Crypto Scan
Crypto Scan
Crypto equities took the week's damage while the coin held: Bitcoin slipped only 1.22% (RSI 46.6), still 12.7% above its 200-day, but the miners fell 19% to 22% to RSI 22.9, 23.3 and 25.4 — the first sub-25 readings on this board — Strategy lost 11.35% and now sits 0.9% above its 200-day, and all 26 rows fell on the week. Read as a risk gauge, the tape coupled crypto equities to the Nasdaq-100 selloff (QQQM down 5.54%) more than to Bitcoin: appetite left through equity beta first, not through the coin.
Coin prices are an intraday snapshot of the 24/7 market taken the afternoon of October 16 (Pacific), not a settled close; funds and equities are the settled Friday, October 16 close, per the price summaries (Yahoo Finance for coins, Polygon for funds and equities). Comparisons to the October 9 scan are direction-only. Moves are described, not explained.
Quick Snapshot
| Signal | Reading |
|---|---|
| Overall | 🟡 Bitcoin's trend intact; the equities around it in a washout — miners in capitulation territory, Strategy on its 200-day |
| Bitcoin | $81541.67, -1.22% on the week, RSI 46.6, -2.4% vs its 20-day, 12.7% vs its 200-day, -24.63% 1Y |
| Weekly movers | Nothing rose. Worst: MARA (-21.97%), CLSK (-20%), RIOT (-18.77%), BKKT (-18.75%); mildest: IBIT (-0.86%), GBTC (-0.99%), BITO (-1.09%), BTC-USD (-1.22%) |
| Structure | Eight of nine coins hold above their 200-days (DOGE-USD -8.3% vs its 200-day). MARA, RIOT, CLSK, COIN, BKKT and BITQ are under theirs; MSTR is 0.9% vs its 200-day |
| Still broken on the year | Every coin is negative over twelve months, from BTC-USD (-24.63%) to ADA-USD (-65.25%) |
| Caveat | No fund-flow, dominance or on-chain data in this source. ZCSH, BHYP, HYPG, ETHB and GLNK sit outside the formal tiers: thin history or no issuer-verified identity |
| Key insight | The selling reached the coin last, and mildly. Bitcoin above its 200-day says this is not capitulation in the asset; the miners' sub-25 RSI says the equities are already there |
What's Going On
Bitcoin held its long trend; alts fell several times as far. BTC traded at $81,541.67 in the afternoon snapshot (down 1.22% on the week, up 7.08% over 30 days), RSI 46.6 (from 49.4), 2.4% under its 20-day ($83,563.45) and just above its 50-day ($81,252.68), 12.7% above its 200-day, with a one-year loss of 24.63%. Ether traded at $2,410.44 (down 3.02%, RSI 38), 6.8% under its 20-day and 12.4% above its 200-day. XRP (down 7.14%, RSI 34.9), Polkadot (down 7.26% — last week's only gainer), Cardano (down 7.74%), Dogecoin (down 6.12%, 8.3% under its 200-day), Solana (down 4.78%), Chainlink (down 4.29%) and Avalanche (down 3.77%) all fell harder than Bitcoin, though Avalanche is still up 33.2% over 30 days. Cause not checked.
The miners reached capitulation readings. Marathon closed $7.53 (RSI 22.9, down 21.97%), 31.2% under its 200-day; CleanSpark $8.40 (RSI 23.3, down 20%), 33% under its 200-day; Riot $13.72 (RSI 25.4, down 18.77%), 29.6% under its 200-day. All three fell 9.6% to 11.5% on Friday alone. A week earlier each sat near RSI 32 and 12% to 17% under its 200-day. MARA and CLSK now carry death crosses (50-day under 200-day); Riot's 50-day ($20.04) is still above its 200-day ($19.50). One-year returns: Marathon -62.85%, CleanSpark -57.98%, Riot -29.82%. No miner has a support shelf below price in the summary.
