Crypto Scan
Crypto Scan
Bitcoin is flat on the week and still 18.3% above its 200-day, but the risk appetite underneath it is thinning: the miners gave back a lot this week (Riot, Marathon and CleanSpark all down 8-14% over seven days), Dogecoin and Polkadot lead the coin tier lower, and every coin remains negative over twelve months. Read as a risk gauge, this is a late-cycle bounce that is holding its trend lines but losing breadth, with Bitcoin the anchor and the periphery fading.
Coin prices are the latest 24/7 market bar (dated October 3 on the crypto calendar, not a US settled close); spot ETFs and equities are the settled 2026-10-02 close, per the desk's summaries. Comparisons to the prior edition use the September 25 edition in direction only. This scan states where no dated item covers a move; it does not infer causes.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Trend intact, breadth fading: coins above 200-days, miners and alts selling off on the week |
| Bitcoin | $84,455.48, -0.47% on the latest bar, +0.06% on the week, +3.92% on the month, RSI 62.7, +18.3% vs its 200-day, 1Y -30.93% |
| Biggest movers | DOGE -10.00% on the week, DOT -6.45%; AVAX the strongest on the month (+43.48%), DOT +30.34%; ADA and LINK both -4.00%/-3.96% on the latest bar |
| Structure | Every coin except DOGE and DOT holds a golden cross; every coin sits above its 200-day |
| Still broken on the year | Every coin is negative over twelve months: BTC -30.93% (shallowest), ADA -72.41% and DOT -73.15% (deepest) |
| Miners | MARA -10.52%, RIOT -14.22%, CLSK -8.67% on the week — all below their 20-days |
| Caveat | ZCSH (1Y +953.87%), BHYP, HYPG, ETHB and GLNK are not placed in the formal tiers: thin history and no verified corpus identity for most of them. ETF flows and NAV premiums are not in this source |
| Key insight | Price is holding while participation drains from the edges first — the same order in which risk appetite typically leaves |
What's Going On
Bitcoin held, the alts did not. BTC closed $84,455.48 (RSI 62.7), +0.06% on the week against Dogecoin -10.00%, Polkadot -6.45%, XRP -3.27% and Solana -2.36%. On the month it is the reverse: AVAX +43.48% and DOT +30.34% are far ahead of BTC (+3.92%). That is the pattern of a high-beta bounce unwinding at the edges, not a Bitcoin breakdown.
Solana cooled while staying structurally strong. SOL closed $118.57, RSI 62.4, +38.4% vs its 200-day, 1Y -49.11%. Chainlink is +45.2% above its 200-day, the widest cushion in the tier, though it fell 3.96% on the latest bar.
Miners are the weak link. Riot ($19.73, RSI 42.0, -14.22% on the week), Marathon ($11.23, -10.52%) and CleanSpark ($12.74, -8.67%) all sit below their 20-days but just above their 200-days (+2.0%, +2.4%, +1.3%). The group's cushion over its long average is nearly gone.
The bellwethers diverge. Strategy (MSTR) closed $160.01, +29.89% on the month, RSI 62.6 — a sharp bounce — yet it remains in a death cross with a 1Y of -54.59%. Coinbase is -1.3% against its 200-day, down 6.21% on the week and -3.32% on the day; Robinhood is -5.58% on the week at $112.74.
ETF and fund wrappers track the coins. IBIT ($47.73, RSI 63.7), GBTC (63.5) and BITO (62.6) mirror Bitcoin; ETHE follows ether down 1.20% on the day.
