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Status: ACTIVE — "Stable store of value" thesis broken; crypto joins the risk-off selloff

Narrative arc: Convergence → Breakdown — BTC is now behaving like a risk asset, not a store of value

The thesis has evolved dramatically. Over the last 5 days, BTC dropped from $69,464 (RSI 48) to $67,641 (RSI 33) — a -2.6% price move with an RSI collapse of 15.7 points. Meanwhile, gold RALLIED +6.9%. This is the opposite of what a "digital gold" or "store of value" asset does during escalating geopolitical stress.

Updated Data

The divergence has flipped. In March 24-26, the story was "BTC stable while gold crashes = digital gold thesis getting credit." Now in March 31, the story is "BTC selling off while gold recovers = digital gold thesis rejected." The relative performance has completely reversed.

Verdict Update

The experiment is running in real time. The geopolitical stress test results so far:

• BTC didn't rally to safety like gold traditionally does ❌ (same as before)