Strategy lost its cushion; Coinbase stayed under. Strategy closed $136.83 (down 11.35%; Friday down 9.56%), RSI 42.6 (from 55.4), 12.5% under its 20-day and 0.9% above its 200-day ($135.60; it was 13.6% above on October 9), with a death cross whose 50-day ($134.92) sits barely under that line, and a one-year loss of 51.79%. Coinbase closed $173.16 (down 3.47%; Friday down 5.79%), RSI 45, 5% under its 200-day, with a one-year loss of 47.57%. Robinhood (down 9.31%, RSI 36.8) holds 5.4% above its 200-day; the equity ETF BITQ (down 11.61%, RSI 32.8) slipped to 9.3% under its 200-day; Bakkt is down 18.75% at RSI 27.6.
Wrappers tracked their coins. IBIT (down 0.86%) and GBTC (down 0.99%) moved with Bitcoin's 1.22% decline, ETHE (down 2.57%) with ether's 3.02%, BITO down 1.09%; the windows differ slightly because coin bars run 24/7. Price cannot show creations or redemptions. ZCSH closed $30.53 (down 4.65%) with a one-year gain of 586.07% and 120.6% above its 200-day; the October 9 scan reported its Zcash-ETF identity from aggregator news only, so it stays outside the formal tiers. BHYP, HYPG and ETHB have under a year of history; GLNK is down 3.72%.
What Changed Since Prior Scan (2026-10-09 → 2026-10-16)
- Every row fell. October 9: only DOT rose. Bitcoin's decline narrowed (from 2.55% to 1.22%) while equities' widened
- Miners went from RSI ~32 to 22.9-25.4. MARA and CLSK are the first readings under 25; both flipped from golden to death crosses
- MSTR's cushion over its 200-day shrank. 13.6% above to 0.9%; RSI 55.4 to 42.6
- BITQ lost its 200-day. Last edition it was above (9.3% under now)
- Bitcoin's cushion narrowed. 14.6% above its 200-day to 12.7%; RSI 49.4 to 46.6
- Ether's momentum is unchanged. RSI 38 both weeks, but the week's loss was smaller (3.02% from 7.15%)
- The equity side caught down. October 9: QQQM near its high while crypto fell. Now QQQM is down 5.54% (from the ETF summary)
- DOT gave back its week. Last week's only gainer is down 7.26%
How To Read The Board
Crypto is read as a risk-appetite gauge first and an asset class second. When Bitcoin, alts, wrappers and equities move together, risk appetite is broad; when the high-beta edges (alts, miners) lead the move, it is narrow and fragile. Coin bars are 24/7 and the latest one is still forming; funds and equities are US-session closes, so their seven-day windows differ slightly from the coins'. No ETF flow, premium or dominance data exists in this source.
Coins
All fund and equity rows as of 2026-10-16; coin rows carry the same date as an intraday snapshot.
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | $81541.67 | 46.6 | -2.4% | -0.73% | -1.22% | 7.08% | -24.63% | 12.7% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ETH-USD | $2410.44 | 38 | -6.8% | -1.23% | -3.02% | -0.24% | -38.11% | 12.4% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| SOL-USD | $103.92 | 38.1 | -8.8% | -1.34% | -4.78% | 5.35% | -43.73% | 19% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| XRP-USD | $1.3 | 34.9 | -9.3% | -2.26% | -7.14% | 0% | -44.21% | 1.6% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| ADA-USD | $0.22 | 42.5 | -8.7% | -2.44% | -7.74% | 14.28% | -65.25% | 5.5% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| DOGE-USD | $0.08 | 36.4 | -10.2% | -1.15% | -6.12% | -0.92% | -57.47% | -8.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| AVAX-USD | $9.95 | 47.4 | -6.9% | -0.8% | -3.77% | 33.2% | -52.53% | 21.9% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| DOT-USD | $1.15 | 49.3 | -3.2% | 0% | -7.26% | 12.75% | -61.92% | 9.8% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| LINK-USD | $12.26 | 42.4 | -9.4% | -1.53% | -4.29% | 10.95% | -29.58% | 25.1% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Spot and Futures Funds
