMO $464/A $112/SYK $337 22-27 Various Strong Buy Five quality names simultaneously at historic oversold. Sector-wide de-rating, not structural impairment. Highest-conviction contrarian entry in market.
2 ITB/XHB $93/$101 22-24 $88-$95/$95-$105 Strong Buy (contrarian) Housing ETFs at deepest oversold since 2022. Needs oil reversal for catalyst but risk/reward compelling for patient capital.
3 NKE $53.98 25 $50-$54 Strong Buy -33% from high, death cross, but brand power intact. Capitulation territory. Tiny starter only.
4 VMC/MLM $265/$591 28-30 $258-$270/$580-$600 Strong Buy Infrastructure materials for AI data center construction. Overlooked oversold.
5 V/MA $307/$498 34 $300-$310/$490-$510 Watch Payment duopoly simultaneously at rare oversold. Death crosses present but franchise quality unquestionable.

Theme: life sciences cluster is expanding (not contracting), housing at historic oversold, and quality franchises being indiscriminately sold. Zero golden signals means patience -- accumulate slowly.


4. Top Risks

Stop-Loss Proximity (Paper Portfolios)

Stock Strategy Entry Stop Current Distance Status
LULU claude-trader $177.34 $150.74 (-15%) $157.78 4.5% above CRITICAL -- deepened from 5.9%. Only ~$7 from stop trigger.
ADBE claude-trader $269.39 $228.98 (-15%) $249.32 8.2% above Watch -- crashed -7.7% in one day. SaaS massacre.
CRSP claude-trader $51.31 $43.61 (-15%) $48.75 10.6% above Watch -- insider buying $28M provides floor.
ARKK yolo $74.36 $59.49 (-20%) $70.21 18.0% above Watch -- innovation in wrong regime.
CRSP yolo $51.31 $41.05 (-20%) $48.75 18.8% above Watch -- YOLO stop wider but narrowing.
LOW yolo $250.22 $200.18 (-20%) $237.64 18.7% above Watch -- housing capitulation deepening.

bench-signals Danger Zone

Stock Entry Current Unrealized Status
TMO $542.36 $464.38 -14.4% 0.7% from -15% stop. CRITICAL DANGER.
NKE $61.00 $53.98 -11.5% 3.4% from -15% stop. DANGER.
GIS $44.85 $39.78 -11.3% 3.5% from -15% stop. DANGER.
ESTC $59.00 $52.52 -11.0% 3.8% from -15% stop. DANGER.
LULU $177.00 $157.78 -10.9% 3.9% from -15% stop. DANGER.
AMD $216.25 $193.39 -10.6% 4.2% from -15% stop.
AS $36.00 $32.33 -10.2% 4.6% from -15% stop.

Real Portfolio Alerts

Stock Alert Status
AS (holdings) $30.71 stop AT STOP -- RSI 30, -19.7% 30D. EXIT DECISION REQUIRED.
MDT (holdings) $83 stop CRITICAL -- RSI 22, 3.6% from stop. Life sciences selloff.
NET (holdings) $185 stop (raised) STRONG -- +19.7%. Insider selling -$741.8M. Partial target $231.

5. Actions Log

Trades Executed 03/13

Strategy Trade Ticker Price Shares Value Rationale
claude-trader BUY SYK $336.71 7.42 $2,498 Life sciences cluster -- RSI 26.5 medtech capitulation. Replacing TMO exposure with medtech diversification.
claude-momentum BUY TMO $464.38 6.46 $3,000 RSI 24.4 extreme capitulation. Life sciences monopoly. Cluster trade with DHR+A+SYK.
claude-momentum BUY SYK $336.71 8.91 $3,000 RSI 26.5 medtech capitulation. Diversifies life sciences cluster.
yolo BUY SOXS $41.26 169.66 $7,000 FIRST LEVERAGED INVERSE PLAY. Semis in structural downtrend. VIXY > 50 regime rule.
bench-signals BUY SYK $336.71 2.97 $1,000 Medtech capitulation RSI 26.5. New signal #56.
bench-signals BUY A $111.94 8.93 $1,000 Lab instruments RSI 26.5. New signal #57.
bench-signals BUY XHB $100.87 9.91 $1,000 Homebuilder ETF RSI 24. New signal #58.
bench-signals BUY XLF $48.91 20.45 $1,000 Financials ETF RSI 29. New signal #59.

