Space

Update

Space

Want SpaceX exposure. RKLB consolidating at $78. ARKX is still a trap.

Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 Watch - RKLB flat over 30D, consolidating after volatility
Key insight RKLB $78.57 = same as 30D ago. Defense contract win offset Neutron test failure. Net neutral.

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 WATCH RKLB RSI 43, consolidating, defense contract positive but Neutron risk
❌ DON'T BUY ARKX RSI 33, misleading ETF - has NO SpaceX exposure

Legend

  • RSI ↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
  • RSI ↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
  • 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)

Data (Validated 2026-02-05, RKLB data as of 02/03, ARKX as of 02/02)

Stock Price 7D 30D 3M 52wkHi RSI Status Action
RKLB $78.57 -0.5% +0.6% +28.0% -21.0% 43 🟡 Consolidating 🔍 Watch
ARKX $31.67 -1.0% +0.7% +2.0% -11.0% 33 🟡 Weakening ❌ Don't Buy

Note: RKLB data from 02/03, ARKX from 02/02. May have moved. Verify before acting.

News Summary

RKLB - Rocket Lab

Date Headline Sentiment
2026-02-02 Largest contract ever - 18 missile-defense satellites 🟢 Bullish
2026-01-29 Stock could explode in 2026 - 38% YTD gain 🟢 Bullish
2026-01-28 Congress killed Mars sample-return funding 🔴 Bearish
2026-01-27 Neutron test failure - stock dropped 20% 🔴 Bearish
2026-01-30 Analyst target $72.9 - mixed outlook 🟡 Neutral

Net sentiment: Mixed - big contract win offset by test failure. Stock went sideways as a result.

ARKX - ARK Space ETF

  • RSI dropped from 33 to 33 (weakening)
  • Still has NO SpaceX (that's in ARKVX venture fund)
  • Renamed to "ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF"
  • ARKX position bought at $32.40 on 01/07 = now DOWN -2.3% ($31.67)

Analysis

RKLB - Rocket Lab

Thesis: Public rocket company. Real SpaceX competitor. Actually builds rockets.

Metric Value Change from 02/01
Price $78.57 Was $78.57 (unchanged)
RSI 43 Was 43 (same)
30D +0.6% Was +1% (similar)
  • Price literally unchanged from 02/01 report
  • Market digesting mixed signals: defense win vs Neutron failure
  • 18-satellite defense contract = huge revenue visibility
  • Neutron test failure = technical risk remains
  • RSI 43 = neutral territory, not overbought or oversold
  • Waiting for clearer direction before entry

Verdict: 🔍 Watch - need Neutron progress update before committing

ARKX - ARK Space ETF (AVOID)

Thesis: Space ETF... but has NO SpaceX.

Metric Value
Price $31.67
RSI 33 (weakening)
30D +0.7%
Entry (01/07) $32.40
P&L -2.3%
  • Position bought at $32.40 on 01/07 is now losing money
  • Still has NO SpaceX exposure (that's ARKVX venture fund)
  • Top holdings are Trimble, Kratos, Iridium
  • RSI weakening to 33, approaching oversold
  • This is NOT the space play we wanted

Verdict: ❌ Consider selling ARKX position at small loss vs holding a misleading ETF

The Gold

Key Discoveries

Discovery Implication
RKLB flat for 4 days Market in "wait and see" mode after mixed news
ARKX position losing money Bought at $32.40, now $31.67 = -2.3%
Defense contracts = revenue stability RKLB pivoting from pure launch to satellite manufacturing
Neutron still a question mark Need to track development progress closely

Mistakes

Mistake Lesson
Bought ARKX without checking holdings Always verify ETF composition
ARKX down -2.3% Small loss, but wrong thesis entirely

Open Questions

  • Is RKLB Neutron failure a one-time issue or systemic?
  • Should I sell ARKX at -2.3% loss?
  • Is $65-70 a good RKLB entry after pullback?
  • Will defense contracts offset commercial rocket challenges?

Next Actions

  • Decide: sell ARKX position (wrong thesis) or hold
  • Set RKLB alert at $65 for entry
  • Monitor Neutron rocket development progress
  • Track RKLB defense contract execution
  • Refresh space data (4 days stale for RKLB)

Commands

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10 events
DateTypeEvent
Feb 1 UpdatePortfolio - Main Snapshot Feb 1 UpdateSpace Mar 11 UpdateSpace Mar 12 UpdateSpace Mar 13 UpdateSpace Mar 20 UpdateSpace Mar 24 UpdateSpace Candidates Mar 26 UpdateSpace Candidates Mar 31 UpdateSpace Candidates Apr 3 UpdateSpace Candidates

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