Crypto Scan
Crypto Scan
Read as a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle is a genuine reversal from last week's structural repair: MSTR crossed back below its 200-day (vs 200-day -5.1%, was +2.7%) after crossing above it last cycle, and HOOD's one-year return flipped negative again (-4.4%, was +18.66%) — both with no sourced catalyst in this desk's news pulls. Every coin and equity in this scan settled on a uniform 2026-09-11 close this cycle (no weekend date split). Bitcoin's one-year deficit (-33.06%) remains the shallowest in the coin tier by a wide margin, even as it widened slightly from -30.94% last cycle. The miner cohort stayed broadly intact (all four golden-crossed), though RIOT, CLSK, and BITQ all cooled sharply on their one-year comparisons as the trailing window rolled forward.
All entries carry the 2026-09-11 settled session — a uniform basis, unlike last cycle's weekend coin/equity split. Source: crypto. Prior scan: 2026-09-04-crypto-scan.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 A reversal cycle — MSTR's 200-day cross undone, HOOD's 1Y flipped negative again, both without a sourced driver |
| MSTR crosses back below its 200-day | vs 200-day +2.7%→-5.1%, regime downgraded; no fresh catalyst in this desk's pull (fetched 2026-09-04, predates this move) |
| HOOD's 1Y flips negative again | +18.66%→-4.4%; same — no sourced driver checked, pull predates this week |
| BTC's 1Y deficit remains shallowest in the coin tier | -33.06%, widened slightly from -30.94% |
| Miner cohort stays golden-crossed, but 1Y cooled broadly | RIOT +65.65%→+37.19%, BITQ +35.13%→+16.46%, CLSK +39.76%→+34.02% |
| MARA the one miner still improving | 1Y -25.15%→-23.74%, vs 200-day +3.6%→+9.5% |
| Every coin still negative on the year | BTC shallowest (-33.06%), ADA deepest (-76.4%) |
| Key insight | Two structural repairs flagged last cycle (MSTR's 200-day cross, HOOD's 1Y flip) both reversed this cycle with no sourced cause behind either move |
Price Table
Coins
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs 52wk High | vs SMA200 | GC/DC | Trend | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | $77,319.41 | 55.2 | -2.95% | 21.95% | -33.06% | -38.73% | +10.4% | GC | strong-up | Shallowest 1Y deficit in the tier, widened slightly from -30.94% |
| ETH-USD | $2,537.21 | 64.5 | 3.3% | 35.09% | -43.13% | -46.73% | +23.6% | GC | strong-up | 1Y improved from -46.67% |
| SOL-USD | $102.65 | 58.8 | 0.69% | 35.91% | -55.13% | -59.46% | +23.8% | GC | strong-up | 1Y improved from -57.31% |
| XRP-USD | $1.36 | 53.2 | -2.86% | 36% | -55.26% | -57.23% | +6.8% | DC | up | 1Y widened from -53.47%; death-crossed despite positive 200-day cushion |
| ADA-USD | $0.21 | 53 | 0% | 16.67% | -76.4% | -77.89% | -3.3% | DC | weak-up | Unchanged, still below 200-day |
| DOGE-USD | $0.08 | 45.2 | -7.5% | 14.29% | -69.23% | -74.19% | -8.6% | DC | weak-up | 1Y widened from -67.86% |
| AVAX-USD | $7.48 | 52.8 | -0.3% | 18.35% | -74.37% | -79.17% | -6.8% | DC | weak-up | Roughly unchanged |
| DOT-USD | $1.05 | 59.6 | 11.6% | 36.36% | -75.24% | -78.44% | -4.8% | DC | weak-up | 1Y improved from -79.17% but still deepest-tier damage |
| LINK-USD | $11.61 | 53.8 | -1% | 33.91% | -52.55% | -54.61% | +27.6% | GC | strong-up | Widest 200-day cushion in the coin tier |
Spot ETFs
