Price Data
| Stock |
Price |
1D |
7D |
30D |
3M |
52wkHi |
RSI |
Status |
Action |
| NVDA |
$185.57 |
-5.1% |
+0.3% |
-0.5% |
— |
-5.1% |
63 |
🟡 Consolidating |
🔒 Hold |
OHLC data as of Feb 26. Post-earnings pullback: -5.1% today after Q4 beat. RSI 63.3 — healthy, not overbought.
Short Interest
| Date |
Short Interest |
Days to Cover |
Avg Daily Volume |
Trend |
| 2026-02-13 |
254.3M shares |
1.4 |
181.8M |
Declining (shorts covering) |
| 2026-01-30 |
257.1M shares |
1.6 |
164.1M |
|
| 2026-01-15 |
261.8M shares |
1.6 |
161.0M |
|
Short interest declining from 262M to 254M over past month. Days to cover < 2 = low squeeze risk but also low bearish conviction.
Legend
- RSI
↓ = Oversold (<30) - potential buying opportunity
- RSI
↑ = Overbought (>70) - FOMO warning, may pullback
- 52wkHi = % from 52-week high (how far below peak)
Company Overview
One-Liner
NVIDIA designs GPUs and data center-scale AI infrastructure that powers the majority of the world's AI training and inference workloads.
Business Model
| Question |
Answer |
| What they sell |
GPUs, CPUs, DPUs, networking (NVLink/InfiniBand), full-rack AI systems (Blackwell, Grace), CUDA software platform |
| Who pays |
Hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP), AI model makers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta), enterprises, sovereign AI initiatives |
| Revenue model |
Hardware sales (chips + systems), software licensing (NVIDIA AI Enterprise, vGPU), development services |
| How sticky |
Extremely sticky — CUDA ecosystem has 7.5M+ developers, massive switching costs. Entire AI software stack built on NVIDIA's platform. |
Key Segments
| Segment |
Revenue % |
Growth |
Notes |
| Data Center |
~91% |
+73% YoY (Q4) |
AI training + inference, Blackwell ramping, $62.3B in Q4 |
| Gaming |
~6% |
+30% YoY |
GeForce RTX 50 series launched, neural graphics |
| Professional Visualization |
~1% |
+56% YoY |
RTX PRO GPUs for AI workstation use cases |
| Automotive |
~1% |
+32% YoY |
DRIVE Hyperion platform, autonomous vehicles |
Geographic Mix
| Region |
Revenue % |
Notes |
| US |
~50% |
Primary hyperscaler customers |
| International |
~50% |
Effectively foreclosed from China data center market due to export controls |
Business Description (from 10-K, filed 2026-02-25)
NVIDIA describes itself as a "data center scale AI infrastructure company reshaping all industries." The technology stack includes the foundational CUDA development platform, hundreds of domain-specific software libraries, and vertical optimizations across healthcare, telecom, automotive, and manufacturing. The Blackwell architecture features extreme co-design where chips, networking, systems, software, and algorithms are holistically architected for maximum performance at scale. Hundreds of thousands of GPUs can be interconnected to function as a single giant computer.
