Crypto's risk appetite signal is deeply negative: BTC down -21.3% in 3 months and -44.9% from its 52-week high, ETH -28.9% in 3 months and -57.2% from highs — the spot ETFs (IBIT, GBTC) are both on death cross with strong-down trends, and the only available crypto equity data shows SOL -65.1% from 52wk high while most miner/exchange data is missing. The "number go up" cycle is firmly in reversal.

Note: Many alt coins and crypto equities (XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, DOT, LINK, MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK) had no data available in the pre-computed summary — only BTC, ETH, IBIT, and GBTC have complete data.

BTC at $69,540 is in a complex technical position:

• RSI 47.4 — not oversold, not in capitulation
• -0.7% below SMA20 — essentially at the 20-day, short-term stabilization
• BUT: -25.2% below SMA200 — the long-term trend is broken
• Death cross confirmed (SMA50 below SMA200)
• -44.9% from 52-week high — nearly half its value erased
• 3M change: -21.3% — not a minor pullback

Reading: BTC is in a bear market by every structural metric. The RSI being neutral (47.4) suggests neither extreme capitulation nor recovery — more of a dead zone. The +2.3% 30D is a short-term stabilization after a violent move down, not a reversal. The -25.2% gap below SMA200 historically requires either a long base-building period or further capitulation to resolve.

IBIT (BlackRock BTC ETF) and GBTC are tracking BTC precisely:

• Both down -21% 3M, reflecting BTC spot price
• Both on death cross (SMA50 below SMA200)
• Both -30% below SMA200 — structurally broken
• RSI ~46 — not capitulation, just trending lower

Signal: Institutional ETF demand is not providing a floor. The narrative of "spot ETF approval = permanent bid" has been definitively broken. The -30% below SMA200 is the key tell — this is structural, not tactical.

Data gap: MARA, RIOT, CLSK have no pre-computed data available. This is a meaningful gap — miners are typically the highest-beta indicator of crypto market health. They leverage BTC price with operational costs.

Inferred: If BTC is -44.9% from highs, miners are likely -60-80% from highs. Mining economics deteriorate non-linearly with BTC price decline. The next halving cycle dynamics are the key watch.

SOL note: SOL-USD shows -65.1% from 52-week high with -2.2% 7D — alts are being punished harder than BTC, which is the typical bear market pattern (BTC dominance rising).

Data gap: Both MSTR and COIN have no available data. These are the two primary equity proxies for crypto sentiment:

• MSTR (MicroStrategy) holds ~190,000 BTC. If BTC is at $69,540 vs prior highs near $100K, MSTR's NAV is significantly impaired.
• COIN (Coinbase) trading volumes and revenue are directly correlated with crypto activity levels.

Inferred: Given BTC's -44.9% from highs and ETF outflows, COIN revenue and MSTR NAV are both under pressure.

Crypto as risk appetite indicator — current reading: RISK-OFF

Bottom line: The crypto risk gauge is firmly negative. No capitulation signal (RSI would need to go below 30 for genuine oversold), no trend reversal (SMA200 gap is too large), and the ETF flow story has not offset the structural weakness. Crypto is confirming, not contradicting, the broader risk-off environment.

None. With BTC -25.2% below SMA200 and death cross confirmed, there are no confirmed uptrends in this universe with available data.

• ETH — RSI 50.2, +1.6% above SMA20, +7.6% 30D. The best-positioned name short-term. BUT -33.4% below SMA200 means this is a dead cat bounce until proven otherwise.
• BTC — RSI 47.4, at SMA20. Short-term consolidation. Not a buy signal with death cross active.

• All available assets are in strong-down or weak trends
• No available data for alt coins, miners, or most crypto equities

• Is BTC's $69K level a genuine support zone or just a consolidation before the next leg down to $50K–60K?
• ETH's +7.6% 30D vs BTC's +2.3% — is ETH decoupling upward or just lagging the decline?
• When MSTR, COIN, MARA data becomes available, will miners confirm the bottom or are they still in free fall?
• What level of BTC price does MSTR's leveraged BTC strategy become financially stressed?

Crypto scan — available data: BTC-USD, ETH-USD, SOL-USD (partial), IBIT, GBTC. Remaining assets (XRP, ADA, DOGE, AVAX, DOT, LINK, ETHE, BITO, MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITQ) had no pre-computed data. Date: 2026-03-20.