The unverified entrants. ZCSH closed $34.04, -17.30% on the week and +56.94% on the month with a year of +953.87% and a +168.3% cushion; GLNK fell 6.09% on the day. Both are extreme movers with no verified corpus record of what they hold; the desk has no news file for ZCSH. Treat as speculative, unverified.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-09-25 → 2026-10-02)
| Change | Read |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin roughly flat in price — $84,455.48 versus about $84K last edition; 1Y deficit widened to -30.93% | Price flat while the deficit widened, which implies a higher year-ago base rather than a price drop |
| Solana momentum cooled — RSI now 62.4, no longer near overbought | Cushion over its 200-day shrank to +38.4% |
| Miners reversed lower — MARA -10.52%, RIOT -14.22% on the week | Last edition's cohort was already giving back gains; the slide deepened |
| DOGE fell 10.00% on the week | Last edition's recovery reversed; death cross intact |
| MSTR's 30-day bounce — +29.89% | Still death-crossed |
| HOOD eased to $112.74 | Last edition near $119; RSI now 49.8 |
How To Read The Board
Crypto is read here as a risk-appetite gauge first and an asset class second. When Bitcoin, alts, ETFs and equities move together, risk appetite is broad; when the high-beta edges (alts, miners) lead the move, it is narrow and fragile. Coin bars are 24/7; funds and equities are US-session closes. No ETF flow or premium data exists in this source.
Coins
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Cross | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | $84,455.48 | 62.7 | +2.9% | -0.47% | +0.06% | +3.92% | -30.93% | +18.3% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ETH-USD | $2,666.56 | 58.6 | +1.5% | -1.44% | -1.06% | +6.32% | -40.94% | +26.1% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| SOL-USD | $118.57 | 62.4 | +4.9% | +0.14% | -2.36% | +14.03% | -49.11% | +38.4% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| XRP-USD | $1.48 | 54.6 | +1.9% | -0.67% | -3.27% | +2.07% | -51.32% | +15.7% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ADA-USD | $0.24 | 53.9 | +2.8% | -4.00% | -4.00% | +9.09% | -72.41% | +12.5% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| DOGE-USD | $0.09 | 50.3 | -0.6% | +0.00% | -10.00% | +0.00% | -65.38% | +3.2% | DC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| AVAX-USD | $10.79 | 62.5 | +9.6% | -1.91% | -0.64% | +43.48% | -65.59% | +33.7% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| DOT-USD | $1.16 | 54.2 | +1.9% | -1.69% | -6.45% | +30.34% | -73.15% | +9.1% | DC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| LINK-USD | $13.81 | 57.3 | +6.4% | -3.96% | -2.40% | +16.64% | -38.68% | +45.2% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Spot ETFs
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Cross | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | $47.73 | 63.7 | +3.7% | -0.48% | +0.34% | +9.00% | -30.59% | +13.9% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| GBTC | $65.11 | 63.5 | +3.7% | -0.50% | +0.32% | +8.88% | -31.41% | +13.3% | DC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ETHE | $21.43 | 61.7 | +2.9% | -1.20% | -0.97% | +11.21% | -42.14% | +17.4% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| BITO | $11.28 | 62.6 | +3.4% | -0.44% | +0.09% | +8.46% | -43.63% | +11.3% | DC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Crypto Equities
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Cross | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | $160.01 | 62.6 | +8.3% | -0.31% | +0.88% | +29.89% | -54.59% | +17.7% | DC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| COIN | $183.00 | 49.5 | -1.5% | -3.32% | -6.21% | +4.60% | -50.82% | -1.3% | DC | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
| MARA | $11.23 | 44.8 | -6.7% | +0.18% | -10.52% | +7.26% | -40.23% | +2.4% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| RIOT | $19.73 | 42.0 | -9.9% | +0.61% | -14.22% | +5.85% | +2.49% | +2.0% | GC | 🟢 Intact |
| CLSK | $12.74 | 45.9 | -5.6% | +1.76% | -8.67% | +12.44% | -15.85% | +1.3% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| BITQ | $25.26 | 46.3 | -3.9% | -0.71% | -6.44% | +3.57% | -4.68% | +7.9% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| HOOD | $112.74 | 49.8 | -2.8% | +1.43% | -5.58% | +5.37% | -22.62% | +19.5% | GC | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| BKKT | $7.75 | 46.1 | -6.0% | +0.52% | -8.82% | +4.31% | -82.35% | -19.1% | DC | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year |
Unverified entrants (price only; not a recommendation)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Cross | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCSH | $34.04 | 54.3 | -4.8% | -3.08% | -17.30% | +56.94% | +953.87% | +168.3% | GC | 🟡 Unverified; thin history |
| BHYP | $48.76 | 54.1 | +0.1% | -1.34% | -5.15% | +7.12% | n/a | n/a | — | 🟡 Unverified; thin history |
| HYPG | $30.71 | 54.1 | +0.1% | -1.22% | -5.30% | +7.08% | n/a | n/a | — | 🟡 Unverified; thin history |
| ETHB | $34.32 | 61.7 | +2.9% | -1.27% | -0.95% | +11.36% | n/a | n/a | — | 🟡 Unverified; thin history |
| GLNK | $12.02 | 58.3 | +6.7% | -6.09% | -2.44% | +22.15% | -52.88% | +36.4% | GC | 🟡 Unverified; thin history |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): None.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): None.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): all names. Highest: BTC (62.7), SOL (62.4), AVAX (62.5), IBIT (63.7). Lowest: RIOT (42.0), MARA (44.8), CLSK (45.9). Nothing at or above 70.
