Crypto Scan — Crypto Equities And ETFs Sold Off Friday While Coins Ticked Up Over The Weekend Bar, MSTR/MARA/CLSK/BITO All Cross Back Above Their 200 Days, DOGE Pops 12.5% With No Sourced Driver Yet

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Crypto Scan — Crypto Equities And ETFs Sold Off Friday While Coins Ticked Up Over The Weekend Bar, MSTR/MARA/CLSK/BITO All Cross Back Above Their 200 Days, DOGE Pops 12.5% With No Sourced Driver Yet

raw scan snapshot — prices as of scan date, not live 52 rows · screens, not recommendations event statusconfirmedprior scanresearch/scans/2026-08-28-crypto-scan.md

This scan carries a genuine, expected split basis, not a data problem: the nine coins are priced as of the 2026-09-05 (Saturday) bar because crypto trades weekends, while the spot ETFs and crypto equities are priced as of the 2026-09-04 (Friday) close — the last session before the weekend. Read as a risk-appetite gauge rather than a trading signal, this cycle shows a real divergence across that date split: 9 of the 11 spot-ETF and crypto-equity names closed red on Friday (all four ETFs — IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO — plus five of seven equities), computed directly from crypto.json, while all nine coins printed flat-to-green on Saturday's bar (median change1d +0.71%, computed from the same file) — a Friday risk-off session in the equity-market-hours crypto proxies sitting ahead of a firmer weekend tape in the coins themselves. The bigger structural story sits in the crypto-equity cohort: MSTR, MARA, CLSK, and BITO all crossed back above their 200-day averages this cycle, upgrading MSTR's regime from downtrend to pullback (vs-SMA200 +2.7%, was -9.7%), MARA's and CLSK's from collapse to pullback (MARA vs-SMA200 +3.6%, was -2.8%; CLSK +1.3%, was -7%), and BITO's from downtrend to up (+3.4%, was -0.5%). DOGE popped +12.5% on the weekend bar — the largest single-name move in this scan — crossing back above its own 200-day (vs-SMA200 +2.4%, was -9.5%); this desk's DOGE news receipt was fetched 2026-09-04, before this specific move, so no post-move check is available and the cause is unresolved. RIOT and HOOD both extended sharply — RIOT's 7-day print reached +14.85%, one-year to +65.65% (was +37.61%); HOOD's one-year flipped to a solidly positive +18.66% from a barely-positive +0.55%. Every coin's one-year return stays negative (BTC -30.94%, ETH -46.67%, SOL -57.31%, XRP -53.47%, ADA -76.4%, DOGE -67.86%, AVAX -74.57%, DOT -79.17%, LINK -51.02%) — the equity-side recovery has not repaired a year of coin-side underperformance.

All ETF and equity entries carry the 2026-09-04 settled session. All coin entries carry a 2026-09-05 bar — this split is expected (crypto trades weekends) and is labeled throughout, not a data-quality flag. Source: crypto. Prior scan: 2026-08-28-crypto-scan (2026-08-28 close, uniform basis).


Quick Snapshot

Signal Reading
Overall 🟡 A genuine date-split cycle — Friday's crypto-equity/ETF session was risk-off (9 of 11 red) while the Saturday coin bar ticked up broadly; underneath that, four crypto-equity/ETF names crossed back above their 200-days
Friday session (ETFs + equities): risk-off 9 of 11 names red — all four spot ETFs plus 5 of 7 equities — computed directly from `crypto.json`
Saturday bar (coins): firmer All nine coins printed flat-to-green, median change1d +0.71%
Four names cross back above their 200-day MSTR (-9.7%→+2.7%), MARA (-2.8%→+3.6%), CLSK (-7%→+1.3%), BITO (-0.5%→+3.4%) — three regime upgrades out of `downtrend`/`collapse`
DOGE's outsized pop +12.5% on the weekend bar, crossing back above its 200-day; news receipt predates the move — cause unresolved
RIOT and HOOD extend sharply RIOT 1Y +37.61%→+65.65%; HOOD 1Y +0.55%→+18.66%
Every coin still negative on the year BTC -30.94% (shallowest), DOT -79.17% (deepest) — the recovery hasn't repaired a year of underperformance
Key insight Read as a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle is genuinely mixed rather than one-directional: a Friday risk-off tape in the equity-hours crypto proxies, a firmer weekend coin bar, and a real structural repair (four 200-day crossovers) running underneath both

