BTC's regime label upgraded from collapse back to downtrend this cycle — price up to $65,044.46 with RSI climbing to 55.3 from 44.4 — a genuine structural improvement even as the 30-day print itself cooled slightly to +2.93% from +4.85%. As a risk-appetite read, that improvement is corroborated on the equity side: MSTR's 30-day print flipped positive to +6.54% (was -0.12%) after two straight cycles of deepening 3-month damage, and COIN bounced +5.63% in a single session, recovering from last cycle's -10.59% crash (30D improved to -3.61% from -8.15%). ADA broke into overbought territory — RSI 71.4 (was 52.9), 30D accelerating to +17.65% — the first coin in this universe to clear RSI 70 this cycle. The miner basket's prior uniform improvement split this cycle: MARA diverged weak, its regime downgrading to collapse (30D -16.06%, deepened further), while CLSK reversed back negative (30D -0.81%, was +1.03%) and RIOT continued improving (30D -2.70%, was -15.82%) — three different directions inside one basket.

Crypto coin rows carry a fresh 2026-08-08 weekend bar — crypto trades through the weekend, so this is a genuine same-basis update, not staleness. The ETF and equity proxies (IBIT, GBTC, ETHE, BITO, MSTR, COIN, MARA, RIOT, CLSK, BITQ) carry the 2026-08-07 Friday close, their correct last-traded session — the one-day gap between the two groups reflects each market's own trading calendar, not a data-freshness problem on either side. Source: crypto. Prior scan: 2026-07-31-crypto-scan (2026-07-31 close).

BTC's regime label genuinely improved this cycle, even as its 30-day print cooled in magnitude. BTC ($65,044.46, RSI 55.3, was 44.4) climbed on 1D +0.25%, 7D +3.63% — the regime label moved from collapse back to downtrend, still -50.2%-class distance from its 52-week high territory (-48.5% this cycle) and death-crossed at -7.4% below its 200-day. The 30-day print itself eased to +2.93% from +4.85% — a reminder that a rolling-window comparison can cool even while price and RSI both rise, since the 30-day-ago reference point also moved forward. ETH ($1,921.00, RSI 57.2, was 50.6) followed the same pattern — price and RSI both higher, 30D cooling to +10.12% from +15.6%, still the best 30-day print among the majors. SOL-USD ($76.29, RSI 55.2, was 42.4) continued improving on its now-established fresh baseline, 30D narrowing to -2.25% from -5.69%.

ADA broke into overbought territory this cycle — the first coin in this universe to clear RSI 70. ($0.20, RSI 71.4, was 52.9; 7D +17.65%, 30D +17.65%, unchanged across both windows this session) — a sharp acceleration from last cycle's "resolved a flagged flat print" story. LINK ($8.33, RSI 52.4, was 46.9; 30D +7.76%, was +10.61%) cooled slightly but stays positive. XRP ($1.05, RSI 42.8, was 40.2; 30D -3.67%, was +0.95%) flipped negative on the month even as its regime label improved to downtrend from collapse — a genuinely mixed signal worth separating from the price move itself. AVAX ($6.54, RSI 49.9, was 45.8; 30D -2.1%, was -3.6%) improved modestly. DOT ($0.82, RSI 49.1, was 33.1; 30D -1.2%, was -8.43%) posted this cycle's largest RSI improvement among the coins — no longer the clear weakest of the group. DOGE ($0.07, RSI 37.4) again shows 0.00% change across the 1-day, 7-day, and 30-day windows, the continuing rounding artifact of its sub-cent price.

The spot-ETF layer's regime labels broadly improved this cycle. IBIT ($36.80, RSI 51.9, was 45.0; 30D +4.46%, was +4.82%) moved to downtrend from collapse. GBTC ($50.30, RSI 51.8, was 44.8; 30D +4.27%) and BITO ($8.79, RSI 51.9, was 44.5; 30D +4.27%) both followed the same pattern. ETHE ($15.46, RSI 55.3, was 51.1; 30D +10.11%, was +15.41%) cooled from its lead but remains the strongest of the four proxies, still tracking ETH's continued outperformance of BTC.

The miner basket split into three separate directions this cycle, breaking last cycle's uniform improvement. MARA ($10.09, RSI 38.2, was 44.7; 1D -5.26%, 30D -16.06%, was -15.33%) diverged clearly weak — its regime label downgraded to collapse from downtrend, the only miner to deteriorate further this cycle. CLSK ($12.30, RSI 41.7, was 48.0; 1D -3.53%, 30D -0.81%, was +1.03%) reversed back negative after last cycle's flip to positive — regime downgraded to downtrend from pullback. RIOT ($20.52, RSI 45.0, was 44.4; 1D -3.25%, 30D -2.70%, was -15.82%) continued genuinely improving, the one clean positive story in the basket. BITQ ($22.88, RSI 45.2, was 44.7; 30D -3.99%, was -6.6%) improved modestly, roughly tracking the basket average. All four retain their golden cross.