New Entry Zones Added 03/13 (vs 03/12)

Ticker RSI Entry Zone Change
SYK 27 $330-$340 NEW -- Medtech capitulation. Added to life sciences cluster.
AAPL 35 $240-$250 NEW -- Consumer tech bellwether approaching oversold.
META 36 $600-$615 NEW -- AI capex thesis approaching value territory.
CROX 37 $78-$82 NEW -- Death cross, -33% from high. Brand momentum uncertain.
ON 36 $55-$58 NEW -- Power semis weak, RSI 35.6.

Profit Target / Stop Events 03/13

Stock Strategy Status Notes
AMKR bench-signals +47.4% -- PAST +20% target Close as WIN next session.
TMO bench-signals -14.4% -- 0.7% from -15% stop CRITICAL. Next session stop candidate.

6. Portfolio Pulse

Leaderboard

Rank Strategy Return Value Cash Positions Trades Today Trend
1 claude-trader +1.58% $101,582 $52,384 (52%) 22 1 (BUY SYK) DOWN (was +2.21%)
2 bench-signals -1.0% open / -1.9% net ~$50,505 on $50K -- 50 open / 7 closed 4 (BUY SYK/A/XHB/XLF) DOWN (TMO at critical stop)
3 claude-momentum -0.57% $99,427 $65,371 (66%) 10 2 (BUY TMO/SYK) DOWN (was -0.20%)
4 yolo -2.41% $97,587 $34,649 (35%) 9 1 (BUY SOXS) DOWN (was -1.49%)

Overall narrative: All four strategies declined as the broad selloff deepened. Claude-trader slipped from +2.21% to +1.58% -- still the only positive strategy. ADBE crashed -7.7% in a single day, AVGO gave back -4.7%, and LULU deepened to -11.0% (CRITICAL at 4.5% above stop). Momentum went deeper negative as new life sciences cluster positions (TMO + SYK) entered at today's prices. YOLO added its first inverse leveraged play (SOXS) -- the "anti-trade" thesis in stagflation. Bench-signals has TMO at -14.4%, just 0.7% from the -15% stop -- likely next loss. AMKR at +47.4% needs to be closed as a WIN.


claude-trader Positions (22) -- $101,582 (+1.58%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
NFLX 24 $80.78 $94.64 +$333 +17.2% LEADER -- approaching +30% target ($105.01)
INTU 10 $389.98 $438.47 +$485 +12.4% Pulled back from +21.5%. Death cross monitor.
NOW 19 $102.63 $113.60 +$208 +10.7% Cloud resilience.
SNOW 12 $170.57 $178.62 +$97 +4.7% Approaching +30% target area.
ORCL 13 $152.95 $159.93 +$91 +4.6% Earnings validated.
AVGO 9 $313.78 $322.16 +$75 +2.7% Gave back from +7.8%. AI ASIC thesis intact.
MSFT 5 $390.00 $395.55 +$28 +1.4% Steady.
WCLD 70 $27.88 $28.28 +$28 +1.4% Cloud ETF baseline.
SYK 7.42 $336.71 $336.71 $0 0.0% NEW TODAY -- life sciences cluster.
GLD 4 $470.67 $460.85 -$39 -2.1% Gold pulling back.
CRM 10 $193.75 $192.80 -$10 -0.5% Flat.
ISRG 4 $476.32 $472.16 -$17 -0.9% Approaching entry zone.
IGV 25 $85.02 $84.19 -$21 -1.0% Cloud ETF.
GOOGL 6 $305.72 $302.28 -$21 -1.1% Death cross formed.
AMZN 9 $210.10 $207.67 -$22 -1.2% Near flat. Death cross.
WDAY 21 $138.57 $136.05 -$53 -1.8% SaaS risk.
LOW 10 $246.81 $237.64 -$92 -3.7% Housing weakness.
DHR 12 $195.22 $187.98 -$87 -3.7% Life sciences cluster.
CLX 22 $115.50 $110.83 -$103 -4.0% Consumer staples.
CRSP 40 $51.31 $48.75 -$102 -5.0% Gene editing. Insider buying $28M.
ADBE 7 $269.39 $249.32 -$141 -7.5% SaaS massacre -- crashed -7.7% in one day.
LULU 11 $177.34 $157.78 -$215 -11.0% CRITICAL -- 4.5% above stop ($150.74).

