Full Scan Market Brief — 2026-03-11

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Market Vibe

The word of the day is stagflation, and it is no longer whispering -- it is screaming through a megaphone. Oil has gone fully parabolic with USO at RSI 81 and up 36.8% in a single month thanks to the Iran/Hormuz crisis. That is the single data point driving nearly everything else in the market right now. Housing is in capitulation (ITB RSI 27, XHB RSI 29, both down 13-14% in 30 days), life sciences tools just entered a rare coordinated selloff (DHR RSI 29, MDT RSI 27, TMO RSI 33 -- all dropping together), and 49 of 59 insider-tracked stocks show net selling. The broad market is bleeding slowly: SPY down 2.3% on the month, DIA down 4.6%, and the VIX products are still up 24% on the month despite a slight 4% ease this week. Golden crosses on the major indices remain intact, so this is still technically a correction within an uptrend. But the walls are closing in.

What is working? A short list: gold (GLD +21% 3M, the single best-performing asset class), energy upstream producers (OXY +28.9% 3M, EOG +17.9%), defense contractors (LMT +37.4% 3M, NOC +31.5%), utilities (XLU +4.4% 30D), and biotech (XBI RSI 54, strong-up). Income and dividend ETFs are the quiet winners -- SCHD near its 52-week high, DOGG +10.7% 3M. Brazil (EWZ +17.1% 3M) is the lone bright spot internationally as a commodity exporter. QQQ is outperforming SPY, which is a weird kind of defensive rotation: large-cap tech has become the new safe haven within equities.

What does not fit? A few things are genuinely odd. BNTX (BioNTech) is at RSI 23 and down 23% on the month while its mRNA peer Moderna is up 89% over 3 months. That divergence is extreme and one of them has to be wrong. Copper miners (COPX -7.8% 30D) are crashing while copper itself had been strong -- that is the market pricing in demand destruction before it shows up in the metal price. The yen has a death cross and is weakening, which should not happen in a proper risk-off environment; BOJ policy is apparently more powerful than safe-haven flows. And FSLY (Fastly) somehow ripped 157.7% in 30 days to RSI 79 while the rest of edge/cloud is in death-cross purgatory. Nobody can explain that one.

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The Wild & Whacky

• USO RSI 81 with +36.8% 30D -- the most overbought asset in the entire scan universe. Oil is trading 23.8% above its own 20-day moving average. Mean reversion to SMA20 alone would be a 19% drop.
• BNTX RSI 23 vs MRNA +89% 3M -- the mRNA divergence is the most puzzling signal in the scan. Same sector, same technology platform, completely opposite price action.
• FSLY +157.7% in 30 days, RSI 79 -- while every other cloud/SaaS name is in a death cross. No insider buying to explain it. Pure momentum anomaly.
• HIMS +42.2% in one week -- bouncing from death cross territory with a +41.2% gap above its SMA20. Dead cat or phoenix? Death cross says dead cat.
• CRSP crashed 11.6% in one week after being within spitting distance of +20% profit targets across multiple paper portfolios. Was at +14.6%, now -2.7%. The cruelest reversal of the scan.
• Zero golden signals for the second consecutive scan -- no stock has both RSI below 30 AND insider buying. Smart money is not buying capitulation. That alone is a macro warning.
• 49 of 59 insider-tracked stocks show net selling -- the broadest bearish insider posture we have tracked. Only 3 buyers: TSLA (+$191M), CRSP (+$27M), ASAN (+$8.3M).
• Life sciences tools coordinated selloff -- DHR, MDT, TMO, and Agilent all dropping together into oversold territory. This kind of sector-wide de-rating is rare and historically has marked good entries.
• Oil-copper divergence at maximum spread: USO +36.8% 30D vs COPX -7.8% 30D. This is the textbook stagflation indicator -- costs rising while demand falls.
• Cloud/SaaS: 14 stocks with death crosses including MSFT, META, AMZN, PLTR, CRM, NOW, ADBE, WDAY, ZS. This is not a dip. It is a structural repricing of SaaS multiples.
• ZM and EOSE: insiders selling into oversold conditions -- the "selling into dip" pattern is the strongest bearish signal in insider analysis. When management dumps shares while the stock is already down 17-44%, the thesis is broken.
• Agriculture quietly near overbought -- SOYB only 1.8% from 52-week high at RSI 73, WEAT +8.9% 30D, DBA RSI 71. Food inflation is building.

