Status Report
Article
Status Report
1. Market Weather
| Indicator | Value | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| VOO (S&P 500) | $594.70 | 40.6 | Weak — off lows, not recovered |
| VIXY (Vol) | elevated | — | Risk-off pressure persisting |
| GLD (Gold) | $428.24 | 45.4 | Recovery underway — up $28 since 03/26 |
| TLT (Bonds) | — | 48.8 | Neutral — not a safe haven |
| USO (Oil) | $127.34 | 64.5 | Re-escalating — Iran "Rubio new worry" |
| UUP (Dollar) | — | 56.6 | Losing momentum — gold filling the gap |
| XLE (Energy) | $60.72 | 74.0 | Overbought — trim zone, not entry |
Regime: STAGFLATIONARY RECOVERY ATTEMPT — with a twist. VOO RSI 40.6 is off the capitulation low (RSI 29.6 on 03/20) but not recovered. Gold has flipped from crashed to recovering — GLD +6.9% off lows, GDX +10.4%. Oil re-escalated after a brief stall — Iran headline pushed USO back above $127. VIXY remains elevated but below the panic threshold that defined March's worst days. This is NOT the all-clear. It's the "maybe the floor is in" regime: MSFT/GOOGL bouncing from historic RSI extremes with insider support, gold recovering its safe-haven function, oil still running, and broad tech still oversold.
2. Sector Heat Map
Overbought (RSI > 65) — Trim / Trail Stops
| Sector / Name | RSI | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| XLE (Energy sector) | 74.0 | Still elevated; cooled from 83 but Iran re-escalated |
| XOP (Oil & Gas E&P) | 72.4 | COP, OXY, EOG all extreme; trail stops |
| COP | 79.0 | Most overbought single name in universe |
| OXY | 75.7 | Rubio/Iran headline pushing higher |
| EOG | 73.9 | Elevated despite some cooling |
| ARM | 67.0 | Custom silicon momentum intact |
| AKAM | 62.0 | Outperformer vs broader cyber collapse |
Oversold (RSI < 35) — Entry Zones
| Name | RSI | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 34.6 | Bounced from 24.4 intraday low; insider buying confirmed |
| SYK | 30.6 | Medtech capitulation — small position only |
| ABT | 27.9 | Extreme oversold; bounce possible, not investor entry |
| ADBE | 38.2 | Creative suite moat; approaching strong oversold |
| CRWD | 43.3 | Endpoint recovery; bought today at 43.3 in claude-momentum |
| GE | 38.3 | Aerospace compounder; bought today at 38.3 |
| GOOGL | 40.2 | Bounced from 20.7 capitulation low on 03/30; golden cross intact |
Most oversold single name: ABT RSI 27.9 (death cross, not investor entry) Most oversold investable name: SYK RSI 30.6 (medtech, small position territory) Most oversold Mag7: MSFT RSI 34.6 (insider buying — highest conviction)
3. Top 5 Opportunities
| Rank | Stock | RSI | Price | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSFT | 34.6 | $368.57 | Golden signal: insider buying + RSI extreme. Azure/Copilot moat intact. War-ends trade #8. Added to all strategies today. |
| 2 | GOOGL | 40.2 | $286.81 | RSI 20.7 capitulation low on 03/30 — bouncing +4.9%. Golden cross intact. Insider buying confirmed. Best Mag7 recovery setup. |
| 3 | GLD/GDX Recovery | 45.4/47.3 | $428/$90.89 | Gold perspective officially flipped to "Recovery." GDX +10.4% since 03/26. NUGT 2x play added in YOLO today. |
| 4 | GE Aerospace | 38.3 | $284.42 | RSI 28.1 extreme oversold. Jet engine duopoly thesis intact. War-ends trade #9. Clean energy turbines dual tailwind. Added to claude-momentum today. |
| 5 | CRWD | 43.3 | $389.02 | Endpoint leader recovering from 2024 outage overhang. -31.4% from high. RSI bounce play. Added to claude-momentum today. |
4. Top Risks
| Risk | Detail | Urgency |
|---|---|---|
| MDT near stop | $86.03 vs $83 stop — only 3.5% gap. No reversal at RSI 34. | CRITICAL — set broker alert |
| bench-signals LULU | $151.12 vs $150.45 stop — only 0.4% gap. -14.6% from entry. Most likely next stop trigger. | CRITICAL |
| BTC risk-off | RSI 33, down $1,823 since 03/26. IBIT death cross. Crypto fully in risk-off. | Monitoring |
| Energy RSI reversal | XLE RSI 74, XOP RSI 72, COP RSI 79. Iran escalation holding them elevated but reversal risk when conflict fades. | Active — trail stops |
| META death cross | RSI 39.4, death cross still active. -13.1% from entry in bench-signals. Stop $557.31 — 2.3% gap. | Watching |
| SAP structural | RSI 33.8, -13.2% from bench-signals entry. Stop $167.43 — 2.1% gap. | Watching |
5. Actions Log
New Entry Zones Set Today (03/31)
- ABT $98–$104 — RSI 27.9 extreme, death cross. Bounce watch only.