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBIT | $46.15 | 50.1 | -2.7% | -0.94% | -0.86% | 7.23% | -24.87% | 10.4% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| GBTC | $62.91 | 49.9 | -2.8% | -0.98% | -0.99% | 7.08% | -25.81% | 9.8% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| ETHE | $19.34 | 40.8 | -7.7% | -1.53% | -2.57% | 0.05% | -39.2% | 7.1% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
| BITO | $10.88 | 49.1 | -3% | -1.09% | -1.09% | 6.46% | -39.05% | 8.1% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year |
Crypto Equities
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSTR | $136.83 | 42.6 | -12.5% | -9.56% | -11.35% | 8.44% | -51.79% | 0.9% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, death cross |
| COIN | $173.16 | 45 | -7.2% | -5.79% | -3.47% | 5.26% | -47.57% | -5% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, death cross |
| MARA | $7.53 | 22.9 | -31% | -9.6% | -21.97% | -31.79% | -62.85% | -31.2% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, death cross, capitulation reading |
| RIOT | $13.72 | 25.4 | -29.8% | -11.48% | -18.77% | -32.58% | -29.82% | -29.6% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, oversold |
| CLSK | $8.4 | 23.3 | -30.6% | -10.16% | -20% | -34.32% | -57.98% | -33% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, death cross, capitulation reading |
| BITQ | $21.39 | 32.8 | -15.1% | -6.8% | -11.61% | -12.16% | -24.89% | -9.3% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| HOOD | $98.87 | 36.8 | -12.3% | -4.92% | -9.31% | -5.32% | -24.78% | 5.4% | 🟡 Above 200-day, negative year, near oversold |
| BKKT | $5.59 | 27.6 | -26.2% | -5.25% | -18.75% | -22.04% | -85.72% | -40.5% | 🔴 Below 200-day, negative year, death cross, oversold |
Unverified Entrants (price only; not a recommendation)
| Ticker | Price | RSI | vs SMA20 | 1D% | 7D% | 30D% | 1Y | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZCSH | $30.53 | 45.3 | -14.7% | -7.03% | -4.65% | -11.53% | 586.07% | 120.6% | 🟡 Identity aggregator-reported only |
| BHYP | $44.51 | 42.3 | -9.8% | -3.55% | -5.16% | 0.66% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Unverified; short history |
| HYPG | $27.93 | 42 | -9.9% | -3.69% | -5.06% | 0.47% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Unverified; short history |
| ETHB | $31 | 41.1 | -7.7% | -1.68% | -2.64% | 0.19% | n/a | n/a | 🟡 Unverified; short history |
| GLNK | $10.86 | 46.1 | -8.2% | -2.07% | -3.72% | 12.42% | -55.12% | 22.9% | 🟡 Unverified |
Tier Analysis
Capitulation (RSI below 25): MARA (22.9), CLSK (23.3) — both under their 200-days by more than 30%.
Oversold (RSI 25-40): RIOT (25.4), BKKT (27.6), BITQ (32.8), XRP-USD (34.9), DOGE-USD (36.4), HOOD (36.8), ETH-USD (38), SOL-USD (38.1). Among these, ETH-USD, SOL-USD, XRP-USD and HOOD hold their 200-days; RIOT, BKKT, BITQ and DOGE-USD do not.
Neutral / Strong (RSI 40+): the rest. Highest: IBIT (50.1), GBTC (49.9), DOT-USD (49.3), BITO (49.1). Nothing above 51.
Relative Strength And Flows
No dominance or fund-flow figure exists in this source; price is the proxy. Bitcoin fell 1.22% against ether's 3.02%, Solana's 4.78%, Dogecoin's 6.12%, XRP's 7.14%, Polkadot's 7.26% and Cardano's 7.74%, so Bitcoin gained ground on the alts again; 30-day gains remain large for AVAX-USD (up 33.2%), ADA-USD (up 14.28%), DOT-USD (up 12.75%) and LINK-USD (up 10.95%), so alt season is not in evidence this week but the month is not broken. IBIT (down 0.86%), GBTC (down 0.99%) and BITO (down 1.09%) stayed within a fraction of a point of Bitcoin's 1.22%, and ETHE (down 2.57%) within half a point of ether's 3.02%. Creations, redemptions and premiums are not in this source; spot ETF flow data is a missing-data request, not an inference.