claude-momentum Positions (10) -- $99,427 (-0.57%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
SNOW 19 $156.71 $178.62 +$416 +14.0% CLOSEST TO +20% TARGET ($188.05) -- 5.3% away
AMZN 10 $198.79 $207.67 +$89 +4.5% Death cross watch.
AVGO 15 $313.84 $322.16 +$125 +2.7% Gave back from +7.8%.
IGV 35 $82.77 $84.19 +$50 +1.7% Cloud ETF.
SYK 8.91 $336.71 $336.71 $0 0.0% NEW TODAY.
TMO 6.46 $464.38 $464.38 $0 0.0% NEW TODAY -- life sciences monopoly.
DHR 17 $187.98 $187.98 $0 0.0% Life sciences cluster.
A 26 $111.94 $111.94 $0 0.0% Lab instruments cluster.
WDAY 36 $138.57 $136.05 -$91 -1.8% SaaS risk. 8.3% above -10% stop.
LOW 16 $246.81 $237.64 -$147 -3.7% Housing weakness. 6.5% above stop.

yolo Positions (9) -- $97,587 (-2.41%)

Stock Shares Entry Current P&L % Status
ORCL 50 $152.95 $159.93 +$349 +4.6% BEST -- earnings gap validated.
AVGO 32 $313.78 $322.16 +$268 +2.7% Gave back from +7.8%. AI ASIC.
SOXS 169.66 $41.26 $41.26 $0 0.0% NEW -- inverse semi leverage.
GDX 60 $99.64 $99.64 $0 0.0% Gold miners catch-up.
GLD 17 $470.67 $460.85 -$167 -2.1% Gold pulling back.
TQQQ 100 $48.78 $47.35 -$143 -2.9% Leveraged tech.
CRSP 100 $51.31 $48.75 -$256 -5.0% 18.8% above -20% stop.
LOW 40 $250.22 $237.64 -$503 -5.0% Housing capitulation.
ARKK 67 $74.36 $70.21 -$278 -5.6% 18.0% above -20% stop. Watch.

bench-signals Top Movers (50 open signals, 7 closed)

Top Winners P&L Top Losers P&L
AMKR +47.4% TMO -14.4%
LEGN +12.9% NKE -11.5%
CEG +11.3% GIS -11.3%
PYPL +11.0% ESTC -11.0%
DDOG +9.1% LULU -10.9%

New signals today: SYK (RSI 27, medtech), A (RSI 27, lab instruments), XHB (RSI 24, homebuilders), XLF (RSI 29, financials). Pending closes: AMKR +47.4% -- close as WIN next session. TMO -14.4% -- 0.7% from -15% stop, likely next loss. Closed record: 1W / 6L. Realized: -$971 net (+$202 wins, -$1,173 losses). Danger zone: TMO -14.4% (CRITICAL), NKE -11.5%, GIS -11.3%, ESTC -11.0%, LULU -10.9%, AMD -10.6%, AS -10.2% -- 7 signals within 5% of -15% stop.


