Type: thesis-shift (subtype: hardens — evidence-update)

event_id: 2026-05-10-hwm-fy25-10k-gas-turbines-disaggregation-restated-three-years

Source: Howmet Aerospace FY2025 Form 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (SEC EDGAR accession 0000004281-26-000012, hwm-20251231.htm)

Shift: The Q4 2025 disclosure-scheme change (combining industrial gas turbines + oil & gas into a single "Gas Turbines" end-market line) was anticipated as a loss of color — we expected the FY2024 comparable in the new 10-K might carry the old "Industrial and Other" lump. Instead HWM restated all three years (2023/2024/2025) under the new scheme, giving us one clean data set we did not expect to get. The disaggregation is by segment AND by end market in Item 8 Note ("end-market revenue" table), with Gas Turbines living 100% inside Engine Products (no other segment sells into gas turbines):

Gas Turbines accelerated from +12.0% to +25.0% YoY — the only end-market on HWM's table accelerating into 2025. Aerospace-Commercial decelerated (+19.9% → +11.7%). Defense aerospace accelerated (+14.7% → +21.0%). Gas Turbines is now 11.4% of total revenue (vs 10.2% FY24, 10.1% FY23) — modest mix shift but the only line punching above weight on growth rate. The data-center-IGT thesis has its first hard datapoint: the acceleration the narrative predicted is showing up in the numbers HWM discloses.

Effect on thesis:

• HWM key_ticker reaffirmed at higher conviction — the line item we hypothesized would inflect IS inflecting, exactly the direction and magnitude the picks-and-shovels thesis predicted. Engine Products segment 16% top-line growth in 2025 is partly Gas Turbines doing $189M of incremental revenue (vs +$80M YoY in 2024), so the IGT line is now contributing ~30% of Engine Products' YoY dollar growth despite being 22% of segment revenue. Mix is shifting into the higher-acceleration line.
• No re-grade of ATI — ATI is one layer up (alloy feedstock) and disclosure-wise we still have no direct IGT-vs-aero split for ATI revenue. Inference: if HWM Engine Products IGT is accelerating to +25%, ATI (which feeds HWM blades + competing casters) likely sees similar pull-through, but quantifying that requires ATI's own segment disclosures.
• The bear-tell tracker is now operational. The standing process (TASKS.md:432) gets its baseline: Gas Turbines FY25 = $944M, +25.0% YoY. What to watch: the next inflection point. HWM 10-Q segment-level disclosure historically does NOT break out end-market revenue (only segment-level totals), so the next quarterly end-market read may not come until Q4 2026 / FY2026 10-K — UNLESS HWM continues mid-year disclosure in 10-Qs given the new scheme attention. Need to check Q1 2026 10-Q (expected ~early May 2026) to confirm whether end-market lines are now quarterly-disclosed.
• Cross-check on customer concentration: RTX and GE Aerospace each ~11% of total HWM sales (FY25), both primarily Engine Products. Note: GE Aerospace + GE Vernova split into separate entities in 2024; the 11% disclosure is GE Aerospace, NOT GEV. GEV (the IGT customer) is therefore embedded within "Gas Turbines" revenue but is NOT one of the named 10%+ customers — implying Gas Turbines revenue is diversified across GEV, Siemens Energy, MHI, and possibly smaller OEMs rather than concentrated in any single customer. This reduces single-customer risk on the IGT line.
• Open question (filed as TASKS.md): Does HWM begin quarterly end-market disclosure in 2026 10-Qs? If yes, the bear-tell tracker becomes a 4x-per-year cadence. If no, we wait on annual 10-Ks plus any conference/IR commentary on the IGT line.

Per-ticker: HWM reaffirmed (Gas Turbines +25% YoY is the data-point version of the narrative). ATI → (no direct disclosure change). GEV → (named indirectly — GEV is the implied IGT customer driving HWM's Gas Turbines acceleration; no GEV-side numbers in HWM's 10-K).