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | GC/DC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | $43.77 | 59.3 | -3.23% | 21.96% | -32.69% | +3.6% | DC | Cooled from RSI 67.3; 200-day cushion compressed from +6.7% |
| GBTC | $59.77 | 59.3 | -3.18% | 21.88% | -33.53% | +3% | DC | Same pattern as IBIT |
| ETHE | $20.42 | 70.1 | 3.34% | 34.96% | -44.04% | +10% | DC | Extended further into overbought (was 67.1); 200-day cushion widened |
| BITO | $10.37 | 58.3 | -3.45% | 21.29% | -47.47% | +0.4% | DC | Cooled from RSI 66.4; cushion compressed to near-flat from +3.4% |
Crypto Equities
| Ticker | Price | RSI | 7D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | GC/DC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | $130.97 | 57 | -8.28% | -59.83% | -5.1% | DC | Crossed back below its 200-day (was +2.7%); no sourced catalyst |
| COIN | $175.26 | 51.6 | -5.08% | -45.9% | -8.4% | DC | 200-day gap widened from -4.2% |
| MARA | $11.98 | 56 | 5.92% | -23.74% | +9.5% | GC | The one miner still improving on both windows |
| RIOT | $21.47 | 53.3 | -1.51% | +37.19% | +14% | GC | 1Y cooled sharply from +65.65% |
| CLSK | $13.67 | 56.3 | 7.72% | +34.02% | +8.6% | GC | 1Y cooled from +39.76% |
| BITQ | $25.82 | 54.9 | -3.01% | +16.46% | +11.6% | GC | 1Y cooled sharply from +35.13% |
| HOOD | $112.57 | 55.8 | -7.81% | -4.4% | +18.3% | GC | 1Y flipped negative again (was +18.66%); no sourced catalyst |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI < 25): None. Oversold (RSI 25-40): None — DOGE (45.2) is the lowest RSI in the entire universe this cycle. Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): Every coin, ETF, and equity in this scan, led by ETHE (70.1, extended) and topped out by RIOT/HOOD in the mid-50s.
BTC Dominance & Momentum (is it alt season?)
BTC's 7-day print (-2.95%) sits in the middle of the alt range this cycle — ETH +3.3%, SOL +0.69%, XRP -2.86%, ADA 0%, DOGE -7.5%, AVAX -0.3%, DOT +11.6%, LINK -1% — no clean alt-season rotation visible on the week. BTC's one-year deficit (-33.06%) remains the shallowest in the entire coin tier by a wide margin, widening slightly from -30.94% last cycle. Every alt still underperforms BTC by a wide margin over the past year (ADA -76.4%, DOT -75.24%, AVAX -74.37%, DOGE -69.23%, SOL -55.13%, XRP -55.26%, LINK -52.55%, ETH -43.13%) — dominance stays with BTC, not a signal of rotation.
ETF Flows
All four spot proxies (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO) cooled on RSI this cycle (IBIT/GBTC/BITO all down from the high-60s into the high-50s), while ETHE pushed the other way into extended territory (RSI 70.1, was 67.1). IBIT and BITO's 200-day cushions both compressed (IBIT +6.7%→+3.6%, BITO +3.4%→+0.4%, nearly flat), while ETHE's widened (+6%→+10%). This JSON carries no independent flow data — the ETF layer remains a pure price-tracking proxy for its underlying coin.
Miner Health
All four miners (MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITQ) retain their golden cross, but the cohort split this cycle: MARA is the one name still improving on both windows (1Y -25.15%→-23.74%, vs 200-day +3.6%→+9.5%), while RIOT (1Y +65.65%→+37.19%), CLSK (+39.76%→+34.02%), and BITQ (+35.13%→+16.46%) all cooled sharply on the one-year comparison as the trailing window rolled forward. None of the four crossed a regime line this cycle — this is a cooling within an intact structure, not a break.
