Historical hypothesis, now retired from live research: The historical scenario links a Qatar helium/LNG outage to inventory depletion and fabrication risk; the supply premise and equity transmission are separate hypotheses.

Why now

Energy-flow context retained; retire the unsupported helium cascade as a live campaign.

In scope

The historical scenario links a Qatar helium/LNG outage to inventory depletion and fabrication risk; the supply premise and equity transmission are separate hypotheses.

Out of scope

No current campaign-level investment recommendation · No reconstruction of past returns or reassignment of original calls

Expected horizon

Weeks to months after a verified outage; no live window is authorized.

What supports it

Require current QatarEnergy restart/outage evidence or fab allocation/helium-price evidence; sourcing substitution and restart undermine the depletion path. A standing maritime advisory does not verify lost supply.

What would break it

The closure is a research-priority decision, not a new market falsification verdict. Original evidence gaps and outcomes remain as recorded.

Next review On condition · Direct Qatar operator evidence plus measured helium allocation or fabrication impact would justify a new, narrowly scoped successor.

Closed 2026-09-06 · Energy-flow context retained; retire the unsupported helium cascade as a live campaign.