Risk Gauge
🟠 Equity-led washout, coin intact. This week's order reversed last week's: Bitcoin fell 1.22%, ether 3.02%, the alts 4% to 8%, and the equities with crypto exposure 3% to 22% (Strategy down 11.35%, the miners down 18.77% to 21.97%). The broad market did not stay out of it: the Nasdaq-100 fund QQQM was down 5.54% to RSI 35 and the S&P 500 fund VOO down 1.95% (from the ETF summary). With the coin 12.7% above its 200-day and its equities at or near capitulation readings, the tape says appetite left through equity beta. A Bitcoin close under its shelf ($78,475.57) would turn a stress in equities into a risk-off in the asset; a Strategy close back above its 20-day ($156.40) with the miners off their lows would reverse it.
Entry Zones
Conditions, not advice. Levels come from the price summaries.
| Ticker | Entry Zone | Thesis |
|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD | Current $81541.67; 20-day $83563.45, 50-day $81252.68, shelf $78475.57, 200-day $72360.15 | Long trend intact on a negative year; holding the 50-day or the shelf is the flag condition, a 20-day reclaim comes before any breakout |
| IBIT | Current $46.15; shelf $44.57, 200-day $41.8 | The listed wrapper for the same condition |
| ETH-USD | Current $2410.44; 20-day $2585.59, shelf $2249.72, 200-day $2144.67 | Near oversold above its 200-day; the shelf has to hold |
| MSTR | Current $136.83; 200-day $135.6, shelf $123.88 | On its 200-day with an unresolved death cross; the line and the shelf are the floor |
| MARA / RIOT / CLSK | MARA $7.53 (200-day $10.95); RIOT $13.72 ($19.5); CLSK $8.4 ($12.53) | Capitulation readings far under 200-days; no zone until a reclaim of the 20-day |
| COIN | Current $173.16; 200-day $182.32, shelf $163.5 | Under its 200-day on a negative year; reclaim first |
Action Matrix
| Ticker | Signal | Action | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD, IBIT, GBTC, BITO | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Trend intact, momentum neutral, under the 20-day |
| ETH-USD, ETHE | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Near oversold above the 200-day |
| SOL, AVAX, LINK, DOT, ADA | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Above 200-days, deeply negative years |
| XRP-USD | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Near oversold, thin cushion over its 200-day |
| DOGE-USD | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Under its 200-day |
| MARA, RIOT, CLSK | 🔴 | ❌ Don't buy | Capitulation readings, far under 200-days |
| MSTR | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | On its 200-day, death cross |
| COIN, BKKT, BITQ | 🔴 | ⚠️ Avoid | Under 200-days |
| HOOD | 🟡 | 🔍 Watch | Above its 200-day, negative year |
| ZCSH, BHYP, HYPG, ETHB, GLNK | 🟡 | 🔍 Research | Identity or history not verified; price only |
What To Watch Next
- Bitcoin's 50-day ($81,252.68) and shelf ($78,475.57). Price is only just above the first; a break points at the 200-day ($72,360.15).
- Ether's shelf ($2,249.72). The 200-day ($2,144.67) sits underneath.
- Strategy's 200-day ($135.60). It closed $136.83; a close under it, with the shelf at $123.88, extends the washout.
- Do MARA and CLSK stabilize from RSI 22.9 and 23.3? A rise back over their 20-days ($10.92, $12.11) would be the first repair.
- Does the equity side recover? QQQM's 20-day is $305.74 against a $292.26 close.
- Missing data: spot ETF flows and Bitcoin dominance are not in this source; ZCSH needs an issuer filing before any use.
Sources
- Tape data: pre-computed price summary, settled 2026-10-16 close for funds and equities (Polygon) and an October 16 intraday snapshot for coins (Yahoo Finance) (crypto); QQQM and VOO from the ETF summary (etf-ideas).
- Prior-week readings quoted for comparison (RSI, 200-day gaps, ZCSH identity as aggregator-reported, DOT as the only gainer): prior edition 2026-10-09-crypto-scan.
- No news, capture or stock-event pull was run for this edition; moves are described, not explained.
Related
9 eventsNo direct external sources are attached to this read.