Competitive Analysis
Industry Position
| Question |
Answer |
| Market share |
~80%+ of AI accelerator market |
| Market size (TAM) |
$500B+ AI infrastructure (growing rapidly) |
| Growth rate |
30-40% CAGR through 2030 |
| Key competitors |
AMD (MI300/Helios), Broadcom (custom ASICs), Intel (Gaudi), Google (TPUs), Amazon (Trainium) |
| Position |
Dominant leader |
Competitive Moat
| Moat Type |
Present? |
Evidence |
| Network effects |
🟢 |
7.5M+ CUDA developers, massive software ecosystem creates virtuous cycle |
| Switching costs |
🟢 |
Entire AI stack (PyTorch, TensorFlow, JAX) optimized for CUDA. Rewriting for alternatives costs millions in engineering time. |
| Cost advantages |
🟢 |
Best performance per watt — Blackwell delivers 4x inference throughput vs Hopper at same power |
| Intangible assets |
🟢 |
10,000+ patents, CUDA platform (18 years of optimization), brand as the "AI standard" |
| Efficient scale |
🟢 |
Fabless model with TSMC's best process nodes, $76.7B cumulative R&D investment |
Moat Assessment
Moat Width: Wide
Moat Trend: Stable (widening in systems, narrowing at chip level from custom ASIC competition)
Summary:
NVIDIA's moat is the deepest in semiconductors. CUDA's 18-year head start means virtually all AI software is optimized for NVIDIA hardware. The shift to data center-scale systems (Blackwell NVL72, Grace Blackwell) where networking, chips, and software are co-designed makes the full-stack advantage even harder to replicate. AMD's Helios and hyperscaler custom chips are credible threats at the chip level, but NVIDIA's system-level integration and software ecosystem remain unmatched.
Management Assessment
Leadership
| Role |
Name |
Since |
Background |
Notes |
| CEO |
Jensen Huang |
1993 (co-founder) |
AMD microprocessor designer, LSI Logic director |
Visionary, #1 HBR best-performing CEO (2017). Net worth $164B. |
| CFO |
Colette M. Kress |
2013 |
Cisco SVP/CFO, Microsoft Server & Tools CFO, Texas Instruments |
Financial discipline through 65% revenue growth. |
| EVP Worldwide Field Ops |
Ajay K. Puri |
2005 |
Sun Microsystems (22 years), Harvard MBA |
|
| EVP Operations |
Debora Shoquist |
2007 |
JDS Uniphase EVP Ops, Quantum, HP |
|
| EVP General Counsel |
Timothy S. Teter |
2017 |
Cooley LLP (20+ years patent litigation), Stanford Law |
|
Founder Involvement
| Question |
Answer |
| Founder-led? |
Yes — Jensen Huang has been CEO since founding in 1993 |
| Founder ownership |
Significant (direct + indirect holdings) |
| Skin in the game |
Maximum — identity and company are synonymous |
Capital Allocation
| Metric |
Track Record |
| M&A discipline |
Good — Mellanox ($7B, 2020) was transformative. ARM deal failed but showed ambition. |
| Buyback timing |
Good — $41B returned to shareholders in FY2026 |
| R&D investment |
High — $76.7B cumulative, $13B in FY2026 alone. 31,000 of 42,000 employees in R&D. |
| Debt management |
Conservative — $8.5B long-term debt vs $118.9B equity |
Red Flags
- Excessive exec compensation — Large but aligned with shareholder value creation
- High turnover in key roles — No (3.7% turnover rate, extremely low)
- Related party transactions — None noted
- Aggressive accounting — Clean, straightforward hardware revenue recognition
Financials
Key Metrics
| Metric |
Q3 FY2026 |
Q2 FY2026 |
Q1 FY2026 |
Trend |
| Revenue |
$57.0B |
$46.7B |
$44.1B |
📈 Accelerating |
| Revenue Growth QoQ |
+22.0% |
+6.1% |
- |
📈 |
| Gross Margin |
73.4% |
72.4% |
60.5% |
📈 Expanding |
| Operating Margin |
63.2% |
60.8% |
49.1% |
📈 Expanding |
| Net Margin |
56.0% |
56.5% |
42.6% |
📈 |
| EPS (diluted) |
$1.30 |
$1.08 |
$0.76 |
📈 |
Full Year FY2026: Revenue $215.9B (+65.5% YoY). GAAP Gross Margin 75.0% in Q4. FCF $97B for the year.
Q4 FY2026 (just reported Feb 25): Record $68.1B revenue, +73% YoY. $35B FCF in a single quarter.
