A pullback that holds above the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close) while RSI cools below 55, then a settled close above $300.40, the October 6 close on the Google agreement

Invalidation: A settled close below the 200-day average ($286.14 at the Oct 9 close), or a third-quarter report (expected around Nov 9, provider date) that does not confirm the Google agreement's terms

reclaim the 20-day (~$256) with hyperscaler spending language intact on the Jul 29–30 prints

Invalidation: capex language softens and the July shelf breaks — then the contracted-electrons bid is repricing too

held the AI unwind at −5%; reclaim the 20-day (~$1,085) and print a higher low

Invalidation: loses the July low — the complement bid was narrower than the month suggested

first higher low after a clean Jul 29–30 capex read — the −18% month is a beta markdown, and the entry is print-gated, not chart-gated

Invalidation: lower lows after capex language holds firm — then the fuel-cycle derate is regime, not beta

Friday printed a reversal bar (low $804, closed $848.95); a close above that bar's high ($903.93) confirms it — the trend-hold entry itself still needs the base and a 20-day reclaim ($1,023)

Invalidation: a close below Friday's low ($804) voids the reversal; the knife is still falling

the general never broke (−3.7% in 30 days vs the ETF's −15.7%); a reclaim of its 50-day ($209.81) is the complex-repair signal — the leader turns first

Invalidation: a close below the $186.48 volume shelf means the general finally fell and the whole complex read resets bearish

the complex switch: first close back above the 50-day ($597.33) after a higher low, confirmed through the 20-day ($610.93); until then every bounce is a bounce inside a downtrend

Invalidation: a close below Friday's low ($536.81) means the bounce attempt failed and the next leg down is open

the complex's only accumulation-shaped bar: +5.7% on 1.35× volume, closed near the high after touching $700.39; above Friday's high ($808.65) with the July 28 print ahead, the bounce has legs

Invalidation: a close below $700.39 means Friday was a dead-cat, not a turn

reclaim the pre-registered $270 line and hold it — the trigger the thesis flag broke this week, now the recovery tell

Invalidation: lower lows continue below $270 after the prints — then the derate is regime, not scare

gated on the prints, not the chart — a storage/memory print (STX Jul 28, WDC Jul 29, SNDK Aug 5) showing DRAM/NAND pricing intact, plus a first higher low

Invalidation: a print that shows pricing momentum actually rolling — then the derate was early, not wrong

the R1 playbook leg — hold the 20-day retest (~$202) through the July 28–29 storage prints, then a higher low; the efficiency-scare component tends to mean-revert if the fundamentals hold

Invalidation: the retest fails and the pullback becomes a breakdown below the July shelf, or hyperscaler capex language actually softens on the July 29–30 prints

the quality expression of the rotation — already back above all three moving averages with RSI under 60 and half a billion of operating cash flow; buyable at structure, add on strength over the 20-day (~$338 now support)

Invalidation: a finish under the 50-day (~$320) puts it back in the broken cohort; under the one-year VWAP (~$310) the rotation call was early

the rotation's confirming leader — but RSI 78 and 3% off its high is chasing; reopen on the first orderly pullback that holds the 50-day

Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is a timing pass, not a thesis pass

the earnings proof-point of the rotation (beat + raised subscription guide) but still in a downtrend, 43% off its high — watch for a base; this is a lane signal, not yet an entry

Invalidation: the bounce fades below the June low with the lane's 7-day breadth rolling back under 50%