MSTR and COIN both improved this cycle, reversing last cycle's worsening story. MSTR ($100.01, RSI 49.9, was 42.8; 1D +3.26%) saw its 30-day print flip to +6.54% from -0.12%, and its 3-month print eased marginally to -46.69% from -47.35% — a genuine, if early, stabilization after two straight cycles of deepening damage. It remains death-crossed, collapse regime, -76.3% off its 52-week high. COIN ($153.60, RSI 46.7, was 40.4; 1D +5.63%) bounced back from last cycle's -10.59% single-day crash — 7D +5.02%, 30D improving to -3.61% from -8.15%. Both remain collapse regime on the long-run definition, but the immediate-term direction has clearly turned.

As a risk-appetite gauge, this cycle reads more cleanly bullish than the prior one, but not uniformly. BTC's regime upgrade, MSTR's 30-day flip, and COIN's bounce off its crash all point the same direction — genuine risk-on. But the miner basket's three-way split (MARA weak, CLSK reversed, RIOT strong) means the highest-beta corner of this universe is not confirming a single unified signal, and ADA's move into overbought territory is worth watching for a pullback rather than treating as confirmation of broader strength.

regime tags (collapse/downtrend/pullback) describe structure, not a trade call. This cycle's central tension is between a broadly improving coin/ETF layer and BTC/MSTR/COIN bellwether read — all pointing toward genuine risk-on — set against a miner basket that split into three separate directions rather than moving together. Treat the coin-layer improvement and the miner-basket split as two separate signals: a single-day bounce in COIN or a regime upgrade in BTC is not the same evidence as MARA's continued deterioration inside the same basket. The coin rows' fresh 2026-08-08 weekend bar and the equity/ETF rows' 2026-08-07 Friday close are each correctly dated to their own market's last trading session — the gap between them is a calendar artifact of crypto trading weekends, not a staleness signal on either side.

ETH continues to outpace BTC on the month (+10.12% vs +2.93%), though both cooled in 30-day magnitude even as price and RSI rose — a rolling-window effect, not a reversal. ADA's break into overbought territory (RSI 71.4) is this cycle's clearest alt-layer move, the first coin to clear RSI 70 in this tracked window. DOT posted the largest single-cycle RSI improvement of the group, no longer the clear weakest coin. XRP is the one coin that flipped negative on 30D even as its regime label improved — worth tracking as a separate signal from the broader coin-layer strength.

IBIT, GBTC, and BITO all saw their regime labels improve from collapse to downtrend, tracking the underlying BTC improvement. ETHE cooled from its lead but still extends ahead of the BTC-tracking proxies, consistent with ETH's continued outperformance. No independent flow signal is visible beyond spot-price tracking — the ETF layer simply mirrors its underlying coin.

Genuinely split this cycle — the uniform improvement flagged last cycle broke into three directions. MARA deteriorated further and its regime downgraded to collapse. CLSK reversed back negative after flipping positive last cycle. RIOT continued improving cleanly. BITQ tracked the basket average. All four retain their golden cross, meaning the long-term structure hasn't broken through any of this cycle's divergence.

Both improved this cycle, reversing last cycle's worsening story. MSTR's 30-day print flipped positive for the first time in several cycles. COIN bounced off its single-day crash, though its 30-day print stays negative. Both remain collapse regime on the long-run definition — this cycle's improvement is a genuine but early stabilization, not a structural reversal yet.

DOT's -83.2% and ADA's -80.3% from their 52-week highs remain the widest reference points in the coin layer. MARA's -52.1% off high, paired with its regime downgrade, makes it this cycle's weakest name in the equities tier. RIOT's -29.1% is the narrowest in the equities tier, consistent with its status as the one clean positive story in the miner basket.

BTC's regime upgrade, MSTR's 30-day flip, and COIN's bounce off its crash together read as a genuine risk-on signal this cycle. But the miner basket's three-way split — MARA weak, CLSK reversed, RIOT strong — means the highest-beta corner of this universe is not confirming a single unified direction, and ADA's move into overbought territory is a name to watch for a pullback rather than treat as further confirmation of broad-based strength.

• Tape data (price/RSI/SMA/returns): full-scan pre-computed summaries — coins as of the 2026-08-08 weekend bar, ETFs/equities as of the 2026-08-07 close — crypto.