Last cycle's headline — the miner basket's full recovery from a worst-in-universe read — partially reversed this cycle: RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and BITQ all cooled back down on RSI, and the 7-day pops that drove the recovery (RIOT +23.4%, MARA +13.4%, CLSK +11.4%) all flipped negative. As a risk-appetite signal, that matters: the speculative corner of this universe snapped back fast last cycle and gave some of it right back this cycle, a reminder that one cycle of recovery in the highest-beta names doesn't confirm a turn. BTC and ETH both cooled on RSI while staying death-crossed — BTC's 30-day gain eased slightly to +6.72% (was +7.58%) while ETH's extended further to +21.74% (was +19.48%), still the best of the major coins. The clearest good news: MSTR's 3-month print finally improved to -39.21% from -46.40% — the "structural damage continuing" story from last cycle has genuinely reversed.

Data as-of 2026-07-28 for the coin layer (equity-style trading day) — crypto trades weekends, so this reflects the most recent update on file for each coin. Spot ETFs and crypto equities (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO, MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITQ) also reflect the 2026-07-28 close. Exception: SOL-USD in this file is still stamped 2026-07-25 — three trading days stale relative to the rest of the coin layer; the figures below for SOL are carried over unchanged from last cycle's report and should not be read as fresh. Source: summaries/crypto.json. Prior scan: 2026-07-25-crypto-scan.

The coin layer cooled modestly on RSI this cycle while its structural state stayed unchanged: every major coin remains death-crossed. BTC ($63,533.09, RSI 46.9, was 50.3) eased back from last cycle's healthier reading, with its 30-day gain also easing slightly to +6.72% (was +7.58%) — still -49.7% off its 52-week high and in downtrend regime, no structural change. ETH ($1,911.80, RSI 57.5, was 55.6) held up better, extending its 30-day gain further to +21.74% (was +19.48%) — still the best 30-day print of the major coins, and its 3-month print also improved to -16.49% (was -19.37%). LINK ($8.41, RSI 53.5, 30D +15.84%) held roughly steady, still outpacing BTC. XRP ($1.07, RSI 41.5, 30D +1.9%, was +5.77%) and AVAX ($6.53, RSI 48.2, 30D +1.4%, was +6.43%) both cooled meaningfully from last cycle's gains. ADA ($0.16, RSI 44.1, 30D +14.29%) shows the same 7-day and 30-day figures as last cycle's report — worth reading as a roughly unchanged print rather than a fresh move, consistent with the prior scan's caution about ADA's history of quick reversals. DOT ($0.76, RSI 31.5, 30D -6.17%, was -3.57%) deepened further — still the one coin clearly negative on the month, and now the lowest RSI of the group. DOGE ($0.07, RSI 37.5) again shows 0.00% change across the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day windows — a continuing rounding artifact of its sub-cent price rather than a genuine freeze.

SOL-USD's row in this file is unchanged from last cycle — still stamped 2026-07-25. Its price ($74.37), RSI (44.5), and all return windows are carried over rather than fresh; treat any read on SOL as stale until the next pull refreshes it.

The spot-ETF layer cooled in step with BTC this cycle: IBIT ($36.14, RSI 47.8, 30D +5.73%, was +7.32%), GBTC ($49.44, RSI 47.7, 30D +5.71%, was +7.13%), and BITO ($8.64, RSI 47.3, 30D +5.62%, was +6.88%) all eased back slightly, still 49-62% below their respective highs and in collapse regime. ETHE ($15.48, RSI 56.9, 30D +18.08%, was +17.62%) is the exception, extending its lead over the other three ETF proxies — tracking ETH's continued outperformance of BTC.

The miner basket's recovery from last cycle partially reversed. RIOT ($21.24, RSI 44.8, was 49.1; 30D -23.46%, was -17.83%) gave back some of last cycle's gain — its 7-day print flipped from +23.4% to -1.16%, meaning the sharp pop that drove the earlier recovery has faded. MARA ($11.38, RSI 41.8, was 46.2; 30D -18.89%, was -13.43%) shows the same pattern, its 7-day print flipping from +13.4% to -7.1%. CLSK ($13.48, RSI 44.8, was 50.1; 7D -12.35%, was +11.4%) and BITQ ($23.04, RSI 42.7, was 43.5; 7D -7.17%, was +5.3%) both cooled the same direction. All four retain their golden cross — the long-term structure never broke — but the near-term recovery flagged last cycle did not hold into a second confirming print. This is a meaningfully different read from last cycle's "fully recovered": one cycle of a sharp bounce followed by one cycle of giving it back is not yet evidence of either a durable turn or a resumed decline.