Quality Checks
| Check |
Status |
Notes |
| FCF positive? |
🟢 |
$97B annual FCF, $35B in Q4 alone. Best-in-class. |
| Profitable? |
🟢 |
56% net margins (Q3), 75% gross margins (Q4) |
| Debt manageable? |
🟢 |
$8.5B long-term debt vs $118.9B equity. D/E = 0.07. |
| Cash runway |
Infinite |
Generating more cash than they can deploy. $41B returned to shareholders in FY2026. |
Revenue Quality
| Factor |
Assessment |
| Recurring % |
Low (hardware-driven, but replacement cycles + capacity expansion = recurring demand) |
| Customer concentration |
Moderate — hyperscalers (40-50% of revenue) are concentrated but spending is non-discretionary |
| Contract length |
Multi-year cloud commitments, sovereign AI deals |
| NRR/NDR |
N/A (not SaaS), but customers consistently buy more each generation |
Leading Indicators
| Indicator |
Value |
Signal |
| Revenue Acceleration |
+15.88% |
🟢 Strong |
| YoY Growth |
+62.5% |
🟢🟢 Very Strong |
| Earnings Beat Rate |
100% |
🟢🟢 Perfect |
| Insider Trading |
-$3.0B net (0 buys, 100 sells) |
🔴 Bearish |
| Composite |
0.7 (Bullish) |
🟢 |
Balance Sheet (Q3 FY2026)
| Item |
Value |
| Total Assets |
$161.1B |
| Total Equity |
$118.9B |
| Long-term Debt |
$8.5B |
| Current Assets |
$116.5B |
| Current Liabilities |
$26.1B |
| Current Ratio |
4.47 |
| Debt/Equity |
0.07 |
| Inventory |
$19.8B |
Cash Flow (Q3 FY2026)
| Item |
Value |
| Operating Cash Flow |
$23.8B |
| Investing Cash Flow |
-$9.0B |
| Financing Cash Flow |
-$14.9B |
| Est. FCF (OCF + ICF) |
$14.7B |
| FCF Margin |
~25.8% |
Valuation
Current Multiples
| Metric |
Current |
5Y Avg |
Industry Avg |
| P/E (trailing) |
39.7 |
63.9 |
25 |
| P/E (forward) |
23.7 |
- |
20 |
| P/S |
~22 |
- |
5-8 |
| EV/EBITDA |
35-38 |
- |
15-20 |
| EV/FCF |
48.6 |
- |
- |
Historical Context
Current trailing P/E of 39.7 is significantly below the 5-year average of 63.9, reflecting the fact that earnings have grown much faster than the stock price. Forward P/E of ~24 is approaching reasonable territory for a company growing revenue 65%+ YoY.
Fair Value Estimate
| Method |
Fair Value |
Upside/Downside |
| Forward P/E (25x FY2027E $8.50 EPS) |
$213 |
+8% |
| Revenue multiple (20x FY2027E $300B) |
$245 |
+24% |
| DCF ($97B FCF growing 25%/yr, 10% discount) |
$250+ |
+27% |
Fair Value: $230 (blended estimate, based on sustained 30%+ growth)
Bull Case
Why This Could Work (5 Reasons)
AI infrastructure spending is accelerating, not decelerating
- Evidence: Q4 revenue $68.1B was +73% YoY, Q1 guidance crushed estimates
- Implication: Hyperscalers committing to hundreds of billions in AI capex through 2027+
Blackwell ramping + Rubin on deck
- Evidence: Blackwell Ultra launched FY2026, Rubin production starting H2 FY2027
- Implication: Each generation delivers 10x+ inference improvement, ensuring customers keep upgrading
Best-in-class financial profile — $97B FCF, 75% gross margins
- Evidence: FY2026 FCF of $97B, $41B returned to shareholders
- Implication: Can fund massive R&D while returning capital. Self-funding growth machine.