7. Key Numbers

Metric Value Context
Most Oversold (quality) MDT RSI 22 Deepest oversold in life sciences cluster. Dividend aristocrat.
Life Sciences Cluster MDT 22 / DHR 24 / TMO 24 / A 27 / SYK 27 FIVE names now. Expanding, not contracting. Highest conviction.
Golden Signals ZERO Fourth consecutive scan. Smart money NOT buying.
Most Overbought USO RSI 86 Oil parabolic +58.3% 30D. Do NOT chase.
Gold $460.85 (RSI 48) Pulling back but +67% 1Y structural uptrend. Golden cross intact.
VIXY $32.46 (RSI 60) Fear elevated. No all-clear.
VOO $609.11 (RSI 34) Deteriorating further. Approaching oversold.
SPY 30D -3.0% Accelerating decline from -1.8% yesterday.
XLF $48.91 (RSI 29) Financials cracking -- systemic risk watch.
Monster Breadth 67 (was 153) -56% collapse in one scan. Market narrowing sharply.
Insider Posture 49 selling, 3 buying Only TSLA, CRSP, ASAN with net buying.
Entry Zones Active 21 oversold + 17 approaching 38 total. Broad capitulation across sectors.
TSLA vs SMA200 $391.20 vs $393.45 BELOW SMA200. Golden cross at risk.
Signals (bench) 57 total (50 open, 7 closed) 1W/6L. AMKR +47.4% pending close as WIN.
Best Strategy claude-trader +1.58% Still leader but declining.
NFLX (trader) +17.2% Leading position. Approaching +30% target.
SNOW (momentum) +14.0% 5.3% from +20% target ($188.05). Next profit exit.
LULU (trader) -11.0% #1 risk. 4.5% above stop. CRITICAL.
Stagflation Signal USO +58.3% + TLT 39 + ITB 22 Oil parabolic, bonds broken, housing destroyed.

8. What Changed (03/13 vs 03/12)

  • All four strategies declined further as selloff broadened. Claude-trader fell from +2.21% to +1.58%, momentum from -0.20% to -0.57%, YOLO from -1.49% to -2.41%. The broad market grind lower is eating into every portfolio. ADBE crashed -7.7% in one day (SaaS massacre accelerating), AVGO gave back -4.7%, META dropped -6.4%. Even defensive plays weakened -- GLD pulled back -2.1% from entry.

  • LULU is now CRITICAL at 4.5% above stop. Deepened from -9.7% to -11.0% ($157.78). Only ~$7 from the $150.74 stop trigger. Death cross, RSI 30, -55% from ATH. If it falls another $7, the stop fires. This is the highest-risk position in the entire system.

  • Life sciences cluster expanded to 5 names and became the dominant buying theme. Claude-trader added SYK ($2,498), momentum added TMO + SYK ($6,000 total). The cluster (MDT RSI 22, DHR RSI 24, TMO RSI 24, A RSI 27, SYK RSI 27) is the highest-conviction contrarian entry -- momentum now has 40% of invested capital in life sciences (DHR + A + TMO + SYK = $12K). This is a concentrated bet on the sector-wide de-rating being cyclical, not structural.

  • YOLO went inverse for the first time. Bought SOXS ($7,000) -- inverse semi ETF at $41.26. Semis in structural downtrend (SOXL -16% below SMA20). Combined with TQQQ (long tech), the portfolio has partially offsetting leveraged positions. Leveraged exposure now 12% of portfolio. This is the "anti-trade IS the trade" thesis in stagflation.

  • Monster breadth collapsed 56% (153 to 67 names). Sharpest single-day culling yet. Photonics cluster gutted, gold miners purged, chemicals dropped. Only memory (MU +91%, WDC +84%), AI infrastructure (VRT +65%, FIX +43%), and oil/energy survived. Market is narrowing to a handful of themes.

  • TMO in bench-signals is 0.7% from -15% stop -- next loss imminent. At $464.38 vs $542.36 entry (-14.4%), TMO is the closest signal to triggering a stop. Meanwhile, AMKR at +47.4% ($28 to $41.27) needs to be closed as WIN -- well past the +20% target. Seven signals total in the danger zone (-10% to -14.4%).

  • SPY RSI 34 and VOO RSI 34 -- broad market approaching oversold. Was RSI 37 yesterday. The slow grind is becoming a faster slide. Still NOT at capitulation levels (RSI < 30) but getting there. Everything is weaker than 24 hours ago. Zero golden signals for the 4th straight scan means smart money is still sitting out.


Sources

Generated 2026-03-13 from pre-computed summaries, portfolio files, actions, and scan data. Previous status: the March 12 daily status.

Price truth: validated daily summaries (summaries).