- SYK $315–$330 — RSI 30.6 approaching capitulation. Small position zone.
- MSFT $350–$370 — RSI 34.6 with insider buying. Strong buy zone. Added today across strategies.
- GOOGL $272–$290 — RSI 40.2 bouncing from 20.7 low. Insider buying confirmed. Added today.
Today's Trades (03/31)
| Strategy | Trade | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| claude-trader | BUY MSFT 6.78sh @ $368.57 | Adding to position at oversold level, insider buying |
| claude-trader | BUY GOOGL 8.72sh @ $286.81 | Adding — bounced from RSI 20.7 capitulation |
| claude-momentum | BUY GE 14.06sh @ $284.42 | RSI 28.1 extreme, war-ends aerospace play |
| claude-momentum | BUY CRWD 7.71sh @ $389.02 | RSI 30.9, endpoint leader recovery play |
| yolo | BUY NUGT 37.83sh @ $185.02 | 2x gold recovery leveraged play |
| yolo | BUY LABU 42.45sh @ $164.9 | 3x biotech; only strong-up sector momentum |
| yolo | BUY GOOGL 10.46sh @ $286.81 | Adding to GOOGL on RSI bounce from capitulation |
| bench-signals | CLOSE ESTC #14 | -15.3% stop triggered ($59.00 → $49.96) |
| bench-signals | CLOSE ZS #36 | -17.3% stop triggered ($169.39 → $140.15) |
| bench-signals | OPEN QCOM #71 | RSI 36.2 — mobile cycle bottoming entry |
| bench-signals | OPEN ABT #72 | RSI 27.9 — extreme oversold healthcare washout |
Stop Events
- ZS bench-signals: -17.3% stop triggered. Cyber premium fully deflated. Confirmed structural sell.
- ESTC bench-signals: -15.3% stop triggered. Cloud SaaS structural de-rating confirmed.
Active Price Alerts
- MDT $83 — CRITICAL stop-loss. Set broker alert immediately.
- GOOGL $263 — SMA200 test. Table-pound add level.
- LLY $894 — SMA200 thesis checkpoint.
- GLD $420 — Reversal failure level.
- NET $194 — Thesis break level (vs $200 support).
6. Portfolio Pulse
Paper Trade Leaderboard (03/31)
| Strategy | Total Value | Return | Positions | Trades Today |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| yolo | $100,911 | +0.91% | 7 open | BUY NUGT, LABU, GOOGL add |
| claude-momentum | $100,699 | +0.70% | 10 open | BUY GE, CRWD |
| claude-trader | $100,269 | +0.27% | 7 open | BUY MSFT add, GOOGL add |
| bench-signals | ~$55,567 | mixed | 59 signals | CLOSE ESTC, ZS; OPEN QCOM, ABT |
claude-trader Positions ($100,269 — +0.27%)
| Ticker | Shares | Avg Entry | Current | P&L% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 12.21 | $204.75 | $216.49 | +5.7% |
| META | 4.56 | $547.75 | $570.00 | +4.1% |
| ECL | 7.84 | $254.95 | $264.18 | +3.6% |
| LLY | 2.21 | $903.48 | $916.02 | +1.4% |
| GOOGL | 17.62 | $283.85 | $286.81 | +1.0% |
| MSFT | 14.79 | $371.80 | $368.57 | -0.9% |
| SYK | 7.42 | $336.71 | $325.95 | -3.2% |
Cash: $78,008 (78% cash — conservative)
claude-momentum Positions ($100,699 — +0.70%)
| Ticker | Shares | Avg Entry | Current | P&L% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 24.42 | $204.75 | $216.49 | +5.7% |
| TMO | 6.46 | $464.38 | $489.11 | +5.3% |
| META | 5.48 | $547.75 | $570.00 | +4.1% |
| ECL | 19.61 | $254.95 | $264.18 | +3.6% |
| GOOGL | 14.24 | $280.96 | $286.81 | +2.1% |
| LLY | 3.32 | $903.48 | $916.02 | +1.4% |
| GE | 14.06 | $284.42 | $284.42 | 0.0% (new) |
| CRWD | 7.71 | $389.02 | $389.02 | 0.0% (new) |
| MSFT | 13.35 | $374.53 | $368.57 | -1.6% |
| SYK | 8.91 | $336.71 | $325.95 | -3.2% |
