Source

Previous: [2026-04-03-crypto-geopolitics-correlation.md]

Status: ACTIVE — BTC bounced to $72.5K but death cross persists. Narrative shifting.

Narrative arc: Bear market → Potential inflection point

The crypto complex just had its best week in months. BTC surged from $67K to $72.5K (+8.5%), with RSI recovering from 44 to 60. ETH to $2,226. The trend flipped to "weak-up" — the first positive trend reading since the bear market began. This is NOT a confirmed reversal — the death cross is still in place, BTC is still -18% below SMA200, and -42.5% from its 52-week high. But it's the first time the bears have been put on the defensive.

What's driving the bounce? Risk-on rotation. AMZN +10%, GOOGL +7%, NVDA +4% — the tech complex is finding its footing and crypto is going along for the ride. This CONFIRMS the "crypto is a risk asset" thesis from earlier — BTC bounces when risk appetite returns, not because of safe-haven demand.

Key level: $75K. If BTC breaks above $75K with RSI > 65, the near-term bear thesis weakens significantly. Below $65K and the March lows get retested.

Watch For

1. BTC > $75K with RSI > 65 — trend change confirmation
2. BTC < $65K — bear market resumes
3. MSTR behavior — leveraged BTC proxy, canary in the mine
4. ETH/BTC ratio — alt season signal

Cross-references

• War thesis: [research/perspectives/2026-04-10-iran-war-oil.md]