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Paper Trade Report Card

claude-trader: +2.81% (was +3.85%) -- DECLINING

The flagship strategy gave back a full percentage point this week, mostly on the CRSP reversal (from +14.6% to -2.7%) and broader pullback across holdings. Still the best-performing strategy, still mostly in good shape, but the cracks are showing.

Notable: Bought DHR (RSI 29, life sciences bellwether) and LOW (RSI 30, only oversold stock with golden cross intact). NFLX at +20% is approaching the +30% target. TMO and LULU are the worry names -- both within 8% of stops and in sectors getting hammered (life sciences tools and consumer discretionary). CRSP's swing from +14.6% to -2.7% was the most painful single-position move.

claude-momentum: -0.11% (was +0.39%) -- DECLINING

Momentum gave back its recent gains. The INTU +20.7% profit target hit on 03/10 was the strategy's first win, but the rest of the book is drifting.

Notable: SNOW at +14.3% is tantalizingly close to the +20% profit target -- pulled back slightly from $182.84 but still healthy. The strategy is running very defensively at 72% cash, which is smart in a stagflation regime. ORCL is the one to watch -- drifting lower with RSI 43, now the closest to the -10% stop.

yolo: -0.81% (was +0.89%) -- DECLINING

YOLO went from near-breakeven to almost a full percent underwater, and the culprit is clear: CRSP's 15% crash in two days wiped out the gains from the HIMS +35.9% winner. The CRSP swing was particularly cruel -- YOLO was $1.97 from hitting its +20% profit target.

Notable: Wisely made no trades in a hostile regime. AVGO is the only position clearly working. LOW at RSI 19.8 (extreme) with golden cross intact is the most oversold position in any paper portfolio. Lesson forming: consider partial profit-taking at +15% on volatile names rather than waiting for the full +20% target. The CRSP miss hurts.

bench-signals: -0.2% open / -1.9% net -- DECLINING but GOT ITS FIRST WIN

The big news: NFLX closed at +20.0% for the strategy's FIRST WINNER after five consecutive losses. Held 28 days from $80.78 to $96.94. The system works -- it just takes time and pain.

Notable: AFRM was the 5th loss at -19.7% (fintech crushed in stagflation). New signals: MDT (RSI 27) and DHR (RSI 29) for the life sciences tools selloff. ESTC at -12.1% and PINS at -12.0% are both within striking distance of -15% stops -- those could be the 6th and 7th losses. On the bright side, LEGN surged from RSI 8 capitulation to +13.7%, PYPL is at +11.7%, and AVGO at +10.9%. The biotech recovery thesis is working; the SaaS entries mostly are not.

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The Big Picture

The Iran/Hormuz oil shock is the gravitational center of this entire market. Everything flows from USO at RSI 81: housing is capitulating because rate cuts are impossible with oil-driven inflation reaccelerating, life sciences tools are de-rating as growth expectations get cut, consumer discretionary is buckling under cost pressure, and international oil importers (India, Japan, Germany) are getting hammered. The Fed is trapped -- cannot cut into oil inflation, cannot hike into housing weakness. Gold and defense are the clearest beneficiaries, QQQ has oddly become the equity safe haven, and the SaaS repricing (14 death crosses) looks increasingly structural rather than cyclical. For the next scan, the key question is whether oil's RSI 81 marks a blow-off top or whether the Hormuz disruption pushes crude to new highs. If oil reverses, housing (ITB/XHB at RSI 27-29) and India (INDA RSI 30) become the biggest bounce trades in the scan universe. If it does not, the golden crosses on major indices -- the last bullish structural signal still standing -- will face a direct test. The CRSP reversal is a reminder: in this regime, take partial profits at +15% because the +20% target can vanish overnight. Insider sentiment (49 sellers vs 3 buyers) says smart money is not buying this dip. Listen to them.

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Sources

Full scan market brief generated 2026-03-11 from validated daily summaries (research/market-engine/data/summaries/), portfolio files, and scan reports across 14 source documents.