Price Table

Coins (2026-09-05 bar — crypto trades weekends)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 30D 1Y vs 52wk High vs SMA200 Regime Note
BTC-USD $79,701.73 66.6 +0.04% +1.86% +24.03% -30.94% -36.84% +14.4% pullback Cooled from RSI 68.9; shallowest 1Y deficit in the coin tier, still widened slightly
ETH-USD $2,458.17 62.9 +0.09% +0.02% +29.24% -46.67% -48.39% +20.7% pullback Cooled from RSI 68.5, roughly steady otherwise
SOL-USD $102.69 64.4 +0.73% -2.80% +41.49% -57.31% -59.44% +24.8% pullback Cooled sharply from RSI 73.6; 1Y deficit widened from -48.47%
XRP-USD $1.41 61.1 +0.71% +0.71% +36.89% -53.47% -55.66% +10.7% pullback Cooled from RSI 64.4, roughly steady
ADA-USD $0.21 56.3 0% +5.00% +5.00% -76.4% -77.89% -4.1% downtrend Still below its 200-day but gap narrowed from -9.8%
DOGE-USD $0.09 61.1 +12.5% 0% +28.57% -67.86% -70.97% +2.4% pullback Crossed back above its 200-day; largest single-name move this scan, cause unresolved
AVAX-USD $7.50 59.7 +1.63% +2.32% +16.64% -74.57% -79.11% -7% downtrend Still below its 200-day, gap narrowed from -10.7%
DOT-USD $0.90 59.8 0% +5.88% +9.76% -79.17% -81.52% -18.9% downtrend Deepest 1Y deficit in the coin tier, gap narrowed from -24.6%
LINK-USD $11.82 65.3 +1.55% +3.14% +44.50% -51.02% -53.79% +31.5% pullback Widest 200-day cushion in the coin tier, extended from +27.8%

Spot ETFs (2026-09-04 close)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 30D 1Y vs SMA200 Regime Note
IBIT $45.23 67.3 -2.42% +2.98% +23.11% -27.46% +6.7% pullback Improved from -30.95%/+2.9%
GBTC $61.73 67.3 -2.39% +2.90% +22.99% -28.41% +6.1% pullback Improved from -31.77%/+2.5%
ETHE $19.76 67.1 -2.42% +0.71% +27.90% -43.93% +6.0% up Cooled out of `parabolic` (RSI was 76.1) while improving on 1Y/200-day
BITO $10.74 66.4 -2.45% +2.78% +22.46% -43.29% +3.4% up Crossed back above its 200-day, regime upgraded from `downtrend`

Crypto Equities (2026-09-04 close)

Ticker Price RSI 1D 7D 1Y vs SMA200 GC/DC Regime Note
MSTR $142.80 66.2 -1.39% +12.08% -56.41% +2.7% DC pullback Crossed back above its 200-day, regime upgraded from `downtrend`
COIN $184.64 56.4 -4.18% +3.35% -39.82% -4.2% DC downtrend Improved from -8.6% but still below its 200-day
MARA $11.31 52.4 -2.50% +6.00% -25.15% +3.6% GC pullback Crossed back above its 200-day, regime upgraded from `collapse`
RIOT $21.80 55.5 +3.12% +14.85% +65.65% +16.8% GC pullback Sharp extension from +37.61% 1Y
CLSK $12.69 51.4 +0.87% +8.75% +39.76% +1.3% GC pullback Crossed back above its 200-day, regime upgraded from `collapse`
BITQ $26.62 60 -0.60% +8.29% +35.13% +15.5% GC pullback Extended from +21.47% 1Y
HOOD $122.11 65.9 -2.09% +17.07% +18.66% +28.4% GC pullback One-year flipped from barely positive (+0.55%) to solidly positive

Tier Analysis

BTC Dominance & Momentum (is it alt season?)

BTC's own 7-day print (+1.86%) sits inside the same broad range as most alts this cycle — SOL -2.80%, ADA +5.00%, DOGE 0%, AVAX +2.32%, DOT +5.88%, LINK +3.14%, ETH +0.02%, XRP +0.71% — with no clean alt-season rotation visible on the week. On the one-year window, BTC's -30.94% deficit remains the shallowest in the entire coin tier by a wide margin, even as it widened slightly from -28.57% as the trailing window rolled forward. Every alt still underperforms BTC by a wide margin over the past year (DOT -79.17%, ADA -76.4%, AVAX -74.57%, DOGE -67.86%, SOL -57.31%, XRP -53.47%, LINK -51.02%, ETH -46.67%). SOL is the coin that deteriorated most on the one-year window this cycle (-48.47%→-57.31%), while ADA, AVAX, and DOT all narrowed their 200-day gaps even though their one-year deficits stayed among the widest in the tier — a split between short-term repair and still-deep long-term damage.