CUDA ecosystem moat deepening
- Evidence: 7.5M+ developers, 6,000+ applications, 78% of TOP500 supercomputers
- Implication: Switching costs increase with each application optimized for NVIDIA
Sovereign AI and enterprise adoption expanding TAM
- Evidence: Countries building national AI infrastructure on NVIDIA platforms
- Implication: New multi-billion-dollar demand vector beyond hyperscalers
Upside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| FY2027 revenue exceeds $300B, margins hold |
$250-275 (+27-40%) |
| Inference demand explodes with agentic AI |
$300+ (+52%) |
Bear Case
What Could Go Wrong (5 Risks)
Custom ASIC competition from hyperscalers
- How it plays out: Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium, Meta's AMD Helios deal reduce NVIDIA dependency for inference workloads
- Probability: Medium — happening gradually, but NVIDIA's full-stack advantage limits displacement
Export controls permanently foreclose China market
- How it plays out: NVIDIA cannot sell competitive data center products in China, competitors (Huawei) fill the gap
- Probability: High — already effectively foreclosed, per 10-K filing
- Impact: China was historically 20-25% of revenue. Lost opportunity benefits competitors.
AI capex cycle slowdown / correction
- How it plays out: Hyperscalers pull back on spending if AI ROI doesn't materialize fast enough
- Probability: Low-Medium — all signals point to accelerating spend through 2027, but cycles always end eventually
Gross margin compression from competition
- How it plays out: AMD MI300 offers 20-30% lower cost, Broadcom custom ASICs pressure pricing
- Probability: Medium — AMD held ~7% share in Q3 2025, growing slowly
Heavy insider selling (-$3.0B net)
- How it plays out: Insiders selling into strength is normal for a $5T company, but sustained selling can signal caution
- Probability: Low risk — likely routine portfolio diversification at these levels
Thesis Killers
- Gross margins decline below 65% for 2+ consecutive quarters (would signal pricing power erosion)
- Major hyperscaler publicly shifts >50% of AI compute to custom silicon
- Revenue growth decelerates to <20% YoY (signals demand saturation)
Downside Scenario
| If This Happens |
Stock Could |
| AI capex cycle peaks, growth slows to 20% |
$150 (-24%) — multiple compression |
| Custom ASICs take 30%+ of inference market |
$130 (-34%) — structural share loss |
Key Risk Factors (from 10-K, filed 2026-02-25)
From the most recent 10-K filing: NVIDIA is "effectively foreclosed from competing in China's data center computing/compute market" and notes that "lost opportunity and the benefit to our competitors will have a material and adverse impact." The Q1 FY2026 H20 writedown was $4.5B. The USG replacement for the AI Diffusion IFR remains uncertain in scope and timing.
Market-Moving News
Historical (What Moved This Stock Before)
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Market Reaction |
Lesson |
| 2024-06 |
10-for-1 stock split |
Neutral |
Positive sentiment, no fundamental change |
Splits drive retail interest |
| 2025-01 |
DeepSeek AI efficiency breakthrough |
-17% drawdown |
Overreaction — recovered within weeks |
Efficient AI = more demand for compute, not less |
| 2025-04 |
H20 export ban to China, $4.5B writedown |
-15% |
Partially recovered |
China loss was already priced in, market focused on rest of world |
| 2025-10 |
Q3 FY2026: $57B revenue, beat estimates |
+5% |
Justified rally |
Data center demand robust |
| 2026-02-25 |
Q4 FY2026: $68.1B record revenue, guidance beat |
+4% (AH) |
Positive but muted — high expectations |
Market demands perfection at this valuation |
Recent News
| Date |
Headline |
Impact |
Relevance |
| 2026-02-25 |
Q4 FY2026: $68.1B revenue, $97B FY FCF, guidance beat |
🟢 |
Record quarter, AI demand accelerating |
| 2026-02-24 |
Meta signs AMD Helios deal alongside NVDA commitment |
🟡 |
Diversification but NVDA remains primary |
| 2026-02-25 |
10-K filed: Rubin platform shipping H2 FY2027 |
🟢 |
Next-gen on track, 10x cost/token reduction vs Blackwell |
| 2026-01 |
CES 2026: Jensen confirms Vera Rubin in production |
🟢 |
Roadmap clarity, annual cadence maintained |
News Patterns
NVIDIA trades on data center revenue growth and guidance. Every earnings beat drives modest rallies (market expects perfection). Supply chain concerns (TSMC, export controls) cause sharp but temporary drawdowns. DeepSeek-style "AI efficiency" scares create buying opportunities.
