Historical extreme oil-price scenario, previously retired. Its old numerical target is not renewed.

Why now

Review archival scope only. Preserve the existing closure date, reason, history and calls; do not reconstruct unreviewed historical thesis details.

In scope

Identity, topic and existing closed disposition

Out of scope

Fresh thesis validation · Reopening or regrading historical calls

Expected horizon

Historical window; exact original timing remains in the archive and is not re-established by this review.

What supports it

No fresh supporting-evidence verdict; original source history is preserved.

What would break it

No live claim to invalidate; a new case requires fresh evidence and its own failure tests.

Next review On condition · No standing review. A user-requested historical audit or a new evidence-backed successor is required.

Closed 2026-05-30 · R32-D (2026-05-29 EOW synthesis) KILL decision. The named $200 binary trigger ('Asian floating inventory <30M bbl + USO sustained >$130 + OPEC emergency') never fully fired; the lone leg that fired in R12 (USO >$130, $149 on the 2026-05-18 tape) has since un-fired — USO back to $129.09 (-12.2% 30D, falling), VXX $24.14 (RSI 28, below the $25 re-arm), CF/NTR weak-down (cascade not transmitting). The R12 'shock vs premium' verification that extended relevance_until to 2026-07-01 now resolves: the oil move was a war/Gulf risk premium now deflating, NOT a $200-path supply shock. Residual war-shock tail risk is covered by parent us-energy-dominance watch-for #1 (USO <$110 = fold structural pieces). No active sub-thesis survives independently. Reopen trigger: USO >$130 sustained 5+ days AND a fresh confirmed escalation catalyst (Hormuz physical shutdown / OPEC emergency). See research/perspectives/2026-05-03-oil-200-scenario/log.md 2026-05-30 R32-D entry.