ETF Flows

All four spot-BTC/ETH proxies (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO) improved on both their one-year deficit and their 200-day cushion this cycle, with BITO's the most consequential change — its regime upgraded from downtrend to up as vs-SMA200 crossed from -0.5% to +3.4%. ETHE cooled out of parabolic (RSI 76.1 → 67.1) while its long-horizon fields kept improving, the same "cooling from an extreme without breaking trend" pattern the desk tracks elsewhere in this scan. As in prior scans, this JSON carries no independent flow data — the ETF layer remains a pure price-tracking proxy, and Friday's uniform ~-2.4% one-day move across all four (IBIT -2.42%, GBTC -2.39%, ETHE -2.42%, BITO -2.45%) reads as the ETF wrapper tracking its underlying coin's Friday session in lockstep, not an independent signal.

Miner Health

The miner cohort improved broadly this cycle, and two names crossed real structural lines. MARA ($11.31, RSI 52.4) crossed back above its 200-day (vs-SMA200 +3.6%, was -2.8%) and its regime upgraded from collapse to pullback, with its one-year deficit narrowing to -25.15% from -33.15%. This desk's news pull for MARA (fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) attributes recent strength to "regulatory optimism and Bitcoin's rebound" — a macro-linked, sourced context for the move, not a name-specific catalyst. CLSK ($12.69, RSI 51.4) shows the identical pattern — crossed back above its 200-day (+1.3%, was -7%), regime upgraded to pullback, one-year now +39.76% (was +22.09%). RIOT ($21.80, RSI 55.5) didn't cross a regime line but extended sharply — 7-day +14.85%, one-year +65.65% (was +37.61%), the strongest one-year print in the entire miner cohort. BITQ ($26.62, RSI 60) extended further, one-year +35.13% (was +21.47%). All four miners retain their golden cross, and all four now carry positive one-year returns well ahead of anything in the coin tier itself — the miners' long-horizon picture stays structurally different from the coins they mine, and this cycle that gap widened in the miners' favor.

MSTR/COIN As Bellwethers

The two bellwethers diverged this cycle. MSTR ($142.80, RSI 66.2, 7D +12.08%) crossed back above its 200-day (vs-SMA200 +2.7%, was -9.7%) and its regime upgraded from downtrend to pullback — a genuine structural improvement, with one-year deficit narrowing to -56.41% from -62.43%. COIN ($184.64, RSI 56.4, 7D +3.35%) improved more modestly, its 200-day gap narrowing to -4.2% from -8.6% but staying below the line, regime still downtrend. This desk checked both names' news receipts this session (both fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) — neither surfaces a name-specific catalyst for the week's move; MSTR's pull carries only aggregator quote pages and a routine institutional-holder filing notice, and COIN's carries only quote pages and an old earnings-report link. Both remain death-crossed on the long-run signal and deeply negative on the one-year window despite this cycle's improvement.

Key Levels

Support shelves on record this scan: BTC $76,286.39, ETH $2,388.57, SOL $88.53, AVAX $6.32, LINK $8.95, IBIT $40.15, GBTC $55.13, ETHE $18.50, BITO $8.69, MSTR $134.95, COIN $177.47, MARA $10.51, RIOT $21.30, CLSK $12.23, BITQ $24.98, HOOD $118.10 — XRP, ADA, DOGE, and DOT still carry no support shelf on record. MSTR's price ($142.80) sits within roughly 6% of its own shelf, and RIOT's ($21.80) sits within about 2% of its shelf — the two names in this scan trading closest to a recorded support level. DOT's -81.52% and ADA's -77.89% off their 52-week highs remain the widest drawdowns in the coin tier.

Risk Gauge (RSI extremes, correlation to risk assets)

No coin, ETF, or equity in this universe is oversold this scan — the RSI floor across the entire universe is MARA at 51.4 — and nothing is extended into the euphoric readings flagged in earlier cycles either; the ceiling this scan is LINK and IBIT/GBTC/ETHE in the mid-to-upper 60s. Read purely as a risk-appetite gauge, the genuine divergence this cycle — a red Friday across every spot ETF and most crypto equities, against a green-to-flat Saturday coin bar — is itself the signal worth carrying forward: it does not resolve cleanly into either "risk-on" or "risk-off," and conflating the two sessions into one same-day read would manufacture a false signal in either direction. DOGE's isolated +12.5% pop, with no sourced driver available before this scan's cutoff, is the one reading that stands out as genuinely anomalous rather than part of the broader pattern.