BTC Dominance & Momentum
BTC is the anchor: RSI 62.7, +3.92% on the month. Alt season is not confirmed — ranked by seven-day return the weakest are DOGE-USD (-10.00%), DOT-USD (-6.45%), ADA-USD (-4.00%), even though AVAX (+43.48%) and DOT (+30.34%) are far ahead on the month. Strong 30-day alt prints that fade over seven days read as a rally losing breadth.
ETF Flows
No flow or premium/discount data in this source — only price. IBIT ($47.73) and GBTC ($65.11) track Bitcoin; GBTC holds a death cross while IBIT holds a golden cross, a minor divergence in long averages. ETHE ($21.43) follows ether; BITO ($11.28) holds a death cross. Flow data is a missing-data request, not inferred.
Miner Health
MARA, RIOT and CLSK all trail the coin tier on the week. Profitability is not in this source; the tape says the cushion over their 200-days is thin (RIOT +2.0%, MARA +2.4%, CLSK +1.3%). RIOT's 1Y is +2.49%, the only non-negative year among the miners; CLSK is -15.85% and MARA -40.23%.
MSTR / COIN As Bellwethers
MSTR ($160.01) is +17.7% above its 200-day but -56.19% from its high with a 1Y of -54.59%; its 50-day ($123.61) sits under its 200-day ($135.99). COIN ($183.00) is -1.3% against its 200-day, a 1Y of -50.82%, and fell 6.21% on the week — the weaker of the two.
Key Levels
BTC-USD: pivot $87,363.76, 50-day $78,122.06, nearest support shelf $79,138.49, 200-day $71,371.03. ETH-USD: pivot $2,805.50, support shelf $2,386.37, 200-day $2,113.96. Both are -33.08% and -43.92% from their 52-week highs.
Risk Gauge
🟡 Neutral-to-fading. No RSI extremes in either direction; every coin remains above its 200-day; the year-over-year picture is negative across the board; miners and unverified high-beta funds show the fastest give-back. Correlation to broader risk assets is not computed in this source: for context, the Nasdaq-100 proxy QQQM sits near its 52-week high while crypto sits 33-74% below its highs — the two are not moving together.
What To Watch Next
- Does BTC hold its support shelf near $79,138.49 and the 50-day $78,122.06?
- Miner cushions. RIOT, MARA and CLSK sit within roughly 1% to 2.5% of their 200-days.
- DOGE and DOT death crosses — do they resolve?
- ZCSH and the other unverified funds need identity verification before any use.
- ETF flow and premium data — missing; needed to read IBIT versus GBTC.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed desk summary, as of the 2026-10-02 close (crypto).
Desk price summaries for the crypto universe (26 rows; coin bars dated 2026-10-03 on the 24/7 calendar, funds and equities 2026-10-02); September 25 edition of this scan. Bitcoin news file last pulled 2026-09-19, so news was not pulled for this week's moves; stock-events and the October 1-2 captures checked; no cause for any move is asserted.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.