Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation) · Campaigns
Physical AI / Robotics — Arms-Dealers Over Moonshots (the Embodied-AI Rotation)
closed · AI · Robotics
Ideas and calls
Long, bearish, hedge and relative-value ideas can coexist. Only explicitly issued calls enter the existing scoreboard; short and hedge performance is not graded.
Issued calls · returns compare the symbol with SPY after 30 and 90 days. Positive excess supports a BUY; negative excess supports TRIM or SELL. WAIT and research ideas have no score. These are call outcomes, not a campaign return.
reopen only if it bases above its 200-day (~$42.55) for a full quarter AND revenue inflects — a collapsed 25x parabolic with sub-$100M revenue and operating losses is a lottery aftermath, not a trend
Invalidation: n/a — not owned; the pass is wrong if the substrate cycle produces a durable base and profitability
the steady one — EPS tripled over three quarters on a wire-flagged margin inflection and the tape barely flinched; buy the 20-day reclaim (~$66)
Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$49) — the machine-vision recovery thesis is dead there
elite fundamentals (33% operating margin on $1.34B FY26 revenue) with the least-damaged tape in the sweep — already flagging under its 20-day; buy the reclaim (~$255.50)
Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$160) — until then pullbacks are digestion in an intact uptrend
the fundamentals are the best in the sweep (net income nearly quadrupled in two quarters) but the tape trades below its 200-day — watch for the reclaim of the ~$55.60 cluster (50-day, 200-day, one-year VWAP)
Invalidation: gas strip rolling over while price stays below the 200-day through the October print
the sleeper — record Q1, raised full-year guidance to include the Distributed Power acquisition, and a 300–500MW/yr power-generation growth outlook through 2030; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$70)
Invalidation: a finish under $57.50 (top of the prior value area) says the datacenter-power re-rate failed
defense photonics inflected to GAAP profit on +55% revenue with record defense product sales — buy the reclaim of $65.50 (the one-year point of control)
Invalidation: a finish under the ~$51 cluster (200-day and one-year VWAP), or defense revenue momentum stalling at the next print
wire-flagged inflection but already a 4.5x over the year and −16% this week on no news we can find — needs the flag to hold; interest returns above the 20-day (~$91)
Invalidation: a finish under the one-year VWAP (~$50.66) unwinds the entire re-rate
the −21% week has no company event behind it — Q1 revenue rose 87% with a 21% EPS beat and the wire flagged the margin inflection; buy the 50-day reclaim (~$383), with the July 28 print as the catalyst
Invalidation: a finish under the 200-day (~$270), or the July 28 print showing the 'lumpy, concentrated among large customers' risk arriving early