Cash: $62,000 (62% cash — moderate deployment)
yolo Positions ($100,911 — +0.91%)
| Ticker | Shares | Avg Entry | Current | P&L% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBV | 39.07 | $204.75 | $216.49 | +5.7% |
| META | 12.78 | $547.75 | $570.00 | +4.1% |
| LLY | 8.85 | $903.48 | $916.02 | +1.4% |
| GOOGL | 28.26 | $283.13 | $286.81 | +1.3% |
| NUGT | 37.83 | $185.02 | $185.02 | 0.0% (new) |
| LABU | 42.45 | $164.90 | $164.90 | 0.0% (new) |
| MSFT | 26.70 | $374.53 | $368.57 | -1.6% |
Cash: $45,116 (45% cash — most aggressive deployed) Realized P&L: +$111.98 (SOXS win)
bench-signals (~$55,567 — net realized ~-$1,033)
Signal tracker — 59 open signals, 11 closed. Win rate 18.2% (2W/9L).
Leaders: GDX +14.8%, PYPL +12.0%, TAC +9.3%, LEGN +4.8%, IQV +4.5% Danger zone (9 signals): LULU -14.6% (stop 0.4% away — CRITICAL), NKE -13.8%, SAP -13.2%, META -13.1%, ADBE -10.9%, HD -10.3%, SHOP -10.8%, SNOW -10.8%, CLX -11.2% Just closed today: ESTC -15.3%, ZS -17.3% (both stops triggered) Just opened today: QCOM RSI 36.2, ABT RSI 27.9
7. Key Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Most oversold (all) | ABT RSI 27.9 |
| Most oversold (investable) | SYK RSI 30.6 |
| Most oversold Mag7 | MSFT RSI 34.6 |
| Most overbought | COP RSI 79.0 |
| Gold (GLD) | $428.24 (+6.9% recovery off lows) |
| Oil (USO) | $127.34 (re-accelerating, Iran escalation) |
| BTC | ~$29,941 (RSI 33 — risk-off, down ~$1,823 since 03/26) |
| GDX | $90.89 (+10.4% since 03/26 — bench-signals #1 winner) |
| LABU | $164.90 (RSI 54.3 — only sector strong-up) |
| Monster universe | ~104 stocks (contracted 34% in 5 days from 158) |
8. What Changed vs 2026-03-26
- MSFT RSI 25.4 → 34.6: Bounced from intraday low of 24.4. Stabilization signal with insider buying. Added to all three active strategies today.
- GOOGL RSI 28.4 → 40.2: Touched 20.7 capitulation low on 03/30, then bounced +4.9%. Best single-week RSI recovery in Mag7. Added to all strategies today.
- Gold perspective renamed: "Gold Crash" → "Gold Recovery." GLD +6.9% off lows, GDX +10.4%, silver outperforming. Central bank floor holding.
- Iran re-escalated: USO $127+ (was $117 on 03/26). Oil trade NOT over. "Rubio new worry" headline pushed energy cluster higher. Avoid trimming too aggressively.
- Biotech became the only strong-up sector: LABU RSI 54.3, MRNA +69.8% 3M, XBI RSI 56. Momentum is real — YOLO bought 3x biotech bull ETF today.
- Monster universe contracted 34%: NVDA, AVGO, ANET, TSM dropped out of monster territory. Energy/commodity now dominates the leaders list. Tech wipeout in progress.
- ZS + ESTC stops triggered: Two more cloud/SaaS structural breaks confirmed. Cyber war premium fully deflated at sector level. bench-signals win rate dropped to 18.2%.
- All three active strategies first time simultaneously positive: YOLO +0.91%, claude-momentum +0.70%, claude-trader +0.27%. First time since initial setup week.
Data: 2026-03-31 validated daily summaries. Previous status: the March 24 daily status. Cross-ref: the day's actions log and active perspectives list.
Sources
Price, RSI and trend figures read from the desk's validated daily scan summaries (summaries). No number in this note was computed in prose.
Related
7 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.