Crypto Scan
Crypto Scan
Full risk-off across crypto. Every single asset — coins, ETFs, and equities — is in strong-down trend with active death crosses. BTC dropped from $69.4K to $67.6K since March 26 and RSI has slid from the high 40s to 45.5. ETH is the lone mild positive (RSI 51, weak-up) but that's deceptive — it's -31.3% vs SMA200. Miners (MARA -41.9% vs SMA200, RIOT -19.5%) are amplifying BTC's decline. COIN -13.8% 7D is the crypto-equity canary. The only anomaly: RIOT still has a golden cross — the last crypto equity standing with any structural support.
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🔴 Breakdown — death crosses everywhere, miners bleeding, ETF flows negative |
| Key insight | BTC death cross active, -25.3% vs SMA200 (-46.4% from 52wk high) — this is bear market structure, not a dip |
Tier 1: Coins
| Symbol | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | From High | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | $67,641 | 45.5 | strong-down | -25.3% | -5.7% | +1.0% | -22.7% | -46.4% | 🔴 Death cross |
| ETH-USD | $2,099 | 51.0 | weak-up | -31.3% | -5.6% | +6.8% | -29.3% | -57.6% | 🔴 Death cross |
| SOL-USD | $82.36 | 41.4 | strong-down | -41.0% | -9.5% | -2.4% | -33.8% | -67.5% | 🔴 Death cross |
| XRP-USD | $1.33 | 40.0 | strong-down | -34.7% | -7.0% | -3.6% | -27.7% | -63.6% | 🔴 Death cross |
| ADA-USD | $0.24 | 38.6 | strong-down | -47.7% | -7.7% | -14.3% | -27.3% | -76.4% | 🔴 Death cross |
| DOGE-USD | $0.09 | 43.5 | strong-down | -39.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -25.0% | -70.1% | 🔴 Death cross |
| AVAX-USD | $8.84 | 42.8 | strong-down | -42.9% | -7.9% | -3.5% | -28.1% | -75.4% | 🔴 Death cross |
| DOT-USD | $1.26 | 35.0 | strong-down | -46.0% | -12.7% | -24.6% | -29.6% | -76.5% | 🔴 Death cross |
| LINK-USD | $8.77 | 46.9 | strong-down | -36.3% | -5.2% | -0.8% | -28.1% | -68.4% | 🔴 Death cross |
Tier 2: Spot ETFs
| Symbol | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | From High | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | $38.33 | 44.0 | strong-down | -30.9% | -4.9% | -2.2% | -22.8% | -46.6% | 🔴 Death cross |
| GBTC | $52.57 | 43.6 | strong-down | -31.4% | -5.0% | -2.5% | -23.1% | -47.0% | 🔴 Death cross |
| ETHE | $17.04 | 48.1 | strong-down | -35.5% | -5.2% | +2.7% | -29.7% | -57.5% | 🔴 Death cross |
| BITO | $9.31 | 43.8 | strong-down | -31.9% | -4.9% | -2.3% | -23.3% | -60.6% | 🔴 Death cross |
Tier 3: Crypto Equities
| Symbol | Price | RSI | Trend | vsSma200 | 7D% | 30D% | 3M% | From High | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | $122.06 | 39.1 | strong-down | -52.5% | -10.9% | -11.3% | -19.7% | -73.3% | 🔴 Death cross |
| COIN | $172.54 | 42.9 | strong-down | -38.6% | -13.8% | -6.9% | -23.7% | -61.2% | 🔴 Death cross |
| MARA | $7.95 | 43.9 | strong-down | -41.9% | -8.2% | -15.9% | -11.5% | -66.1% | 🔴 Death cross |
| RIOT | $12.19 | 38.1 | down | -19.5% | -16.6% | -25.8% | -3.8% | -49.1% | 🟡 Golden cross (!) |
| CLSK | $8.43 | 39.1 | strong-down | -30.9% | -15.2% | -20.1% | -16.7% | -64.3% | 🔴 Death cross |
| BITQ | $18.65 | 42.3 | strong-down | -15.3% | -12.4% | -8.8% | -6.4% | -40.7% | 🔴 Death cross |
BTC Momentum Analysis
BTC at $67,641 is the number that frames everything else in this scan. The key data points:
- Death cross active — SMA50 ($68,660) just crossed below SMA200 ($90,586). This is a structural bear signal.
- -25.3% below SMA200 — In prior cycles, BTC spending time this far below SMA200 has preceded either continued decline OR eventual violent recovery. There's no middle ground.
- RSI 45.5 — Not oversold. This is the concerning part. RSI hasn't hit 30 yet, meaning there's likely more downside before capitulation buyers step in.
- 7D -5.7% — The March 31 decline accelerated the trend established in the March 26 scan. The $69.4K → $67.6K drop is the continuation, not the bottom.
- +1.0% 30D — Deceptive stability on 30D. The 3M view (-22.7%) is the honest read.