| Symbol |
Name |
Relationship |
Weight |
Notes |
| SMH |
VanEck Semiconductor ETF |
Top holding |
18.7% |
Best semi-sector proxy |
| SOXX |
iShares Semiconductor ETF |
Top holding |
9.9% |
Broader semi exposure |
| SPY |
SPDR S&P 500 |
Major component |
6.6% |
$41.9B market value in fund |
| XLK |
Technology Select SPDR |
3rd largest holding |
4.7% |
Tech sector proxy |
| BOTZ |
Global X Robotics & AI |
2nd largest holding |
9.4% |
AI/robotics focused |
Sector Context
Semis outperforming broader tech. NVDA ecosystem scan (Feb 16) showed NVDA RSI 47 (neutral), TSM RSI 66 (strong), ARM RSI 63 (strong). AMD lagging at RSI 31. The chip cycle remains intact — NVDA and its supply chain are healthier than the growth/SaaS selloff suggests.
Cross-References (Where This Appears in Our System)
| Location |
File |
Context |
| Holdings |
holdings/stocks/2026-02-16-stocks.md |
NVDA $182.81, +178% gain, At SMA, Hold |
| Scans |
scans/2026-02-16-nvda-ecosystem.md |
NVDA ecosystem scan — semis resilient vs growth selloff |
| Scans |
scans/2026-02-23-insider-scan.md |
-$3.0B insider selling, heavy but routine |
| Scans |
scans/2026-02-16-ai-scan.md |
RSI 47, neutral, best relative strength in AI space |
| Candidates |
candidates/2026-02-05-portfolio.md |
Accumulate — DCA into quality on weakness |
| Watchlists |
mag7, ai-infra |
Core position across multiple lists |
| Ticker |
Why Related |
Suggested Placement |
Priority |
Notes |
| AMD |
GPU competitor, MI300/Helios |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟢 |
RSI 31, oversold — value play vs NVDA |
| TSM |
Primary foundry (TSMC) |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟢 |
RSI 66, strong — benefits from NVDA volume |
| ARM |
IP/design partner, edge AI |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟢 |
RSI 63, strong — mobile + data center |
| AVGO |
Custom ASIC competitor (Broadcom) |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟡 |
Primary ASIC threat |
| MU |
Memory supplier (HBM) |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟡 |
Direct NVDA supply chain play |
| MRVL |
Custom networking/ASICs |
candidates/nvda-ecosystem/ |
🟡 |
Networking for AI data centers |
Catalysts & Timing
Upcoming Catalysts
| Date |
Event |
Impact |
Watch For |
| 2026-02-25 |
Q4 FY2026 Earnings |
🟢 Beat |
$68.1B revenue, guidance crushed |
| 2026-05 (est.) |
Q1 FY2027 Earnings |
🟢 |
Blackwell Ultra ramp, guidance trajectory |
| H2 FY2027 |
Rubin platform ships |
🟢 |
Next-gen transition, 10x inference improvement |
| 2026 |
USG export control replacement rule |
🟡 |
Scope and restrictions unknown — risk factor |
| 2026-03 |
GTC Conference (expected) |
🟢 |
Product roadmap updates, customer wins |
Key Dates
| Event |
Frequency |
Next Date |
| Earnings |
Quarterly |
~May 2026 (Q1 FY2027) |
| GTC Conference |
Annual |
March 2026 (expected) |
| Dividend |
Quarterly |
Ex-date 2026-03-11, $0.01/share |
Entry Strategy
Position Sizing
| Conviction |
Allocation |
| Speculative |
0% (research only) |
| Low |
1-2% |
| Medium |
3-5% |
| High |
5-10% |
My conviction: High
Target allocation: Already held, ~6% of portfolio
Entry Approach
| Strategy |
Details |
| Entry zone |
$175 - $190 (recent consolidation support) |
| Starter position |
Already held — full position |
| Add on |
RSI < 35 pullback (like Feb 4-5 dip to $171-$174) |
| Full position at |
Current allocation appropriate |
Technical Levels
