AI power: generation and grid equipment · Campaigns
AI power: generation and grid equipment
active · AI · Power · Energy
Notebook
Working notes, questions and changes. Rough material stays unverified until reviewed.
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Microturbine-cogen sub-thesis: CGEH as binary-outcome data-center-power play vs BE/SOFC
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DGXX/Cerebras 40MW colo verified — Cerebras enters the perspective as private-but-watch counterparty
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HWM "Gas Turbines" line item restated 3 years deep — FY25 +25% YoY confirms acceleration
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HWM Q1 2026 10-Q: Gas Turbines accelerates to +39% YoY — bear-tell tracker first quarterly read, thesis hardens
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Upstream metallurgy layer: HWM (blades) + ATI (alloy) sit above GEV in the gas-turbine stack
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Cambrian Thesis (Lonis Hamaili) ratifies generation-side bull + surfaces IPP gap in key_tickers
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Conversion to event-sourced format
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Crusoe / Lochmiller validates generation-side bull (GE Vernova + onsite gas turbines + depreciation)
Changes to the case
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review) (pending GE Vernova Q3; no review record)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-10-06 · EOD 2026-10-06 campaign checkpoint (book-blind Opus review)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-17 · EOD 2026-09-17 campaign checkpoint: a named hyperscaler backup-power supply agreement, checked against the campaign's written early-review triggers (not met)
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-11 · Interconnection leg answered as queue position; next test is the October order-conversion release with ERCOT's December 10 determination behind it
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-11 · Constellation's equity raise is the session's sourced generation-leg financing event
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-11 · Oracle's Q1 FY27 10-Q supplies filed power-supply obligations and no energised-megawatt disclosure
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-08 · EOD 2026-09-08: interconnection-decision condition fired (IREN conditional ERCOT, 2GW); review pulled from 2026-10-06 to the 2026-09-11 EOW pass.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-08 · EOD 2026-09-08 campaign checkpoint: interconnection-decision trigger condition met; linking the evidence and pulling the review forward.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Preserve the earlier review as dated context, not a fresh classification.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Attach the scope decision and evidence boundaries without promoting a working note to primary evidence.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Interpret the dated primary source within this campaign’s reviewed scope.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Interpret the dated primary source within this campaign’s reviewed scope.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Interpret the dated primary source within this campaign’s reviewed scope.
Before: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings.
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active
2026-09-06 · Keep the evidenced upstream electricity claim; remove cloud hosts and downstream sockets from its curated instruments.
Before: No prior claim
After: AI electricity demand will sustain generation and grid-equipment orders as supply expands slowly; contracted demand must convert into deliveries and supplier earnings. · active