Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: A completed IPO case tests allocation funding, peer multiple changes and a sector halo as separate hypotheses. Its retrospective must not be replaced with a different issuer's prospective listing.

Why now

Close the historical event case as ungraded, not successful or disproven. Preserve its original identity and recovery questions; do not relabel it as another issuer.

In scope

A completed IPO case tests allocation funding, peer multiple changes and a sector halo as separate hypotheses. Its retrospective must not be replaced with a different issuer's prospective listing.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

Original issuance event window only; no rolling extension.

What supports it

Require filed lockup/index terms and the original event-window outcomes. A new issuer's S-1 is a separate case; old unobserved windows cannot be reconstructed as contemporaneous predictions.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · Recover original filed terms and contemporaneous event-window observations for a retrospective only.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Close the historical event case as ungraded, not successful or disproven. Preserve its original identity and recovery questions; do not relabel it as another issuer.

Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The cross-issuer lens tests allocation flows, free float, lockups, index entry and disclosed AI demand. Separate issuance events may have different liquidity effects.

Why now

Retire the generic issuance lens as a standing campaign until a filed event creates a dated decision. Keep the SpaceX retrospective distinct rather than manufacturing a larger live replacement.

In scope

The cross-issuer lens tests allocation flows, free float, lockups, index entry and disclosed AI demand. Separate issuance events may have different liquidity effects.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

Issuer-specific event windows only; no standing undated campaign.

What supports it

Require an actual filed S-1 and reconciled lockup/passive-demand calendar per issuer. Rumored calendars and unobserved past gates remain gaps, not completed event evidence.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · An actual filing with reconciled float, lockup and index dates, plus a measurable funding-flow hypothesis, would justify a new event campaign.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Retire the generic issuance lens as a standing campaign until a filed event creates a dated decision. Keep the SpaceX retrospective distinct rather than manufacturing a larger live replacement.