MSTR/COIN As Bellwethers
The two bellwethers moved the same direction this cycle, reversing last cycle's divergence. MSTR ($130.97, RSI 57, 7D -8.28%) crossed back below its 200-day (vs 200-day -5.1%, was +2.7% last cycle) — undoing the structural improvement flagged last cycle. COIN ($175.26, RSI 51.6, 7D -5.08%) stayed below its 200-day and the gap widened further (-8.4%, was -4.2%). This desk checked both names' news receipts this session: both are stale relative to this week's move (fetched 2026-09-04) — MSTR's pull carries only aggregator quote pages and a routine institutional-holder filing notice, no name-specific catalyst for the reversal. Both remain death-crossed on the long-run signal.
Key Levels
Support shelves on record this scan: BTC $70,582.20, ETH $2,388.57, SOL $88.53, AVAX $6.32, DOT $0.82, LINK $8.95, IBIT $40.15, GBTC $55.13, ETHE $18.50, BITO $8.69, MSTR $123.14, COIN $166.51, MARA $11.21, RIOT $20.52, CLSK $12.88, BITQ $24.98, HOOD $76.69 — XRP, ADA, and DOGE still carry no support shelf on record. MSTR's price ($130.97) sits within roughly 6% of its own shelf. DOT's -78.44% and ADA's -77.89% off their 52-week highs remain among the widest drawdowns in the coin tier.
Risk Gauge (RSI extremes, correlation to risk assets)
No coin, ETF, or equity in this universe is oversold this scan — the RSI floor is DOGE at 45.2 — and only ETHE (70.1) sits in extended territory. Read purely as a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle reads neutral rather than euphoric or capitulatory: the notable signal is structural, not RSI-driven — two names that repaired their 200-day/1Y position last cycle (MSTR, HOOD) both reversed this cycle without a sourced catalyst, which is a more informative risk-appetite tell than any single RSI reading this scan carries.
Entry Zones
| Stock | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | Support $70,582.20 / current $77,319.41 | Shallowest 1Y deficit in the coin tier; the reference point for the rest |
| MSTR | Watch $123.14 support before re-entry | Crossed back below its 200-day this cycle with no sourced driver — confirm stabilization first |
| MARA | Support $11.21 / current $11.98 | The one miner improving on both 1Y and 200-day cushion this cycle |
| LINK-USD | Support $8.95 / current $11.61 | Widest 200-day cushion (+27.6%) in the coin tier |
Action Matrix
| Action | Stocks | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 🔒 HOLD | BTC-USD, MARA, LINK-USD | Best long-horizon positioning in their tiers (shallowest 1Y deficit / improving / widest cushion) |
| 🔍 WATCH | MSTR, HOOD | Both reversed structurally this cycle with no sourced cause — confirm direction next cycle before acting |
| 🔍 WATCH | RIOT, CLSK, BITQ | 1Y comparisons cooled sharply as the trailing window rolled; still golden-crossed, not broken |
| ⚠️ AVOID | ADA-USD, AVAX-USD, DOT-USD | Deepest 1Y damage in the coin tier, most still below their 200-day |
What To Watch Next
- MSTR: the 200-day cross reversed with no sourced cause — is this a single-cycle wobble or the start of a real reversal? Watch the $123.14 support shelf.
- HOOD: 1Y flipped negative for a second time in this tracked window — same question, no catalyst identified yet.
- RIOT/CLSK/BITQ: all three cooled sharply on 1Y this cycle purely from the trailing-window roll — confirm this isn't masking a real deceleration in price action itself.
- Risk-appetite read: with no coin, ETF, or equity oversold this cycle (DOGE at 45.2 is the floor) and nothing extended beyond ETHE's 70.1, this scan's risk-gauge reading is neutral — neither a capitulation nor a euphoria signal.
Sources
- crypto (2026-09-11)
- latest, latest, latest (all fetched 2026-09-04, predate this cycle's moves)
- 2026-09-04-crypto-scan (prior scan, comparison basis)
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.