Crypto as risk-appetite indicator: BEARISH. BTC RSI 35.4 -4.9% 7D in strong-down trend; ETH RSI 31.5 -5.7% 7D approaching oversold; all spot coins trading below SMA20/50/200. Spot ETFs (IBIT, GBTC, BITO) at RSI 38-39. Prior tape confirms: proxies still weak (MSTR RSI 45.8 -5.7% 7D). BUT miners are diverging bullishly: RIOT RSI 71 +57.3% 30D, CLSK RSI 77.6 +46% 30D — potential leading indicator or capital rotation away from BTC itself. COIN RSI 49 flat. BTC -41.8% from 52wkHigh = deep discount but no floor signal yet.

BTC-USD: $73,401 | RSI 35.4 | vsSMA20 -5.4% | 7D -4.9% | 30D -3.1% | -41.8% from 52wkHigh

• BTC in strong-down trend; SMA20, SMA50, and SMA200 all above price (SMA200 = $79,809 — deep below)
• RSI 35.4 approaching oversold territory but not yet in capitulation; death cross in effect
• 3M +9.6% is the one green data point — modest recovery from cycle lows, but recent 7D/30D are red
• -41.8% from 52wkHigh signals bear market territory (prior peak ~$126K implied)
• BTC as macro indicator: weak BTC = risk-off signal for growth/speculative assets broadly

Altcoin relative weakness (all coins trading below SMA200):

• ETH RSI 31.5 — closest to oversold signal; -59.4% from high; ETH consistently underperforming BTC
• ADA, AVAX, DOT at RSI 34-39 — altcoin bleed continuing; all -75% from highs = deep bear market
• XRP the relative "strongest" alt at RSI 47.2 (still weak-down trend)
• DOGE -9.1% in 7 days — momentum-driven coins losing the speculative bid

Spot ETFs tracking BTC decline uniformly; no ETF divergence:

• IBIT RSI 39 — approaching oversold; BlackRock's spot ETF tracking BTC almost 1:1
• GBTC RSI 38.7 — almost identical to IBIT; both -42% from high; institutional holders still waiting
• ETHE RSI 33.1 — ETH ETF near capitulation; more downside risk than BTC ETFs given ETH's relative weakness
• BITO RSI 38.5 — futures ETF at premium-decay drag; worse long-term hold than IBIT/GBTC
• ETF Flow Interpretation: Low RSI on ETFs suggests retail/institutional selling pressure; no reversal signal yet

Miners diverging sharply — most now OUTPERFORMING spot BTC on 30D/3M basis:

• RIOT RSI 71, +57.3% 30D, +65% 3M — parabolic miner performance while BTC goes sideways
• CLSK RSI 77.6, +46% 30D, +73% 3M — most extended miner; near overbought
• MARA RSI 67, +52.2% 3M — less extended but still strongly positive
• The divergence is significant: miners up 45-57% 30D vs BTC down -3.1% 30D
• Interpretation: Miners are pricing in a BTC recovery that hasn't happened yet; OR: miners benefiting from lower energy costs + efficiency gains independent of BTC spot; OR: speculative capital rotating into miners as "leveraged BTC" plays without buying spot
• Risk: if BTC doesn't recover, miners could correct hard — high operating leverage

MSTR — $159.09 | RSI 45.8 | vsSMA20 -8.3% | 7D -5.7% | 30D -3.8% | -65.2% from 52wkHigh

• MicroStrategy RSI 45.8 — still weak despite miner divergence
• vsSMA20 -8.3% confirms prior tape reading (MSTR RSI ~46, spot/leverage soft) — CONFIRMED
• MSTR is the purest BTC proxy in equity markets; its continued weakness is a bearish signal
• -65.2% from high = significant destruction; 30D -3.8% tracking BTC decline
• No capitulation signal yet; RSI 45.8 is neutral-to-weak

COIN — $189.03 | RSI 48.8 | vsSMA20 -2.9% | 7D -3.2% | 30D +0.7% | -57.5% from 52wkHigh

• Coinbase near RSI 50 — more resilient than MSTR; flat 30D (+0.7%)
• -57.5% from high = significant destruction but business model (exchange revenue) slightly more insulated from pure BTC price
• Strong-down trend; death cross; no positive signal
• COIN diverging slightly from MSTR — possible: revenue diversification (staking, L2, custody) offsetting spot headwinds

BITQ (Basket ETF) — $28.61 | RSI 65.1 | vsSMA20 +6.4% | 7D +7.6% | 30D +20.3% | -9.0% from high

• BITQ RSI 65 — outperforming spot BTC; only -9% from high vs BTC -41.8%
• The basket effect: BITQ holds miners + exchanges; RIOT/CLSK miner rip lifting the basket
• If miners cool, BITQ will revert toward BTC

• BTC needs to reclaim $77.5K (SMA20) to neutralize near-term downtrend
• ETH support at $1,800; if breaks, $1,500 is next key level
• IBIT key level: $38-40 range has held twice; -6.3% below SMA20

Crypto Risk Gauge: 🔴 RED — Risk-Off

Risk gauge = RED with one bullish asterisk: miner divergence (RIOT/CLSK/MARA all RSI 67-78) is the only green signal in the complex. This historically can precede a BTC recovery OR can be an isolated speculative squeeze. Without spot BTC RSI improvement, treat as noise.

• BTC confirmed weak: prior tape called MSTR RSI ~46 and spot/leverage soft — CONFIRMED; BTC now RSI 35.4
• ETH deteriorated: approaching RSI 31.5 — closer to capitulation territory; -59.4% from high
• Miners the surprise: RIOT/CLSK/MARA all ripping +45-65% 30D despite BTC going sideways — unprecedented divergence this cycle
• MSTR RSI 45.8: right in line with prior estimate; no surprise; weak
• COIN slightly resilient: +0.7% 30D while BTC -3.1%; small divergence but structurally still broken

• Can miners (RIOT RSI 71, CLSK RSI 78) hold their gains if BTC doesn't recover?
• At what BTC price/RSI does the risk-appetite indicator flip from red to yellow?
• Is ETH's underperformance structural (Ethereum losing to Solana/L2 fragmentation) or cyclical?
• Does MSTR RSI 46 break above SMA20 ($173.58) before BTC reclaims SMA20 ($77.5K)?