What would change the thesis: BTC RSI < 30 + on-chain metrics showing exchange outflows (accumulation) + IBIT 7-day inflow streak. None of those conditions are met today.
ETF Flows Signal
All four spot ETFs (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO) are in near-lockstep with BTC: RSI 43-48, death crosses, -22% to -30% 3M. ETHE's slightly higher RSI (48.1) reflects ETH's brief outperformance but that's fading.
BITO -60.6% from 52wk high is the starkest number — the futures-based BTC ETF captures both spot BTC decline AND roll costs, making it the worst performing vehicle. IBIT at -46.6% from high is cleaner.
Miner Health
Miners are leveraged BTC plays and the leverage is working against them:
- MSTR ($122.06, RSI 39.1) — MicroStrategy -73.3% from high. The BTC treasury strategy is being stress-tested. At BTC $67.6K, MSTR's BTC holdings are still above their average cost basis (~$58K) but the stock price discount to NAV is widening as confidence in the strategy erodes.
- MARA ($7.95, RSI 43.9) — Marathon Digital -66.1% from high. Mining economics deteriorating: post-halving hashrate competition + lower BTC price = compressed margins. -15.9% 30D.
- RIOT ($12.19, RSI 38.1) — The standout anomaly. Still has a golden cross (only crypto equity with one). -16.6% 7D is painful but the structural signal is intact. RIOT's newer facilities and energy hedges provide slightly better margin protection vs MARA.
- CLSK ($8.43, RSI 39.1) — CleanSpark -64.3% from high, -20.1% 30D. Smaller scale = worse unit economics at current BTC prices.
MSTR / COIN as Bellwethers
MSTR ($122.06, -52.5% vs SMA200): The Michael Saylor bet is now deeply underwater on a price basis. -73.3% from 52wk high. MSTR amplifies BTC moves by ~3x due to leverage. If BTC tests $60K, MSTR likely approaches $80-90. If BTC bounces to $75K, MSTR could quickly recover to $150+. It's a high-conviction, high-volatility expression of the BTC thesis — not a diversification play.
COIN ($172.54, -38.6% vs SMA200): Coinbase is both a crypto equity AND a trading volume play. With BTC volatility (not price) compressed, Coinbase's fee revenue contracts. -13.8% 7D in a week where BTC only fell -5.7% tells you COIN is repricing lower on forward revenue expectations. The -61.2% from 52wk high reflects a market that no longer prices COIN at peak-cycle multiples.
Risk Gauge
What crypto RSIs tell us about broader risk appetite:
The median RSI across the 9 coins is ~42. That's not capitulation (RSI < 30) but it's not neutral either. Combined with the fact that the S&P (VOO RSI 40.6) and Nasdaq (QQQ RSI 40.8) are similarly positioned, crypto is NOT leading indicators of broader risk here — everything is moving together in a coordinated risk-off.
The divergence to watch: If BTC starts recovering while equities stay flat, that's the crypto-specific catalyst signal. If equities recover first and crypto lags, that confirms crypto is in its own bear cycle independent of macro.
Current read: Coordinated macro risk-off. No crypto-specific catalyst visible.
Action Matrix
| Asset | Action | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | 🔍 Watch | RSI 45.5; death cross; wait for RSI < 35 before adding |
| ETH-USD | 🔍 Watch | RSI 51 looks OK but -31.3% vs SMA200 is deeply broken |
| SOL-USD | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 41.4; -41% vs SMA200; high beta with no catalyst |
| XRP-USD | ❌ Don't Buy | Regulatory uncertainty + -63.6% from high |
| ADA/DOT | ❌ Don't Buy | RSI 38-35; broken multi-year; no recovery catalyst |
| IBIT | 🔍 Watch | Cleanest BTC ETF; wait for RSI < 35 + inflow signal |
| GBTC | ⚠️ Avoid | Higher fee drag vs IBIT; no reason to choose this |
| MSTR | ⚠️ Caution | Leveraged BTC play; only if you're convicted on BTC |
| COIN | 🔍 Watch | Volume/fee recovery needed; wait for BTC stabilization |
| RIOT | 🔍 Watch | Only miner with golden cross; RSI 38.1 approaching oversold |
| MARA/CLSK | ❌ Don't Buy | -66%/-64% from high; poor mining economics |
Key Discoveries
| Discovery | Implication |
|---|---|
| RIOT is only crypto equity with golden cross | May be the strongest miner to own when crypto recovers |
| ETH RSI 51 (weak-up) vs BTC RSI 45.5 (strong-down) | ETH showing relative strength — watch for ETH/BTC ratio expansion |
| DOT at RSI 35.0, -24.6% 30D | Most oversold coin; -76.5% from high — value trap or capitulation? |
| BTC RSI never hit oversold this cycle | No classic capitulation signal yet — more downside risk than upside |
Data: 2026-03-31 pre-computed summaries.
Related
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