MSTR and COIN are both improving this cycle, a shift from last cycle's divergence. MSTR ($96.16, RSI 44.7, was 39.1; 30D +3.75%, was -2.61%) improved on the month, and its 3-month print — which had deepened for two straight cycles to -46.40% — finally eased to -39.21%, the first genuine improvement on that longer window. It remains death-crossed, collapse regime, -76.8% off its 52-week high, so this is an easing of damage, not a reversal. COIN ($167.90, RSI 53.3, was 46.7; 30D +10.72%, was +5.45%) extended its price improvement further, still in downtrend regime and death-crossed.

As a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle's central lesson is that the miner basket's recovery did not hold into a second cycle. Speculative, high-beta crypto-equities moving first and fastest was last cycle's clearest signal of renewed risk tolerance — this cycle shows that same cohort giving some of it back, which argues for treating the earlier move as a bounce to confirm rather than a confirmed turn. MSTR's 3-month improvement is the more durable-looking positive this cycle, since it reflects a longer window rather than a single sharp week.

regime tags (collapse/downtrend/pullback) describe structure, not a trade call — every major coin and ETF proxy remains collapse or downtrend this cycle, unchanged from last scan. The miner basket's partial reversal is the cycle's central tension: RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and BITQ all held their golden cross through the swing in both directions, meaning the long-term structure hasn't changed even as the near-term recovery faded. Treat that as distinct from MSTR, whose 3-month improvement reflects a longer, arguably more durable window than the miners' single-week pop-and-fade. As a risk-appetite framing: watch whether the miner basket's next print resumes deteriorating or re-recovers — one cycle of give-back after one cycle of recovery is genuinely ambiguous, not a confirmed direction either way.

ETH continues to outpace BTC on the month (+21.74% vs +6.72%), extending last cycle's lead rather than narrowing it — the clearest alt-strength signal in the coin layer this cycle. LINK held roughly steady, still ahead of BTC. XRP and AVAX both cooled meaningfully from last cycle's gains, and DOT deepened further to become both the lowest-RSI and most-30D-negative coin tracked. This is a narrower alt picture than last cycle's broad-based bounce — not a clean alt-season signal, and arguably less broad than it was three sessions ago.

IBIT, GBTC, and BITO all cooled slightly in step with BTC's own pullback; ETHE extended its lead, tracking ETH's continued outperformance. No independent flow signal is visible beyond spot-price tracking — the ETF layer simply mirrors its underlying coin.

Partially reversed. RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and BITQ all cooled on RSI this cycle after last cycle's full recovery from a worst-in-universe read; the 7-day pops that drove that recovery all flipped negative. All four retain their golden cross, so the long-term structure hasn't broken — but one cycle of recovery followed by one cycle of giving it back is genuinely ambiguous, not confirmation of a durable turn.

Both are improving this cycle, a shift from last cycle's divergence. MSTR's 3-month print eased for the first time after two straight cycles of deepening — a longer-window signal, arguably more durable than the miners' single-week swing. COIN's price improvement extended further, though its regime remains downtrend and death-crossed.

DOT's -84.4% and ADA's -84.2% from their 52-week highs remain the widest reference points in the coin layer. RIOT's -30.0% is the narrowest in the equities tier even after this cycle's pullback — a reminder that distance-from-high and the near-term RSI swing are separate signals here.

The miner basket's recovery not holding into a second cycle is this cycle's central risk-appetite lesson — speculative, high-beta crypto-equities moved first last cycle, and this cycle shows some of that move fading rather than extending. Read this as evidence that the earlier bounce was a bounce to confirm, not a confirmed turn. MSTR's 3-month improvement is a separate, longer-window positive that doesn't depend on the miners' near-term swing holding.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries as of the 2026-07-28 close (SOL-USD stamped 2026-07-25, stale — see caveat above) — crypto.