What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-08-28 → 2026-09-04/05)

Change Read
This cycle reintroduces the expected coin/equity date split — coins on 2026-09-05, ETFs/equities on 2026-09-04 Last cycle's scan resolved to a uniform basis; this cycle's split is the normal weekend pattern, not a re-emerged problem
Four names cross back above their 200-day — MSTR -9.7%→+2.7%, MARA -2.8%→+3.6%, CLSK -7%→+1.3%, BITO -0.5%→+3.4% Three regime upgrades out of `downtrend`/`collapse` into `pullback`/`up`
RIOT and HOOD both extend sharply on the year — RIOT +37.61%→+65.65%, HOOD +0.55%→+18.66% Both now show the strongest one-year prints in the crypto-equity cohort
SOL deteriorated on the one-year window — -48.47%→-57.31% The one coin whose long-horizon deficit widened meaningfully this cycle
DOGE popped 12.5% with no sourced driver News receipt predates the move; flagged as unresolved rather than glossed over
ETHE cooled out of `parabolic` — RSI 76.1→67.1 One-year and 200-day cushion both kept improving through the cooldown
BTC's 1Y deficit widened slightly as the shallowest damage in the tier persists — -28.57%→-30.94% Still the least-damaged coin by a wide margin; vs-SMA200 improved to +14.4% from +11.6%

Entry Zones

Ticker Price Zone RSI 1Y Setup
MSTR / MARA / CLSK / BITO $142.80 / $11.31 / $12.69 / $10.74 Confirm the 200-day cross holds 66.2 / 52.4 / 51.4 / 66.4 -56.4% / -25.2% / +39.8% / -43.3% All four crossed back above their 200-day this cycle; a second confirming cycle would matter more than this one alone
DOGE-USD $0.09 Verify the driver before treating as a trend change 61.1 -67.86% +12.5% single-day pop with no sourced cause as of this scan's cutoff
BTC-USD $79,701.73 Shallowest damage in the coin tier, still cooling 66.6 -30.94% Support shelf at $76,286.39; the reference point for the rest of the coin tier
RIOT / HOOD $21.80 / $122.11 Strongest one-year prints in the crypto-equity cohort 55.5 / 65.9 +65.65% / +18.66% Both extended sharply this cycle without a regime-line crossing

Action Matrix

Action Stocks Why
🔍 CONFIRM THE 200-DAY CROSS MSTR, MARA, CLSK, BITO All four crossed back above their 200-day this cycle; one cycle is not yet a confirmed trend
⚠️ VERIFY BEFORE ACTING — UNSOURCED POP DOGE-USD +12.5% single-day move with no corpus source identifying a driver as of this scan's cutoff
🔍 STILL BELOW THE 200-DAY, GAP NARROWING ADA-USD, AVAX-USD, DOT-USD, COIN Improved this cycle but haven't crossed the line yet
🔍 EXTENDING, STRONGEST ONE-YEAR PRINTS IN THE COHORT RIOT, HOOD, BITQ All three widened their one-year lead this cycle without a regime-line change
🔍 COOLED FROM EXTREME, TREND IMPROVING ETHE Regime downgraded from `parabolic`, but 1Y and 200-day both kept improving
🔍 WIDEST LONG-HORIZON DAMAGE, STILL IMPROVING SHORT-TERM DOT-USD, ADA-USD, AVAX-USD Deepest 1Y deficits in the coin tier, though 200-day gaps all narrowed this cycle
🔍 SHALLOWEST DAMAGE IN THE TIER BTC-USD Still the reference point; 1Y deficit widened marginally as the comparison window rolled forward

What To Watch Next

Watch Why it matters
Whether MSTR, MARA, CLSK, and BITO hold above their 200-days into a second confirming cycle Four crossovers in one cycle is a real cluster; one cycle alone doesn't confirm a trend
Whether a news or event receipt surfaces explaining DOGE's +12.5% pop This scan's fetch predates the move; unresolved as of this cutoff
Whether SOL's widening one-year deficit (-57.31%) continues or stabilizes The one coin that deteriorated most on the long-horizon window this cycle
Whether Friday's crypto-equity/ETF risk-off session extends into the next full trading week This scan can't yet tell whether it was a one-day event or the start of something broader
Whether RIOT's and HOOD's extended one-year prints hold or cool Both now carry the strongest one-year reads in the crypto-equity cohort
Whether BTC's shallow one-year deficit (-30.94%) keeps widening or the trend reverses Still the least-damaged name in the coin tier by a wide margin

Sources

  • Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns/regime/1-year change/vs 200-day): pre-computed summary — crypto; ETFs/equities as-of the 2026-09-04 settled session; coins as-of the 2026-09-05 bar (expected weekend split, not staleness).
  • Friday red/green breadth (9 of 11 ETF+equity names red; 9 of 9 coins flat-to-green): computed directly from crypto.json this session.
  • MARA news check: latest (fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) — attributes recent strength to "regulatory optimism and Bitcoin's rebound."
  • MSTR/COIN news check: latest and latest (both fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) — neither surfaces a name-specific catalyst.
  • DOGE news check: latest (fetched 2026-09-04, ok, not stale) — fetch predates the weekend-bar move; no post-move check available.
  • Prior scan for comparison: 2026-08-28-crypto-scan (2026-08-28 close, uniform basis).
9 events

No direct external sources are attached to this read.