| Level |
Price |
Notes |
| Support 1 |
$185 |
SMA-20, recent consolidation floor |
| Support 2 |
$172 |
Feb 4-5 low, strong buying appeared |
| Resistance |
$207 |
All-time high (Oct 29, 2025) |
| 52-week high |
$207.03 |
|
| 52-week low |
~$90 |
April 2025 (DeepSeek/export control selloff) |
Research Checklist
Fundamentals
- Read most recent 10-K — Filed 2026-02-25, FY2026
- Review Q4 FY2026 earnings — Record $68.1B revenue
- Understand revenue drivers — Data Center 91%, Blackwell ramp
- Review financial statements via Massive/Polygon data
Competitive
- Map competitive landscape — AMD, Broadcom, hyperscaler ASICs
- Assess moat durability — Wide, CUDA ecosystem deepening
- Check customer concentration details
Management
- Research CEO/CFO background — Founder-led since 1993
- Check insider ownership — Heavy selling (-$3B) but routine
- Review capital allocation — $41B returned, $13B R&D
Valuation
- Review historical multiples — Trailing P/E 39.7 vs 5Y avg 63.9
- Compare to peers — Premium justified by growth/margins
- Identify entry/exit zones — $175-190 entry, $155 stop
Risk
- Write bear case — ASIC competition, China ban, capex cycle risk
- Identify thesis-killers — Margins <65%, revenue growth <20%
- Set stop-loss level — $155 (-21%)
Sources
| Type |
Link |
Notes |
| Investor Relations |
https://investor.nvidia.com |
|
| SEC Filings (10-K FY2026) |
Filed 2026-02-25 |
Via Massive/Polygon API |
| Q4 FY2026 Earnings |
NVIDIA Newsroom, CNBC |
Feb 25, 2026 |
| Valuation Data |
StockAnalysis, MacroTrends, Yahoo Finance |
|
Research Log
| Date |
Update |
| 2026-02-26 |
Created deep dive with full Massive financial data (income statements, balance sheets, cash flow, short interest, 10-K sections), Q4 FY2026 earnings, and cross-references |
| 2026-02-26 |
Price refresh (same day). Post-earnings pullback: -5.1% to $185.57. RSI 63.3, SMA20 $186.78. Near SMA consolidation — healthy. 30D -0.5%, 7D +0.3%. Core position +178% hold maintained. |
The Gold
Key Discoveries
| Discovery |
Implication |
| NVIDIA generated $97B FCF in FY2026 — more than most companies' total revenue |
Can self-fund any R&D program, return massive capital, and acquire strategically |
| Trailing P/E (39.7) is 38% below 5-year average (63.9) |
Earnings growth has massively outpaced stock price — valuation is compressing naturally |
| Export controls effectively foreclose China data center market |
Lost 20-25% addressable market, but rest-of-world demand more than compensates for now |
| 42,000 employees, 31,000 in R&D (74%), 3.7% turnover |
Elite engineering culture with exceptional retention — moat is the people |
| Short interest declining (262M to 254M over 30 days) |
Bears gradually capitulating |
| Q4 gross margin expanded to 75.0% despite Blackwell ramp |
No margin compression from product transitions — pricing power intact |
Open Questions
- How does the USG export control replacement rule (rescinding AI Diffusion IFR) affect NVIDIA's product scope?
- What is the H200 China licensing program's actual revenue potential?
- At what point does custom ASIC adoption reach a tipping point for inference workloads?
- How will the Rubin/Vera Rubin transition affect gross margins in FY2027?
- What is NVIDIA's actual customer concentration (% of revenue from top 5 customers)?
Mistakes (If Applicable)
| Mistake |
Lesson |
| N/A — holding since ~$65, +178% |
Patience in high-conviction names pays off |